Lakers vs Warriors Game 5 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Rui Looks to Stretch Dubs Thin

The Golden State Warriors aren’t going down without a fight and the NBA betting lines would agree, with the spread for Game 5 of this Western Conference semifinal set against the Los Angeles Lakers making a significant jump.

Golden State, facing elimination down 3-1 to L.A. on Wednesday, opened as low as a 5.5-point home favorite and that line has since run as high as -7.5 with one-way support of the reigning NBA champs.

The dive into the point spread as well as the Over/Under total for Game 5 and give my best NBA picks and predictions for Lakers at Warriors on May 10.

Lakers vs Warriors Game 5 best odds

Lakers vs Warriors Game 5 picks and predictions

There’s no shortage of superstars and future Hall of Famers on the floor in this crucial Game 5 contest, but the Lakers have found hidden heroes in their role players.

Austin Reaves, Lonnie Walker, Dennis Schroder, and Rui Hachimura have all had their time to shine during Los Angeles’ postseason run. I turn my attention to the latter of those names, with Hachimura getting inconsistent minutes in the first four games of this series, leading to lower point production.

He had a massive 21-point effort in Game 2, knocking down 8 of 14 shots in 22 minutes of action. However, he’s logged 11, 16, and 14 minutes in the other three games while scoring six, five, and two points.

That has Hachimura’s point total hacked down to 6.5 Over/Under for Game 5 — a three-point slide from his Game 3 number of 9.5 O/U. This is a "buy low" angle with risk involved, considering his lack of action. But there's too much of a gap between his points prop and his estimated scoring output to ignore.

Player projections for the Lakers forward range from seven points to as high as 14 for Game 5, all coming in Over his modest total of 6.5 points. My number grades out at just below 11 points for Rui tonight, which is ample scoring to get us past this prop total.

Los Angeles has been able to escape with wins despite poor shooting from outside, including a dismal 6-for-25 from deep in Game 4. Golden State is a much sharper shooting team from distance inside its own gym and the Lakers will call upon Hachimura to take and make shots from distance in order to counter those triples. He went 4-for-6 from beyond the arc in Game 2 and is 5-for-7 from 3-point range in the series.

Game script could also see Hachimura log more minutes than the past two games, with this spread climbing in favor of the Warriors. Should a desperate Golden State squad come out swinging and put some real distance between it and the Lakers, Hachimura will see added floor time if things get away from the Purple and Gold.

My best bet: Rui Hachimura Total Points Over 6.5 (-115)

Lakers vs Warriors Game 5 same-game parlay

Rui Hachimura 8+ Points +135

Austin Reaves Over 13.5 Points -110

Klay Thompson 4+ 3-Pointers -220

+500 at DraftKings

The SGP options are a little limited as of Wednesday morning, leaving us with Hachimura 8-plus points. As mentioned, I have him projected for around 11 points, so this prop works.

Also taking Reaves to go Over 13.5 points. His projections for Game 5 range from 13.4 to 18 points, with my number landing just past 15 points.

And with Golden State returning to the Chase Center, I like Klay Thompson to hit some big shots from beyond the arc. Thompson sees a major spike in his 3-point shooting at home and he’s averaging 4.6 makes from distance per home stand in the playoffs.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Lakers vs Warriors Game 5 spread and Over/Under analysis

After dropping both games in Los Angeles, including a 104-101 loss in Game 4, the Warriors opened as 5.5-point home chalk for Game 5 — a point higher than the closing spread for Game 1, but 1.5 points short of the closing line for Game 2, which the Dubs won easily, 127-100.

Early money didn’t agree with that original number and play on the home side has run this spread as much as two points at some sportsbooks. According to BetMGM books, 49% of bets are laying the points with the desperate Warriors in Game 5 but 59% of the money is going with Golden State, meaning larger and more respected wagers have faith in the Dubs.

Given just how drum-tight postseason spreads are, has any value sailed on the home side now that this line has climbed two points? There definitely has been a threshold in the NBA playoffs when it comes to larger point spreads. Favorites of -5.5 or less are 21-11-1 ATS (65%) while chalk of -6 or more own a 15-13 ATS count (54%) heading into Wednesday’s action.

Golden State has one of the most decisive home/away splits in the NBA, most notably on defense. During the regular season, the Warriors boasted a net rating of -4.2 on the road versus a +7.7 rating at home. During the postseason, this variance isn’t as prominent but still stands out, with a net rating of +4.1 as hosts versus -2.4 as visitors.

The Lakers’ results have also fluctuated based on venue, as their lockdown defense has softened away from La-La Land. Los Angeles, which ranked among the top defensive teams in the NBA after swapping out the bulk of the roster in mid-February, sees its postseason defensive rating balloon from a stingy 96.9 at home to 114.0 on the road.

Turnover troubles and a poor outside shooting performance doomed the Dubs in Game 4, coughing up the ball 16 times — including crucial giveaways in crunch time — and making only 12 of 41 shots from 3-point land. The Warriors do tend to take care of the ball better at home as well as enjoy a 39% success rate from distance inside the Chase Center, compared to 31% away from the Bay Area.

Tonight’s total hit the board between 226 and 226.5 and has stayed still for the most part, with 226 as the market consensus on Wednesday morning.

Should that total close there or lower, it would be the shortest Over/Under of the series, currently sitting below the past two closing O/U numbers of 229.5 and 228 with the two stops in L.A. staying Under the total after two Over results in Golden State.

The first two contests in San Francisco were played at a quicker tempo than the matchups in Los Angeles, boasting a pace rating of 101.25. The series slowed with the shift to L.A., with those two games owning a pace rating of 99.0. Game 4 finished with a slower tempo of 97.5.

According to BetMGM books, ticket count on the total is a dead-even 50/50, however the operator has taken 64% of the handle on the Over in Game 5.

Lakers vs Warriors betting trend to know

Under head coach Steve Kerr (since 2014-15), the Warriors are 17-2 SU and 13-6 ATS (68%) at home in the playoffs when coming off a loss in the previous game. Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Warriors.

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