Lakers vs Warriors Picks and Predictions: Lake Show Canceled Early

L.A.'s season is being put out of its misery. With resting stars and a struggling defense facing a Golden State squad trying to round into form, count on the home favorites to cruise — and their All-Star swingman to shine — as our Lakers vs. Warriors picks

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst
Apr 7, 2022 • 12:55 ET • 4 min read
Andrew Wiggins Golden State Warriors NBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

At this point in the NBA season, the best thing about the Los Angeles Lakers is HBO’s weekly “Winning Time” series based on the franchise’s brighter days. 

The current version of the Lakers is a bunch of lost souls, playing out a losing season after watching their playoff chances die a slow death over a seven-game losing skid. A listless Los Angeles squad heads to San Francisco to take on the Golden State Warriors tonight, with books pegging L.A. as a double-digit underdog. 

Check out our free NBA picks and predictions for Lakers at Warriors on April 7.

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Lakers vs Warriors odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Warriors opened as low as -10.5 but with the Lakers potentially being without stars LeBron James, Russell Westbrook, and Anthony Davis, that spread has climbed to -12.5. The total hit the board at 224.5 points and is down to 221.5 as of Thursday morning.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Lakers vs Warriors predictions

Predictions made on 4/7/2022 at 10:40 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Lakers vs Warriors game info

Location: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
Date: Thursday, April 7, 2022
Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
TV: TNT

Lakers vs Warriors betting preview

Key injuries

Lakers: LeBron James F (Questionable), Anthony Davis F (Questionable), Russell Westbrook G (Questionable), Kendrick Nunn G (Out).
Warriors: Otto Porter F (Questionable), Stephen Curry G (Out), James Wiseman C (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 10-4 in Lakers’ last 14 games as road underdogs and 3-1 in the four games in which L.A. closed as a double-digit underdog this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Warriors.

Lakers vs Warriors picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

While LeBron and the Lakers limp off into the sunset, the Warriors have big plans for the upcoming postseason. Golden State is guaranteed the No. 3 or No. 4 spot in the West, which means homecourt for the opening round. And with Stephen Curry cleared and working his way back from a foot injury, things are falling into place for the Dubs.

The Warriors enter this homestand on a two-game winning run, snapping an ugly four-game losing skid and putting a rough 1-7 slide behind them. Golden State needs to keep those positive vibes rolling and with veterans like Draymond Green and Klay Thompson leading the charge — kicking the Lakers when they’re down is the cherry on top of that momentum-building sundae.

The Warriors' recent woes were mainly due to poor defense, allowing more than 120 points in losses to Atlanta, Washington and Memphis. However, the Dubs’ defense did come to play in a 107-103 grinder versus Phoenix and has kept up that intensity the past three games, boasting a defensive rating of 103.8 in that short span while limiting those three foes – Phoenix, Utah, and Sacramento – to less than 41% success from the floor.

What variation of L.A. the Warriors face tonight is still up in the air, with its three stars all listed as questionable. James likely won’t go with a bum ankle, Westbrook was a fresh add to the injury report with a sore shoulder, and making Davis play through foot pain in meaningless games seems reckless. The big spread as well, as the line move to -12.5 would indicate books are banking on that Big 3 not showing up.

Steve Kerr still has a lot of work to do before the playoffs begin and only three games left to do so. Not only does he want to continue that solid defensive work but also boost up key role players like Andrew Wiggins and Jordan Poole while also continuing to work the rust off Thompson and Green.

Prediction: Golden State -12 (-110 at PointsBet)

Over/Under analysis

Los Angeles runs the risk of missing its big guns tonight, but the Lakers’ role players have put up a good fight when those marquee talents missed time – and boy did they. Los Angeles has gotten solid production from Malik Monk, Carmelo Anthony, and Talen Horton-Tucker when called upon in the second half of the season.

This team gets extremely small without LeBron and AD out there. Dwight Howard has watched his minutes tumble in recent games, meaning Frank Voguel will likely lean on a guard-heavy attack in these remaining contests, which could pick up the pace on offense but leave L.A. undersized on the other end of the floor.

Los Angeles’ defense has been hot garbage during this losing skid, watching foes hang 120-plus points in five of those seven Ls while allowing those opponents to fire at a 51.4% success rate from the field. The Lakers are 4-3 O/U during this skid and are 10-4 O/U in their last 14 outings as road underdogs. 

Golden State has plenty of ways to hurt opponents on offense, including the improved play of All-Star Andrew Wiggins and Jordan Poole. Wiggins hit the wall in early March but is beginning to find his form in recent outings, coming off a 25-point effort versus the Kings. Poole continues to hold down the fort with Curry sidelined, averaging 26.4 points over his last 22 games.

Prediction: Over 221.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Best bet

Wiggins is one guy Steve Kerr needs to get going before the playoffs. With Curry’s timetable still unknown and Klay and Draymond always a risk for injury, the Warriors really need their All-Star forward to play like one.

Wiggins looked the part in the latest win over Sacramento, shooting 8 of 16 from the floor – including 4 of 7 from beyond the arc – for 25 points. He also grabbed five rebounds and dished out five assists. After sleepwalking through most of March, Wiggins is averaging 20.3 points on 50% shooting over the past three contests and seeing his floor time spike to 34 minutes in that span.

If James is out of action, the versatile 6-foot-7 forward could feast on the least of the Lakers, drawing defense from either smaller guards or the aging legs of Anthony. We like Wiggins to exploit those matchups, get lots of playing time, and top his point total at home, where he shoots far better from deep and averages 17.6 points per game. 

Pick: Andrew Wiggins Over 16.5 points (-125 at Caesars)

NBA parlays

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Jason Logan Senior Industry Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst “JLo” has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.

Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he’s honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet.

He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous “NFL Underdogs” column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason’s first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns.

On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast – WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio – he’s had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers’ flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.

His best advice for bettors new and old is “Handicapping isn’t a ‘one size fits all’ process. The impact and importance of information varies from bet to bet. Treat each wager different than the last.”

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