If you didn’t know Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic before last year’s NBA Bubble, you sure as hell did after he single-handedly took the Los Angeles Clippers to six games before bowing out in the opening round of the playoffs.
Los Angeles and Dallas meet again in the Western quarterfinals, with the No. 4 Clippers set as NBA betting favorites hosting the No. 5 Mavericks for Game 1 of this series Saturday. The Mavs went 2-1 SU and ATS versus L.A. this season, but were 2-4 ATS in their postseason series last summer.
Here are free NBA picks and predictions for Mavericks vs. Clippers on May 22.
Mavericks vs Clippers game info
• Location: STAPLES Center, Los Angeles, CA
• Date: Saturday, May 22, 2021
• Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Mavericks vs Clippers odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NBA Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonWilliam Hill US pegged Los Angeles a 5-point favorite at Tuesday afternoon's opening, and the number stuck there until game-day morning, when it moved to -5.5. As of 1:30 p.m. ET, the Clippers remain -5.5 while taking 63 percent of tickets and 82 percent of cash, although WillHill director of trading Nick Bogdanovich said straight-bet handle is light so far. "A lot of Clippers moneyline parlays, and we're just a little high on the point spread and on parlays with the point spread," Bogdanovich said, while pointing to an expected trend on Day 1 of the NBA playoffs. "I think we'll need the 'dog in every game today." The total initially rose from 220 to 221.5, but it's now down to 217.5. "It moved Under, but we're gonna need the Under. We're high on straight bets for the Over, and every parlay is on the Over," Bogdanovich said.
Check out the full line movement for this gameMavericks vs Clippers series odds
Mavericks: +325
Clippers: -425
Mavericks vs Clippers betting preview
Injuries
Mavericks: Maxi Kleber F (Questionable), J.J. Redick G (Questionable).
Clippers: Amir Coffey F (Questionable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Dallas is 6-0 Over/Under in its last six road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Clippers.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The Clippers have a key element this year that they didn’t against the Mavericks last summer: perspective.
Los Angeles rolled into the bubble among the betting favorites to win the NBA title and were -500 series chalk against Dallas (+370). The Clippers would split the first four games of the series before eventually wearing down Doncic, who averaged 31 points for the series and played three of those games without teammate Kristaps Porzingis.
The Clippers won’t be taking Dallas lightly in this matchup, not after last year’s series (which set the tone for a second-round loss to Denver) or after eating a 50-burger from the Mavericks back in December. Nor can the Clips ease up with Porzingis healthy and presenting matchup nightmares for their frontcourt (he averaged almost 24 points in the playoff games he did play versus L.A.).
Los Angeles’ finish to the season has come under skepticism, tanking its two final games against bottom-feeders Oklahoma City and Houston to drop into the No. 4 spot and avoid both Portland and the L.A. Lakers on its side of the Western Conference bracket.
In fact, it’s very difficult to get a grip on L.A.’s current form, considering the lineup looked different almost every night as key players like Kawhi Leonard, Patrick Beverley and Serge Ibaka worked themselves back from injuries in the final month of the season. Los Angeles went 5-6 SU in the final 11 games of the schedule and posted a 3-8 ATS mark in those contests.
We do know this team can defend, most notably one-on-one, with the likes of Leonard, Beverley and Paul George sharing the defensive assignment on Doncic. The Clippers will toss big bodies at Luka as well, milking all the hard fouls they can from Ibaka and Marcus Morris Sr. in an attempt to beat up the 6-foot-7 star guard.
Offensively, Los Angeles has plenty to prove in the postseason, specifically George. His “Playoff P” persona was one of the major causes for the Clippers’ scare versus Dallas. George, who has been the backbone of this offense in the second half of this season, averaged 18.5 points on less than 34 percent shooting in that opening round bubble set.
A little fear goes a long way and L.A. won’t risk dropping home court against this dangerous Dallas team in Game 1 Saturday.
PREDICTION: Los Angeles -5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The Clippers defensive game plan is pretty simple: pester Doncic every time he comes near the ball and see if the Mavs’ other guys can hurt you.
The Mavericks aren’t the record-setting offensive attack they were last season, but still wrapped 2020-21 ranked eighth in offensive rating (114.6) and upped that to 116.1 since April 1. They closed out the year on a five-game Over run, albeit against some crappy defenses, but have solid scoring depth and a number of guys who can erupt for big nights, like Tim Hardaway Jr.
It’s been a while since we witnessed the full power of the Clippers’ offensive Death Star, but with a good stint of rest for those working their way back from injuries, (said in your best Emperor from Star Wars voice) this battle station will be fully armed and operational for the playoff opener.
Leonard, who’s been sleep-walking through most of 2021, showed he’s able to turn it on for big games: 29 points vs. Knicks, 27 points vs. Suns, and 29 points vs. Blazers. Dallas is hoping forward Maxi Kleber is healthy enough to at least offer a sensible matchup option for one of the greatest postseason performers in league history.
The Game 1 total is currently sub-220 which is too low, considering the scorers on both sides. These teams went 4-2 Over/Under in last year’s series with George stinking up the joint and the Mavericks shorthanded. All three of their meetings played Under in the regular season, but only one of those games had both teams at full strength.
PREDICTION: Over 219 (-110)
Player prop pick
Both George and Leonard have Over/Under point totals of 25.5 heading into Game 1.
The last time the Clippers’ superstars both scored 25 points or more in a game was Los Angeles’ 113-103 home victory over Phoenix on April 8, in which George led the way with 33 points and Leonard finished with 27 in the statement win.
As much as redemption is making “Playoff P” an enticing Over bet, we like Leonard more when it comes to this scoring prop. Kawhi was a monster versus Dallas in last year’s quarterfinals, averaging 32.8 points over those six games.
He had just 20 and 22 points in a pair of games versus the Mavs back in March but finds another gear in postseason play, averaging 28.2, 30.5 and 27.7 points per game in his last postseasons (L.A., Toronto, and San Antonio). Dallas doesn’t have a one-on-one answer for Leonard, who will set the tone for the series with a big day on Saturday.
PREDICTION: Kawhi Leonard points Over 25.5 (-106)
Mavericks vs Clippers betting card
- Los Angeles -5 (-110)
- Over 219 (-110)
- Kawhi Leonard points Over 25.5 (-106)
Picks made on 5/20/2021 at 3:05 p.m. ET
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