Lakers vs Cavaliers Picks and Predictions: AD Stands For Absolutely Dominant

Anthony Davis has brought the Los Angeles Lakers back from the brink. The Brow has been playing god-tier basketball just when the Lakers needed it most, helping the Lake Show go 8-2 over their last 10 games. However, they’re still just 13th in the Western Conference and their schedule in December is absolutely hellacious, continuing with their matchup against the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.

The Cavaliers have been trying to tread water with Jarrett Allen out of the lineup, and are coming off a tough loss to a floundering Knicks team where they only managed to score 82 points.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Lakers vs. Cavaliers zero in on Davis' MVP play, and why he should continue his string of high-scoring performances tonight.

Lakers vs Cavaliers best odds

Lakers vs Cavaliers picks and predictions

Anthony Davis is finally healthy and silencing all the critics. His move to playing the five full-time, long called for by supporters and deriders alike, has unlocked his game on both ends. 

Davis is averaging 35.2 points per game over his last five on 66.7% shooting from the field in addition to 13.4 rebounds and 3.2 blocks. While this bet is solely concerned with his scoring, his overall floor game is a great indicator of his elite compete level over this recent span. He is bruising and battering his way to the basket, eating opponents alive on the offensive glass, and erasing their efforts at the rim. 

He is playing some of the best basketball of his career, and to a level that many thought was no longer possible. Whether he can maintain this level of production over the long grind of an 82-game season is still a question, but the current dominant level his play has reached is not.

Tonight will be another serious test, though perhaps not as tough as it appears on paper. To be sure, Cleveland has a great defense. It's second in the NBA with a 108.5 defensive rating per Cleaning the Glass. But they’ve been missing Jarrett Allen, their defensive anchor, for five games now and are beginning to show signs of attrition.

Allen is unquestionably the team’s best defender and the Cavaliers are seven points better on defense when he’s on the floor. At the time of writing, his status remains in doubt for Tuesday’s game due to a lingering back injury. 

But I can hear you say already, isn’t the beauty of playing two bigs in Allen and Evan Mobley that Mobley can simply slide in to replace Allen when he’s out injured?

There were some who believed that Mobley eclipsed Allen as the Cavaliers’ best defender the moment he suited up as a rookie, but the statistical argument was thin at best. Still, many projected that Mobley would be an All-Defense player this season and even a few suggested he might be a dark horse for Defensive Player of the Year.

That talk has proven to be immature. While Mobley remains a supreme talent and prospect, he is not yet ready to be a defense unto himself the way a true First Team All-Defense center must be. After being a slight positive in his first season (mostly in minutes shared with Allen, mind you) the Cavaliers are 5.5 points worse on defense this season with Mobley on the floor. Mobley has immense versatility but he doesn’t have the fundamentals or reps to be the traditional backline defender of an elite defense, and he doesn’t have the strength or frame to stand against AD.

It bears repeating that Davis is playing as well as anybody in the NBA over his last nine-game stretch. He’s had six games of 30 points or more, including 44 and 55 in his last two. 

While it wasn’t quite so impressive earlier in this streak when he was tearing through the tissue paper defense of the San Antonio Spurs, that 44-point game came against the fully healthy Milwaukee Bucks, the best defense in the NBA. He’s also hit the Over on his points total in eight of his last nine games, something I expect him to do again tonight.

My best bet: Anthony Davis Over 27.5 points (-103)

Lakers vs Cavaliers spread analysis

The key to life is managing expectations. The Lakers got off to such a bad start this season that bettors and sportsbooks have perhaps begun to overlook them a bit too much. That taken with Davis’ recent stretch has contributed to the Lakers going 5-1 against the spread in their last six games. 

Moving Russell Westbrook to the bench and inserting Austin Reaves into the starting lineup has balanced the first and second units brilliantly, and, oddly enough, it’s only the poor shooting by LeBron James currently holding the Lakers back from being a dynamic two-way team. I don’t expect that to last, and L.A.’s game against the Bucks provided a brief glimpse of what a fully actualized Lakers team could look like in practice.

But the Cavaliers have been consistently excellent at defending home court this season. They’re 11-1-1 ATS in their previous 13 home games and are surely motivated after an uncharacteristic loss to the Knicks.

Lakers vs Cavaliers Over/Under analysis

The Total for Tuesday’s game has been set at 224, perhaps a tad lower than expected after Cleveland has had a string of low-scoring games over the last two weeks. Some of that has been anomalous shooting, as in their most recent game against the Knicks where they shot just 8-for-35 on 3-pointers. 

The Lakers defense is still weak against the level of pull-up shooting the Cavaliers have with Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell in the backcourt, so I don’t expect a repeat shooting performance against L.A. And at a glacial 96.1 possessions per game, the Cavs are also the slowest team in the NBA in terms of overall pace. That’s contributed to the Under cashing in five straight Cavs games. 

The Lakers are on the opposite end of the spectrum. They’ve been leaning into five-out basketball more and more of late which has been a contributing factor to Davis’ success inside. The Over is 4-1 in the Lakers' last five overall as well as 9-1 in their last 10 against winning teams.

Perhaps the deciding factor though is that the Cavaliers' second-best defender in terms of on/off statistics, Dean Wade, is expected to miss 3-4 weeks with a shoulder sprain. Wade moves his feet well and plays solid team defense, and his replacements don’t have the size or strength to match up with LeBron.

Lakers vs Cavaliers betting trend to know

The Over is 4-1 in Lakers' last 5 overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Cavaliers.

Lakers vs Cavaliers game info

Lakers vs Cavaliers key injuries

Pages related to this topic