Mavericks vs Heat Picks and Predictions: Doncic Dunks on Doubters

With the men's NCAA Final Four games tonight, there are only two games on the Saturday, April 1 NBA slate. Luckily, one of them features a pair of star-laden teams desperate for a late-season win. 

The Miami Heat are in danger of falling into the play-in without a late-season rally, while the Dallas Mavericks are facing the very real possibility that they might now miss the postseason entirely.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Mavericks vs. Heat are backing Luka Doncic to have yet another strong floor game.

Mavericks vs Heat best odds

Mavericks vs Heat picks and predictions

It would be hard to call this Dallas Mavericks season anything other than a complete catastrophe. They let Jalen Brunson walk for nothing, signed JaVale McGee to a three-year deal and immediately cast him out of the rotation, and the early returns on the Kyrie Irving gamble are (to put it mildly) not positive. Luka Doncic also came into the season as the MVP favorite, for the third year in a row and he’s not going to be a serious candidate at season's end.

Doncic has also struggled through what he has called the most frustrating part of his career lately. His defensive effort has hit an all-time low in recent weeks as well, and he’s certainly not blameless for the team’s recent nosedive. 

And yet, by any reasonable standard, Doncic remains one of the most plug-and-play productive forces in the NBA. His bad games would be coveted career nights by most of the Association's players, even some of its very best. He’s made the spectacular look mundane, and as a result, raised expectations to a degree that might look unfair to an objective observer.

The most impressive thing about Doncic is that, on top of being an elite scorer, he impacts the game in so many other ways. He’s one of the best and most effective passers, as well as a prodigious rebounder. Luka’s 41.9% assist percentage is 98th percentile among point guards and his 21.6% defensive rebounding rate is literally the 100th percentile per Cleaning the Glass.

His flaws have become magnified, which has created some unusual opportunities for bettors. Despite his gargantuan production on a nightly basis, his combined rebound and assist total for Saturday’s game is (by his standard) a relatively modest 16.5. 

He’s eclipsed that number by a lot in four of his last five outings, and the one time he didn’t was because he hardly played in the blowout against the Indiana Pacers. Miami is more than good enough to make this a game, so that should be an issue again.

Bam Adebayo is also questionable for Saturday’s game. Obviously, if he’s not manning the middle for the Heat that leaves a lot on the plate of Jimmy Butler and Miami’s smaller, less physical guards. Butler has shown signs of wearing down recently, and he’s been largely ineffective as a rebounder. I’m banking on Doncic to get the better of him tonight.

My best bet: Luka Doncic Over 16.5 rebounds and assists (-104)

Mavericks vs Heat spread analysis

While Dallas has grabbed all the headlines, Miami suddenly finds itself on quite a skid too. It’s just 2-4 in its last six games, with critical losses that have ruined any chance the Heat briefly had of snatching the five seed away from the New York Knicks. 

They’ve posted one of the league’s worst point differentials (-9.2) in this stretch and trail only to the thoroughly tanking Portland Trail Blazers for the worst spread differential in the NBA. They’re underperforming their lines by a galling 9.3 points per game over the last two weeks per Cleaning the Glass.

That they’re still -1 favorites speaks to just how little faith the Mavericks have earned through their play of late. Dallas is just 3-8 against the spread in its last 11 overall. While the Mavericks have clicked in spurts, consistent focus and effort have been a real struggle for Dallas. That’s seen them go just 2-10-2 ATS in their last 14 games playing on two days' rest.

That’s just about as damning a result as it gets in a rest-advantage situation. I say “just about” because somehow Miami’s record in the same situation is even worse. The Heat are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games playing on two days of rest. 

While I’m loath to back this version of Dallas, Miami has flown under the radar with how bad they’ve been for a while now. They’re 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games, and a miserable 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Miami not being able to cover against the worst teams in the NBA is damning, so I’d lean towards the Mavericks in this one.

Mavericks vs Heat Over/Under analysis

These teams have been off since losses on Wednesday, so we should theoretically expect the best version of both teams to show up for Saturday’s game. For the Heat, that means a renewed defensive intensity. While the Over is 5-0 in the Heat’s last five games overall, the Under is 4-1 when they play on two days' rest. 

The Under is also 7-2 in Miami’s last nine games against losing teams. Miami beats the bad teams with defense, but Dallas isn’t like most sub-.500 teams. It has two of the best isolation scorers in the NBA in their backcourt, who should not be deterred by the Heat’s aggressive switching style.

But the Mavericks' star personnel also raise expectations that they’re some incredible scoring team, which has seen them assigned some astronomical totals. Yet for all their talent, they’re merely average on offense since the Irving trade. That’s seen a string of Unders cash as a result. The Under is 4-0 in their last four overall, 5-0 in their last five road games, and 7-0 on the road against teams with a winning record at home. 

Miami’s defense has been so porous recently however that at 224.5 I’d still consider the Over. If Adebayo isn’t available, the Heat are going to have a hard time preventing the Mavericks from getting good shots in the paint.

Mavericks vs Heat betting trend to know

Under is 7-2 in Heat’s last nine vs. a team with a losing straight-up record. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Heat.

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