The Sacramento Kings and Houston Rockets ended the previous month on a high note, and with the playoff push slowly beginning, a fast start to March would benefit both sides.
With the Rockets returning Fred VanVleet from injury and holding some advantages in the frontcourt, our Kings vs. Rockets predictions will make sense of a rather heavy line favoring the home side.
Let’s dig into some NBA player props and hand out some NBA picks on Saturday, March 1.
Kings vs Rockets prediction
My best bet
Houston Rockets -5.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Sacramento Kings have added a new layer to their offense since acquiring Zach LaVine, stretching their offense out a bit to include the 3-point line. In February, they ranked inside the top 10 in outside shooting, according to Cleaning the Glass, while maintaining their excellence in the mid-range.
Scoring at the rim continues to be a struggle, and that will be an interesting storyline to watch against the Houston Rockets, considering they sat in the bottom 10 defensively in that zone.
The tough part is that Houston’s defense has otherwise remained excellent, slowing shooters in both of those aforementioned zones beyond the restricted area, and Sacramento’s emphasis on shooting in the mid-range and at the rim will likely slow this offense.
Houston has had some similar tendencies, ranking down near the bottom of the league in shot frequency from outside, something that may hurt it here, considering the Kings’ defense has been excellent at the rim and in the long mid-range with some awful numbers against the 3.
This should be a game that features both teams forcing the issue inside – and we’ve got dueling narratives here with a poor Rockets defensive frontcourt heading up against a Kings team that has struggled to score down there and the reverse taking place on the other end of the floor.
I trust in Houston’s interior scorers here a heck of a lot more than I trust the Kings, and with both teams sitting nearly equal on the glass and in Net Rating over the last month I can see why this line is priced the way it is.
Houston is the better team right now, particularly with the Kings figuring out how to make their offense run most efficiently with a new point guard, leading me to lay the points.
Kings vs Rockets same-game parlay
Houston Rockets -5.5
Zach LaVine 3+ made threes
Fred VanVleet Over 4.5 assists
The Kings may not be taking a ton of shots from outside, but that doesn’t really pertain to Zach LaVine.
The guard has shot 7.8 times on average from outside in his nine games with Sacramento, up almost a full attempt from what we saw in Chicago over the last three and a half years, and while he started slow, he’s now shot 52.8% over his last four games while averaging nine attempts.
We’ve covered how vulnerable the Rockets are around the arc, so I like LaVine to cash in on this number after hitting four 3-pointers in three of his last four.
Then, we’ll have to take advantage of this weak Kings defense, which has allowed the second-most assists per 100 possessions in the last month – and we’ll do so with Fred VanVleet.
Yes, Sacramento’s rim defense has been excellent, but point guards have still held the largest share of these assists by some margin – and in his return from injury I expect VanVleet to work as more of a distributor.
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Kings vs Rockets odds
Kings vs Rockets live odds
Kings vs Rockets opening odds
- Spread: Sacramento +4 (-110) | Houston -4 (-110)
- Moneyline: Sacramento +145 | Houston -170
- Over/Under: Over 227.5 (-110) | Under 227.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Kings vs Rockets spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Rockets have received plenty of love from bettors, with the line immediately moving a half point in their favor upon opening and heading up as high as 5.5.
- The Rockets make up 77% of the bets and 63% of the handle wagered on the spread.
- The total seemed to be quietly making its way up on Friday night before spiking 2.5 points and settling at 230.5.
- The Over has accounted for 70% of the bets but just 54% of the money.
Kings vs Rockets trend
The Houston Rockets have covered the Spread in 48 of their last 82 games (+10.60 Units / 12% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Kings vs. Rockets.
How to watch Kings vs Rockets
| Location | Toyota Center, Houston, Texas |
| Date | Saturday, 3-1-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBCSCA, SCHN |
Kings vs Rockets latest injuries
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