Two teams in need of a win collide tonight as the Atlanta Hawks host the Dallas Mavericks.
Dallas has dropped three in a row, including the last two at home to a couple of upper crusts in Boston and Phoenix. It could also be down star guard Kyrie Irving, who missed the Suns game with a sprained thumb.
The Mavs are still 1.5-point road favorites in the NBA odds, as they visit a Hawks side that has also dropped three straight in blowout fashion.
They may also be down their own point man, as Trae Young is working through concussion protocol, and could miss his third straight.
Who breaks through? Read below for my free Mavericks vs. Hawks free NBA picks for Friday, January 26.
Mavericks vs Hawks odds
Mavericks vs Hawks predictions
The Mavericks’ struggles have come on both sides of the court. A team that ranks in the Top 10 in scoring at 118.1 points per game, Dallas has averaged just 109.7 points in three straight losses.
It started with a 127-110 loss to the Lakers in L.A., but then they returned home to a 119-110 loss to the Celtics, before getting drilled 132-109 by the Suns.
Defense hasn’t been their strong suit much of the year, as they’re a Bottom-10 team surrendering 117.8 points per game. Over this skid? That’s an unhealthy 126 points per game.
Not even Luka Doncic brilliance could lift them of late: Doncic has led the team in scoring, rebounds, and assists the last three games, averaging 33.3 points, 13 boards and 10.7 dimes, with triple-doubles in two of those games.
He shouldn’t face much resistance at State Farm Arena, as the Hawks are even worse in scoring defense than the Mavericks, allowing 122.7 points per game, a mark only topped by the hapless Wizards and the offense-only Pacers.
The Hawks are coming off a 134-112 drubbing in Golden State, a game after taking a 122-107 beating in NorCal from the Sacramento Kings. Their last home game was the start of their three-game skid, as they were crushed 116-95 by the Cavaliers.
Trae Young has missed the last two as he deals with a concussion, and a team that ranks sixth in scoring at 119.6 points per game has suddenly hit the bricks, averaging less than 105 points per game during this slide.
This is the first of two meetings between these teams this season, with Atlanta winning three of the last four in this head-to-head.
While Dallas has struggled, it’s still a sturdy 24-20 for eighth in the West, and two games from a Top-6 spot and guaranteed playoff berth. They also mash sub-.500 clubs: At 16-5, the Mavs are tied with OKC for the second-most wins in that category.
Atlanta is also a grim 8-19 against teams with winning records. No Young won’t help, as Dallas should find its way back into the win column.
My best bet: Mavericks moneyline (-120 +125 at DraftKings) 50% boost available
Mavericks vs Hawks same-game parlay
Mavericks moneyline
Luka Doncic Under 35.5 points
Dereck Lively II Over 8.5 points
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The No. 2 scorer in the NBA at 33.6 points per game, Doncic has gone for at least 30 points in 21 of Dallas’ last 23 games.
But when that number creeps to 36 or more (his scoring total for Friday was set at 35.5), that number dips to 10 times over that stretch.
In eight career games vs the Hawks, Doncic has touched the 30-point plateau just once, averaging 23.5 points, with 8.6 rebounds, and 8.1 assists.
One of the reasons Doncic’s scoring numbers could take a dip is that he’ll be busy table-setting against one of the worst defenses in the league.
The Hawks are tied for the second-most assists against per game at 28.8, and rank third in points in the paint allowed at 55.8.
That combination seems to position rookie Dereck Lively II as an important and capable beneficiary.
Doncic and Kyrie Irving (if playing) should be able to puncture that defense with dribble drives in an iso or pick-and-roll scenario. And if Atlanta isn't crisp with their reads and reaction, Lively could be standing alone, alot.
Whether he’s rolling to the rim to finish an alley-oop, crashing the offensive glass for putbacks, or the free man under the hoop when rotations break down, Lively II should have ample opportunities to get to nine points.
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Mavericks vs Hawks spread and Over/Under analysis
The spread has only gone as high as 2 points and as low as 1, with most books featuring Dallas as 1.5-point favorites.
Atlanta is the worst cover team in the NBA, and it’s not even close: it’s 11-33-0 ATS. Every other team in the league has at least 16 cover wins.
Dallas is a sturdy 23-21-0 ATS, including 12-8-0 on the road, a Top-5 success rate in the NBA.
A couple of Top-10 scoring clubs have pushed the total to a high of 244 points, a big jump from the opening line of 239.5.
Like their ATS record, Dallas’ Over mark is an identical 23-21-0. Atlanta has seen the Over go 24-20-0 on the season.
The Over has hit in the last two meetings between these teams.
Mavericks vs Hawks betting trend to know
Seven of the Hawks' last eight games have gone Under the total. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Hawks.
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Mavericks vs Hawks game info
| Location: | Arena, City, State/Province |
| Date: | Friday, January 26, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBA TV |
Mavericks vs Hawks latest injuries
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