Editor's note: this preview was originally written and published prior to the news that Lakers star LeBron James would not play tonight.
A Knicks-Lakers NBA Finals would be Adam Silver’s wet dream but for now, the commish will have to settle for a high-stakes, late-season, coast-to-coast showdown Tuesday night.
The Los Angeles Lakers are NBA betting favorites hosting the New York Knicks, despite star forward LeBron James not returning to the lineup as originally expected. Los Angeles sits seventh in the West, currently pegged for a spot in the play-in tournament. The Knicks, on the other hand, are clinging to fourth in the East and wrapping up a six-game Western road swing in L.A.
Check out our free NBA picks and predictions for Knicks vs. Lakers on May 11.
Knicks vs Lakers odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NBA Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonThe Lakers opened as 5.5-point chalk at TwinSpires, then dropped to -3 on news that LeBron James (ankle) is sitting out tonight. As of 6:45 p.m. ET, the line remains Lakers -3, while the Knicks are taking 65 percent of spread bets and 70 percent of spread money. "The Lakers are shaping up to be one of our bigger needs of the day," TwinSpires trading analyst Zachary Lucas said. The total slipped from 213.5 to 211, with the Under nabbing 77 percent of tickets/68 percent of cash.
Check out the full line movement for this gameKnicks at Lakers betting preview
Injuries
Knicks: Immanuel Quickley G (Questionable), Alec Burks G (Questionable), Mitchell Robinson C (Out).
Lakers: LeBron James F (Out), Kyle Kuzma F (Questionable), Dennis Schroder G (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Knicks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as road underdogs. Find more NBA betting trends for Knicks vs. Lakers.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The expected return of LeBron puffed this spread up earlier in the day, but now the Lakers will rely more on their other superstar, Anthony Davis, in tonight's matchup against the Knicks.
James played two games after coming back from an ankle injury that sidelined him since late March, then sat out the next four games — tonight will be his five in a row — as the ankle pain flared up.
Davis has done a good job carrying the Lakers without LeBron in that span, coming up big in home wins over Denver and Phoenix. However, L.A.’s fate on Tuesday won’t be decided by Davis. Rather, it will be the Lakers’ role players who need to come to play against one of the toughest defenses in the NBA.
Starting forward Andre Drummond has been invisible in May, totaling just 23 points over the past four games while shooting 9 for 21 from the field and committing nine turnovers. Kyle Kuzma continues to run hot and cold, swapping 25-point efforts for 4-point flounderings and missing Sunday’s game with a back injury.
The loss of Dennis Schroder could arguably have a larger impact on this offense than James sitting again, since L.A. has grown accustomed to life without LeBron. Schroder is out of action due to COVID-19 protocols, leaving the Lakers’ backcourt energy to come from Alex Caruso and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.
The Knicks are a smothering team and just checked the L.A. Clippers to 100 points on Sunday, turning up the intensity in the second half. New York limited the other L.A. team to just 46 points on under 41 percent shooting in the final 24 minutes, winning 106-100 as an 8-point road underdog.
Unlike the Lakers, the Knicks’ success over the past month — and more specifically on this current road trip (3-2 SU and ATS) — is due to dependable depth. New York is getting almost 44 points per game off the bench in those last five outings, with veteran guard Derrick Rose leading that charge.
The Knicks are once again catching points Tuesday, a role they’ve thrived in, going 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as a dog.
PREDICTION: New York +4.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Even without LeBron, the Lakers have maintained their elite defensive status. Los Angeles ranks atop the NBA’s defensive rating metric and allows only 107.8 points per game inside the Staples Center this season, leading to a 15-19 Over/Under mark as a host and a 3-8 O/U count in its last 11 games as home chalk.
New York gives up league lows in points, field goal and 3-point percentage and will collapse on the interior, trying to cool off Davis and keep the ball out of his hands. The Knicks have improved their post-up defense and budge for just 43.7 points in the paint per contest.
That puts the pressure on L.A.’s struggling support staff. New York can pack the paint knowing the Lakers aren’t much of a 3-point threat, shooting a mere 33.8 percent from distance at home this year (second lowest in the NBA).
PREDICTION: Under 213.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
Second-year standout R.J. Barrett has been instrumental in the Knicks’ springtime surge, most notably knocking down looks from beyond the arc.
Since April, New York is shooting an NBA-high 42.5 percent from downtown, making an average of almost 14 triples per game—and Barrett has been behind a good chunk of those makes.
He fired at over 48 percent from 3-point range last month and has started May going 17 for 34 from distance, making three or more triples in four of five games this month.
He’s coming off a 4-for-7 performance from 3-point land in Sunday’s win over the Clippers.
PREDICTION: R.J. Barrett 3 or more 3-pointers (+130)
Knicks vs Lakers betting card
- New York +4.5 (-110)
- Under 213.5 (-110)
- R.J. Barrett 3 or more 3-pointers (+130)
Picks made on 5/11/2021 at 10:31 a.m. ET
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