After nearly breaking the internet last night by trading superstar Luka Doncic to the Lakers, the Dallas Mavericks have to play the best team in the Eastern Conference this afternoon as they take on the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Given Dallas’ up-and-down play this season with Doncic injured and now the demoralizing feeling that this team just made one of the most shocking trades in NBA history, I’m expecting Cleveland to win in dominating fashion in my Mavericks vs. Cavaliers predictions and NBA picks.
Mavericks vs Cavaliers prediction
My best bet
Cavaliers -13 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
While Doncic hasn’t suited up for the Dallas Mavericks since Christmas Day due to a calf injury, shipping him to the City of Angels will certainly dishearten the fanbase and could have an impact on an already mediocre Mavericks season.
Dallas is currently slotted to be a play-in tournament team, but now everything about this season and surviving until Doncic returns has been thrown aside. Can Jason Kidd keep the spirits of this team up after losing the face of the franchise and adding a currently injured Anthony Davis?
I just don’t see any way the Mavs will come to play against this Cleveland Cavaliers team. Dallas is 5-13 ATS since Dec. 28 and was beaten up in January. Last month, the Mavericks went 6-10 and were scoring just 112.4 ppg, far below their season average of 115.6.
So, to expect them to take it to this Cavs defense is a big ask. Kenny Atkinson’s team is eighth in defensive rating (112.2) and allowing the ninth-lowest field goal percentage in the NBA (46%); it’s also covered in three straight games, two of which it was a double-digit favorite.
In fact, the last time Cleveland played Dallas, the Cavaliers covered as a 9-point favorite and won 134-122. The Mavericks simply couldn’t keep up with the best offense in the NBA, and we should see much of the same today.
Cleveland is second in the league in scoring (122.2) and first in offensive rating (122.3) behind a lineup that’s second in the league in field goal percentage (49.8%), first in 3-point percentage (39.2%), and fourth in assists per game (29.1).
Atkinson’s squad can win in a myriad of ways with its shooting from Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland and its inside play from Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. That will pose a problem for this Mavericks team, which is 16th in the NBA in points allowed per game (112.7), 20th in 2-pointers allowed (28.3%), and 18th in 3-point percentage allowed (36%).
There are just so many factors working against Dallas in its first matchup post-Doncic trade that I can’t imagine Kidd’s lineup will bring the energy it needs to compete with one of the best teams in the NBA.
Mavericks vs Cavaliers same-game parlay
Cavaliers -12.5
Evan Mobley Over 16.5 points
Donovan Mitchell Over 3.5 threes
Putting together the best season of his career, Mobley should be able to have a strong outing against Dallas. The Mavericks are allowing the second-most points per game in the NBA to power forwards (24.57), and Mobley is putting up a career-high 18.2 ppg.
The last time Cleveland played Dallas, Mobley managed his second-most points of the season (34), and he’s gone Over 16.5 in 24 of 42 games. Having Mobley expose Dallas down low should help Mitchell thrive on the perimeter, too.
The All-Star is seventh in the NBA in threes per game (3.7) and has gone Over 3.5 threes in 25 of 46 games, including six of his last eight games.
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Mavericks vs Cavaliers odds
Mavericks vs Cavaliers live odds
Mavericks vs Cavaliers opening odds
- Spread: Dallas +11 | Cleveland -11
- Moneyline: Dallas +400 | Cleveland -550
- Over/Under: Over 238.5 | Under 238.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Mavericks vs Cavaliers spread and Over/Under analysis
- After opening as an 11-point favorite, the Cavaliers have seen the line shift further in their direction to -13 after the devastating Dallas trade of Doncic.
- Cleveland is the best team ATS in the NBA at 32-16, while the Mavericks are middle of the pack at 23-24-2.
- The Over/Under opened as high as 238.5 but has steadily dropped to between 236.5 and 237.
- The Cavaliers are the top Over betting team in the NBA at 32-16, with Dallas just over .500 at 25-24.
Mavericks vs Cavaliers trend
The Cavaliers have covered the spread in 34 of their last 50 games (+16.40 units / 30% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Cavaliers.
How to watch Mavericks vs Cavaliers
| Location | Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse, Cleveland, OH |
| Date | Sunday, 2-2-2025 |
| Tip-off | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | Mavs TV, FDSN Ohio |
Mavericks vs Cavaliers latest injuries
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