The Los Angeles Lakers won't go down without a fight. They have a great opportunity to chip away against the Denver Nuggets tonight.
After Denver failed to close out the series in Game 4's 119-108 loss, my Lakers vs. Nuggets predictions weigh Jamal Murray's potential absence against who might step up for L.A. with the series still on the line.
The NBA Playoff odds opened the Nuggets as high as 8.5-point home favorites for Game 5 but Murray’s uncertain status has shrunk that spread to as low as -7.
I break down that point spread and give my best NBA picks on April 29.
Lakers vs Nuggets predictions
My best bet
D’Angelo Russell Over 4.5 assists (+105 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
The Los Angeles Lakers need another big effort from guard D'Angelo Russell if they are going to take advantage of momentum and a dinged-up Denver Nuggets lineup.
Russell has been inconsistent in this series to put it lightly but is coming off a solid performance in Game 4 with 21 points and four assists.
His playmaking has taken a hit in this opening-round series, watching his assist average slump from 6.3 in the regular season to fewer than four in the postseason. That’s shrunk his assist prop totals from 5.5 O/U to open the series to 4.5 tonight. The Over is paying plus-money at some sportsbooks on Monday morning.
If Jamal Murray does sit out, Denver has depth and lineup issues in the backcourt. Reggie Jackson has been a super-sub whenever Murray misses time this year, but he’s also questionable as he deals with an ankle injury that has limited him in the postseason.
With those guards sidelined, the Nuggets would need to slide Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to the smaller guard to roll out a bigger lineup, putting 6-foot-6 Christian Braun and 6-foot-7 Peyton Watson on the perimeter. That length takes away outside shooting but provides Russell with opportunities to put the ball on the floor and create.
Some of Russell’s shortened assist outputs have to do with poor shooting from his teammates. He’s still averaging seven potential assists for the series and had 11 potential dimes in Saturday’s Game 4 (finishing with four).
Player projections for D-Lo all call for five-plus assists tonight, with a ceiling of more than seven. My number comes out to 6.1 assists for Russell, a forecast that should have the Over 4.5 priced in the -250 range — not offering a tasty return of +105.
Lakers vs Nuggets same-game parlay (SGP)
D'Angelo Russell Over 4.5 assists
Aaron Gordon Over 3.5 assists
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 1.5 rebounds
Russell’s assist numbers haven’t been great but he’s coming off 11 potential assists in Game 4 and player projections call for as many as seven-plus dimes.
If Murray is out, Aaron Gordon can step up in the pick-and-roll gameplan. He’s an underrated passer and his forecast calls for more than four assists in Game 5.
KCP will be putting in minutes if both Murray and Jackson sit, which includes stepping up on the glass. He’s projected for closer to three boards tonight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Lakers vs Nuggets odds
Lakers vs Nuggets live odds
Get the latest Lakers vs Nuggets NBA playoff odds for Game 5.
Lakers vs Nuggets opening odds
- Spread: Los Angeles +8.5 (-115) | Denver -8.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Los Angeles +270 | Denver -340
- Over/Under: Over 218.5 (-110) | Under 218.5 (-110)
Lakers vs Nuggets spread and Over/Under analysis
- This spread has slipped to as low as Nuggets -7 at some sharper books.
- The Nuggets’ advanced offensive rating dips from 114.6 to 104.2 when Murray is off the floor this series.
- The Over/Under has since moved to as low as 216.5 O/U.
- According to Covers Consensus data, 54% of picks are laying the points with Denver, despite Murray’s mystery status. BetMGM sportsbooks are reporting even more support for the home side, drawing 60% of the ticket count and 89% of the money on the Nuggets.
- As for the total, BetMGM is reporting 72% of the bet count and 88% of the handle on the Over.
Lakers vs Nuggets trend
The Los Angeles Lakers have won outright on the 1H Moneyline in 31 of their last 48 games (+17.85 Units). Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Nuggets.
Lakers vs Nuggets game info
| Location: | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date: | Monday, 4-29-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Lakers vs Nuggets latest injuries
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