Lakers vs Nuggets Game 2 Player Props: Jokic Hands Out the Helpers

The Denver Nuggets secured Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals, but the Los Angeles Lakers showed some late life to turn a 20-point game into a scarily close contest in the closing minutes. Los Angeles would like to put together a more complete performance and steal home court on Thursday night, while Denver will look to head into L.A. with a 2-0 lead to their name.

Here are our best free NBA player prop picks for Game 2 on Thursday, May 18th. We also have a full breakdown of Lakers vs Nuggets Game 2 available.

Lakers vs Nuggets Game 2 player prop picks

• Porter Jr. first basket (+1000)
• Russell Over 12.5 points (-128)
• Jokic Over 10.5 assists (+110)

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Lakers vs Nuggets Game 2 props

Porter of things to come

In the five games the Lakers and Nuggets have played this season thus far, the Lakers have secured the opening tip in all but one, and Anthony Davis in particular went 3-1 head to head with Nikola Jokic (Thomas Bryant secured the other opening tip). Intuitively, you may think that that would create some value on a Lakers player to score the first basket.

However, there is more to it. Despite Anthony Davis having won 59% of his opening tips this year, the Lakers have scored the first field goal just 52% of the time. This season it has taken them 2.1 field goal attempts to score their first team basket.

Conversely, Jokic has won just 48% of his opening tips this season, yet Denver has scored the first basket 54% of the time. It has taken them just 1.9 FGA to get their first field goal.

With all of this in mind, Michael Porter Jr. stands out as an obvious candidate for this prop. He has scored the game's first field goal 14% of the time this season, yet his price for Game 2 is +1000, which carries an implied probability of 9.1%. That much value on these props is hard to find, and although it's a longshot, it's a +EV proposition nonetheless.

PICK: Porter Jr. first basket (+1000)

D'Excellent

Game 1 featured a lot of impressive scoring performances, including the likes of Davis (40), Jokic (34), Jamal Murray (31), LeBron James (26), and Austin Reaves (23). But when it comes to the playoffs and the plethora of game-to-game adjustments, you more often than not want to zig-zag when it comes to betting on player scoring.

D'Angelo Russell stands out as someone whose Game 2 prop (O/U 12.5 points) doesn't match his track record thus far. He has scored over that mark in eight of 13 playoff games thus far, his median points across those 13 games is 17, and his average is 15.1.

Even when looking at his regular season body of work against the Nuggets, he has scored under 13 points just once in the regular season across his last 12 games (although it should be noted all those games were while he was on the Timberwolves).

To make matters easier, there are a select few shops hanging a juiced 12.5 for those that like to line shop.

PICK: Russell Over 12.5 points (-128)

Jokic kicks it out

The most obvious Game 2 adjustment from either team will be how the Lakers answer Jokic's absurd Game 1 performance. That will likely come in the form of double teams inside and aggressive help on the perimeter and in screen actions.

Jokic will likely see a downtick in scoring, much like he has following most of his larger scoring performances this postseason. After his 43 points in Game 4 of the opening round, the Timberwolves held him to 28 the next game. Following his 39 points in Game 2 against the Suns, he scored 30 in Game 3. And after his monstrous 53 points in Game 4 of that same series, he scored 29 in Game 5. 

Those follow-up numbers are a bit too close to tonight's line, which ranges anywhere from 28.5 to 29.5, but there is another angle to attack. With other shooters open, Jokic can impact the game through his passing, and he did so in those aforementioned games following large scoring totals.

When it came to assists, he had 12, 12, 17, and 12 in those subsequent games, and his line tonight is set at 10.5.

PICK: Jokic Over 10.5 assists (+110)

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