Mavericks vs Suns Game 7 Picks and Predictions: Dallas' Momentum Carries Into Game 7

After a rollercoaster of a series through six games, the Phoenix Suns and the Dallas Mavericks will play a win-or-go-home Game 7 on Sunday, May 14th.

Read on for our free NBA betting picks and predictions for the final matchup of Mavericks vs. Suns, and why we might be in for the first close game of the series.

Mavericks vs Suns Game 7 odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

With the home team winning every game in the series, it’s not surprising that Phoenix opened strong at -6, with the line settling at some books at -6.5. The Total has seen substantial movement, opening at 210 and declining to as low as 205 at some books.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Mavericks vs Suns Game 7 predictions

• Prediction: Mavericks +6.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 206.5 (-111)
• Best bet: Mavericks 1H ML (+150)

Predictions made on 5/14/2022 at 9:28 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Mavericks vs Suns Game 7 info

• Location: Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ
• Date: Saturday, May 15, 2022
• Tip-off: 12:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TBD

Mavericks vs Suns series odds

Mavericks: +235
Suns: -300

Mavericks vs Suns Game 7 betting preview

Key injuries

Mavericks: No injuries to report.
Suns: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 4-0 in the last four games of the series. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Suns.

Mavericks vs Suns Game 7 picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

Familiarity breeds contempt, and there’s nothing quite as intimate as an NBA Game 7. Dallas probably didn’t expect to be here, and Phoenix certainly hoped not to be, but it all comes down to this. It’s unusual to get all the way to Game 7 without a single road victory, and it makes it difficult to know how much of what the Mavericks have done to Phoenix in three out of the last four games matters now. 

Just looking at the defensive numbers for Dallas, it’s stunning what they’ve done to the Suns' offense. After committing 17 or more turnovers in the regular season just 10 times, Phoenix had a season-high 22 turnovers in Game 6, after also tallying 17 each in Games 3 and 4.

Jason Kidd deserves credit for swapping out Josh Green in favor of Frank Ntilikina. Ntilikina has done a tremendous job pressuring both Chris Paul and Devin Booker and is an elite help defender as well, but it truly has been a collective effort and mindset from the Mavericks that have stiffened their defense.

Chris Paul blowing Doncic off the court in Game 2 by going after him in isolation over and over is now a distant memory. Doncic is both giving better effort (including four steals in Game 6), and the Mavericks are also trapping and rotating rather than letting Booker or Paul go after him one-on-one.

Chris Paul, in turn, has looked merely mortal. He had 13 points and five turnovers in Game 6, and that’s one of his better performances since Game 2. The constant pressure by Dallas is clearly wearing on him out.

The Suns don’t have many rotation changes they could make at this point either. Monty Williams already cut into his rotation, with both JaVale McGee and Cam Payne getting zero minutes during the competitive portion of Game 6, but Landry Shamet isn’t giving them much either, getting up only a single 3-point attempt in his 17 minutes, part of the anemic 18 total 3-point attempts for Phoenix.

The Suns' offense just struggled to create good shots, coughed the ball up constantly, and were routinely playing late into the clock. In turn, Dallas went 16-39 from three, which is now four of six games they’ve shot 41% or higher from beyond the arc. 

Phoenix will play better in front of their fans, there’s no doubt of that, but the ways they’re losing to this Mavericks team could absolutely carry over into Game 7. Dallas' shooting is proven, Luka Doncic is the most reliable offensive threat in the series, and the Mavericks' defense has suffocated the Suns' offense at times.

It also bears mentioning here, that while it’s not yet clear who will be officiating Game 7, there is a distinct possibility that Scott Foster gets the call. Chris Paul is a shocking 0-for-14 in playoff games refereed by Foster. I’m not conspiracy-minded, but I do think that it has become something of a self-fulfilling prophecy for Paul, where he believes that Foster’s presence is hurting him. Even just that self-doubt can be enough to swing a game like this.

It’s a tough call because home court has meant so much in this series, but what Dallas has been doing is consistent and repeatable and has been working since Game 3. Phoenix will play better, but a lot of what the Mavericks have been doing should translate to Game 7.

Prediction: Mavericks +6.5 (-110 at bet365)

Over/Under analysis

Even more so than for considering the spread, accounting for the unusual qualities of a Game 7 is critical when considering the total. While there isn’t one publicly available database, a cross-section of partial ones available online reveals a strong trend towards the Under in NBA Game 7s, with the Under cashing a notch below 58% of the time. It’s due to a variety of factors, but the later a series goes, it trends toward the Under. 

Both coaching staffs have emptied their clips, every star player's tendencies are known, and weak links from both teams have seen their roles minimized or benched completely. Both teams are banged up and fatigued, and the defenses are well-rehearsed on opposing pet plays. It just becomes difficult to score. That’s been reflected in this series as well, with the Under going 4-0 in the last four games.

Dallas has also forced Phoenix to play at their tempo. The Mavericks played at the slowest pace in the NBA during the regular season and in Game 6, the pace was 92.1, which would rank well below even the Mavericks' average regular season pace.

The total for Game 7 has been rapidly falling at sportsbooks since it opened, but at this number, I still like the Under.

Prediction: Under 206.5 (-111 at Betway)

Best bet

There are a lot of cliches about Game 7s, some of which, like them trending toward lower-scoring affairs have truth to them.

One thing I like to rely on in these situations are players, and in particular, superstars, who have been there and performed before. In that regard, Luka is the only sure bet not to be rattled early in this contest.

Doncic is a relatively inexperienced NBA player still, but he has been playing (and winning) high-leverage playoff games since he was 14 years old. While players on Phoenix and Dallas might find the lights a bit bright on Sunday, Doncic should steady the Mavericks and get them off to a good start. 

Game 6 also showed some encouraging first-half trends for the Mavericks, as they made a concerted effort to push the ball, something that Luka has rarely done in the NBA. They led the Suns 16-2 in fast-break points at the half. A lot of those came off their steals, but a significant portion was also Luka committing to pushing the ball on Phoenix's missed shots.

But as we saw against the Clippers in both Game 7s he played against them, Doncic did eventually wear down in the fourth quarter. Not knowing if the Mavericks will have a reliable co-star on Sunday to lighten his load, I’m not inclined to go all the way on the Mavericks moneyline, but I do like their chances to spring out to a first-half lead quite a bit. 

Pick: Mavericks first-half moneyline (+150 at Betway)

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