Mavericks vs Nuggets Picks and Predictions: Jokic Carves Up New-Look Mavs

Despite the fact the Dallas Mavericks have lost the first two games of the Luka Doncic-Kyrie Irving experiment, one thing is for certain. This duo won’t have many issues getting buckets. 

Unfortunately, as predicted, surrendering buckets might come just as easily to their opponents. And if there is a team that knows something about getting buckets, it's reigning two-time MVP Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets.

Do the Mavs and their dynamic duo have a hope of slowing down Jokic his home court? Or will The Joker prove too much? I break down this Western Conference matchup and more in my NBA picks and predictions for Mavericks vs. Nuggets below.

Mavericks vs Nuggets best odds

Mavericks vs Nuggets picks and predictions

The first two games where Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving have shared the court have been interesting. For one, both ended in losses. In one, they allowed 114 points in regulation against the Kings. In the other, the Timberwolves dropped 124 on them back on Monday.

Now, the Dallas Mavericks were not a strong defensive team before acquiring Irving, but shipping out Spencer Dinwiddie and Dorian Finney-Smith certainly won’t help the situation. Dallas ranks 22nd overall when it comes to defensive rating, but if the first two games are a sign of things to come, that number could get worse.

The Mavs allowed the Kings to shoot 51% from the floor and the Timberwolves 58% and have been outscored by 38 points in the paint in those games. In addition to that, Mavs were clearly overmatched on the boards in both games, losing the rebounding battle by six and seven boards respectively.

Enter reigning two-time MVP Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets. 

Behind their perennial MVP candidate, the Nuggets lead the NBA in offensive rating, effective field goal percentage, and 3-point shooting percentage. Jokic himself has outstanding numbers, which is of course why he’s the favorite to win his third consecutive MVP award.

The Joker is averaging 24.9 points on a crazy 63.2% shooting from the floor, with 11.4 rebounds and 10.1 assists. And he’s even seen an uptick in his scoring lately, averaging 28.7 points over his last three games, never going for less than 27.

Jokic is a tough matchup for anyone obviously, but he is a true matchup nightmare for an undersized Mavs team. Dallas just let Domantas Sabonis go for 22 points and 14 rebounds, and then Rudy Gobert put up 21 and 14. 

Jokic has a points + rebounds total set at 38.5. He’s gone Over this number four times in his last seven games. He should do so once again tonight.

My best bet: Nikola Jokic Over 38.5 points + rebounds (-115)

Mavericks vs Nuggets spread analysis

The spread for this Western Conference matchup opened with the Nuggets as 5.5-point home chalk. And even though the Mavericks are 0-2 against the spread in the first two Luka-Kyrie games, those both were as favorites and it seems bettors are willing to give them a shot as underdogs as the line has moved to Denver -4.5 as of Wednesday afternoon.

The Mavs' offense should keep them within striking distance in most games. Doncic and Irving have combined for 62 points per game so far but it will be interesting to see if even they can keep up with the Nuggets in Denver, where the Nuggets are even more dominant.

They rank second in the NBA in scoring at home, putting up 121.4 points per contest, and lead the NBA in average scoring margin at a ridiculous +12. So, it’s no surprise the Nuggets are an impressive 20-10 ATS at home this season.

I get the temptation with the Mavericks are dogs here, but the Nuggets have too many edges, particularly on the boards, defensively, and on the bench. I’d wait to see if this line goes any farther toward the Mavs and hop on the Nuggets at the lower number.

Mavericks vs Nuggets Over/Under analysis

This total hit the board at 232 and has already been bumped up to 234. Not shockingly, though, because this might be a matchup of the two best offenses in the West moving forward.

We’ve touched on the Nuggets' dominance on offense, and the Mavs' struggles to defend, well, anybody at the moment. Meanwhile, Luka and Kyrie are good enough to score with the best of them.

And the Nuggets' defense is good, but not great, ranking 13th in defensive rating, 13th in scoring defense, allowing an average of 112.8 points per game, and 22nd in opponent field goal percentage.

Even at the elevated number, I would say look at the Over or stay away.

Mavericks vs Nuggets betting trend to know

The Over is 5-1 in the Mavericks' last six games overall and 4-0 in the Nuggets' last four games at home. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Nuggets.

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