The Phoenix Suns are the top seed in the West but didn’t look like it in the first round of the NBA Playoffs, escaping a surprisingly close six-game series to advance to this Round 2 run-in with the Dallas Mavericks.
The Suns struggled with New Orleans in the conference quarterfinals, due in part to Devin Booker’s hamstring injury, but are back to full strength and pegged as 5.5-point NBA betting home favorites for Game 1 tonight. Dallas is off its own six-game series victory, knocking off Utah in the opening round.
Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for Mavericks vs. Suns on Monday, May 2.
Mavericks vs Suns odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Phoenix opened as a 6-point home favorite at most books and has since slimmed to -5.5 at the time of writing. The total for Game 1 hit the board at 212.5 and has spring-boarded as high as 215.5 at some shops.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Mavericks vs Suns predictions
Predictions made on 5/2/2022 at 10:40 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Mavericks vs Suns game info
• Location: Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ
• Date: Monday, May 2, 2022
• Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT
Mavericks vs Suns series odds
Mavericks: +245
Suns: -300
Mavericks vs Suns betting preview
Key injuries
Mavericks: Tim Hardaway Jr. G (Out)
Suns: None
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Phoenix is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 games against Dallas. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Suns.
Mavericks vs Suns picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
If there’s a mountain to climb for the Mavericks, it’s the Suns. Dallas is 3-11 SU and 4-10 ATS versus Phoenix going back to 2018-19, including a 0-3 SU and 2-1 ATS mark this season. However, those recent matchups featured a Mavs team that looks a little different than the one heading to the Footprint Center tonight.
Player movement and injuries prevent any real meaty comparisons between the regular season results and what could shake out in Game 1. The one big question facing Dallas is how it will defend Phoenix’s versatile and talent-rich offense.
In Round 1, the Mavericks got their heels above the 3-point arc and padded the paint versus Utah, forcing the Jazz to settle for mid-range looks, which didn’t go over well with the Jazz, who shot a dismal 44% from the floor.
The Suns present a “pick your poison” challenge, as they thrive in mid-range and have a skilled big man in Deandre Ayton to eat up a lighter Dallas frontcourt. The Mavericks’ best plan of attack might be to keep everyone inside the 3-point arc and force the Suns to shoot from deep, considering Phoenix finished with a 31.9% success rate from long range versus New Orleans.
The issue there is that the Suns are normally a much better team than that from distance — and Devin Booker’s improving health can only boost Phoenix’s punch from 3-point land.
In the final two games with the Pelicans, the Suns knocked down better than 38% of their triples. They don’t hit 3-pointers in bulk like Dallas... but they have that potential, especially if given extra space outside. Phoenix shot 37.3% from beyond the arc (fourth in the NBA) and made 12 triples per game at home during the regular season and knocked down an average of 12.5 makes from distance over its three games versus Dallas.
I don’t see the Suns running away with this one, as both teams have quality defenses and fantastic individual matchups, but we’ll give the home side the nod under three possessions, as it feels like Dallas has more to figure out in this first game than Phoenix.
Prediction: Phoenix -5.5 (-110 at PointsBet)
Over/Under analysis
This series will showcase two of the better defenses in the playoffs, as well as some great solo stoppers.
Dallas’ plodding offensive pace is always working with the defense in mind, limiting opponent possessions on the other end. The Mavericks' series with Utah posted a Round 1-low pace rating of just 91.25. Plus, when the Suns do get the ball, the Mavs have quality versatile defenders in Dorian Finney-Smith and Reggie Bullock to throw at Booker.
Phoenix counters with guys like Mikal Bridges, Jae Crowder, and Cam Johnson — and has Ayton as a legit rim protector changing shots and using his quick feet on help-side defense. Veteran point guard Chris Paul is ageless on that end of the floor as well, likely drawing Mavs’ motor Jalen Brunson most times.
As for limiting Luka Doncic, the Suns are expected to throw constant double teams at Dallas’ superstar guard early on, trying to get the ball out of his hands and testing the mettle of the rest of the Mavericks’ support staff. Phoenix has a lot of capable bodies to keep the pressure on Doncic, so aggressive switching and funneling Luka into Ayton’s length is part of that game plan.
The Suns defense did generate a lot of scoring chances in Round 1, pressuring the Pelicans into 14.5 turnovers per contest — 32 total in the final two games — and quickly translating those errors into an average of almost 22 points off turnovers for the series. Dallas plays a very controlled tempo, averaging fewer than nine turnovers per game versus the Jazz and finishing with the third-fewest turnovers in the regular season. So those easy buckets aren't there for Phoenix this time around.
This total has ticked up as many as three extra points since opening, but pace of play, great one-on-one defending, and a feeling-out period in the first half will keep the final score below the total.
Prediction: Under 215.5 (-118 at 888Sport)
Best bet
The full-game moneyline for the Suns in Game 1 is sitting as low as -210 at FanDuel, which isn’t a bad price considering Phoenix’s history of dominance over the Mavericks and Booker will be healthier than he was versus NOLA after a full three-day break between rounds.
However, not all bettors like laying lumber of -200 or more which is why the Suns’ double result — first half/full game — may be a little more enticing at a shorter cost of -115.
Phoenix checked the Pelicans to just 48.5 first-half points over its six-game series, dropping that to just over 45 points inside the Footprint Center. The Suns defense won’t need to feel out the first half as much as Dallas, as its game plan is more transferable from last round to the next, while the Mavs have a lot more moving pieces to tinker with.
Given that Ayton is a legit interior threat Dallas has to deal with, the Mavericks may have to abandon their small-ball sets to keep the Suns center in check.
That move on defense mucks up the works on offense, with Dallas forced to get away from what worked against Utah.
Pick: Phoenix Double Result (-115 at BetMGM)
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