Knicks vs Bucks Picks and Predictions: Can Hobbled Bucks Outrun Knicks?

The New York Knicks have lost back-to-back games coming into this meeting with the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks, and Jrue Holiday is set to return for Milwaukee in this one. This game should be played with some serious intensity, but it is worth noting that the Bucks are going to be without both Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez. 

Can New York — who the betting odds have as a 5-point underdog — cover in Milwaukee? Keep reading our Knicks vs. Bucks picks and predictions for Friday, November 5 to find out. 

Knicks vs Bucks odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

The Knicks were originally 5-point underdogs against the Bucks, but the line is mostly 4.5 at the moment. The tickets on this game are essentially split. Meanwhile, the total opened at 217.5 in this one, but it has since found itself moving to anywhere between 216.5 and 217.5. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Knicks vs Bucks predictions

• Knicks +5.0 (-114)
• Over 216.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Barrett Over 16.5 Points (-110)

Predictions made on 11/5/2021 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Knicks vs Bucks game info

• Location: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
• Date: Friday, November 5, 2021
• Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN, NBALP

Knicks vs Bucks betting preview

Injuries

Knicks: None
Bucks: Khris Middleton F (Out), Brook Lopez C (Out), Donte DiVincenzo G (Out) 
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Knicks are 15-7 against the spread in their last 22 road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Knicks vs. Bucks.

Knicks vs Bucks picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

Last year, the Knicks surprisingly won two out of three games against the Bucks, and this New York squad is a lot better than last year’s group. Tom Thibodeau’s team is playing a completely different brand of basketball than it did last year, as the Knicks are actually elite on the offensive end now. They’ve made that change at the expense of their once-outstanding defense, but it should be a move that gives them more upside in the postseason. 

As far as this game goes, it’s no longer fair to ask the Bucks to go out and cover against the Knicks without Middleton or Lopez. Milwaukee will desperately miss Middleton’s shot-making ability in a game with a New York team that can really score the basketball, and the Bucks will also miss having Lopez to protect the rim and space the floor. Lopez’s ability to shoot would have pulled Mitchell Robinson and Nerlens Noel away from the basket, but they’ll now be able to focus on weak side shot-blocking. 

The return of Holiday should help to contain New York’s trio of on-ball guards, with Kemba Walker, Derrick Rose and Immanuel Quickley all being viable threats on offense. Holiday is one of the best perimeter defenders in the league, as he has the ability to pick up his opponents for the full length of the floor.

The problem for Milwaukee is that the Knicks have offense all over the floor now. If Holiday picks up the point guards, that would leave a guy like Evan Fournier with a mismatch. He’s plenty capable of making the Bucks pay for any mistakes they make. Middleton’s loss will also mean that Milwaukee will be without a legitimate wing defender. Giannis Antetokounmpo should be able to stifle his man in this game, but the Bucks simply don’t have the depth to deal with any significant losses on defense. 

Defensively, the Knicks should be able to throw enough looks at Antetokounmpo to somewhat contain him. At the very least, it’s hard to imagine the rest of Milwaukee’s role players doing enough to support Holiday and Antetokounmpo here. 

Considering how passionate this Knicks team is, it wouldn’t be all that surprising if they won outright here. However, taking the points is the move against a championship-level team like the Bucks. They can play poorly and still end up finishing in the win column. 

Prediction: Knicks +5.0 (-114)

Over/Under analysis

Last year, these teams went Over the total in two of the three games they played. The one game that failed to hit the number also happened to see the two teams combining to score 235 points, which is much higher than tonight’s number. Also, while it’s a very small sample size, it is worth noting that the Over is 3-0 in New York’s road games this season. 

In addition to that, the Knicks are third in the league in offensive rating and get to face a Bucks team that is only 15th in defensive rating. New York should be able to impose its will on this game and turn it into a high-scoring one. 

Prediction: Over 216.5 (-110)

Best bet

RJ Barrett is in the middle of a breakout year for the Knicks, as he’s averaging 19.1 points per game on 49.1 percent shooting from the floor and 41.7 percent shooting from three. The 21-year-old has made a number of timely shots for New York already, and he is also playing the best defense of his career right now. 

Barrett might end up needing to expend a lot of energy on the defensive end in this game, as it’s entirely possible he’ll be matched up with Antetokounmpo on some possessions. However, it’s hard to imagine Barrett being so wiped that he can’t score 17 against a defense that is not playing well right now. He should get a lot of open looks in this game, which is likely to be more high-scoring than the oddsmakers thought. 

Pick: RJ Barrett Over 16.5 Points (-110)

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