Nets vs Celtics Game 1 Picks and Predictions: Will KD, Kyrie's Talent Rise Above in G1?

We’ve got your NBA betting preview as the defensive-minded Boston Celtics try to contain Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and the offensively-gifted Brooklyn Nets in Game 1 on Sunday, April 17th.

We let you know where there’s value to be found with our latest NBA picks and predictions for Nets vs. Celtics in what promises to be a titanic clash between two superstar-laden squads.

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Nets vs Celtics odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The spread opened with Boston getting as much as a 3.5-point advantage at some books, and has steadily begun to move further in Boston’s favor, settling at -4.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Nets vs Celtics predictions

• Prediction: Nets +4.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 224 (-110)
• Best bet: Brown Over 26.5 pts (-118)

Predictions made on 4/16/2022 at 2:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Nets vs Celtics game info

• Location: TD Garden, Boston, MA
• Date: Sunday, April 17, 2022
• Tip-off: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC

Nets vs Celtics series odds

Nets: +110
Celtics: -130

Nets vs Celtics betting preview

Key injuries

Nets: Ben Simmons G (Out).
Celtics: Robert Williams III C (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 4-0 in Brooklyn's last four games vs. teams with a winning straight-up record. Find more NBA betting trends for Nets vs. Celtics.

Nets vs Celtics picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

This is a star-powered showdown rarely seen in a first-round series. Boston charges into the postseason as the No. 1 defense in the NBA, while posting the league's second-best point differential of +7.4.

And yet, that +7.4 mark significantly undersells the prowess of this current group, as the Celtics were two games below .500 40 games into the season. Since that point, they’ve been the best team in the NBA, full stop, and have killed once and for all the foolish calls to break up the Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown pairing. In a regular two-seven matchup, the Celtics would be looking at a sweep.

However, the Brooklyn Nets are not a typical No. 7 seed. Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving are two of the most skilled scorers on the entire planet, and both go to a gear in the playoffs that few who have ever walked the earth can match. And though Ben Simmons won’t be suiting up for Game 1, the additions of Seth Curry and Andre Drummond give the Nets some sorely-needed depth.

This is a game that will be decided on Boston’s end of the court. If the Celtics can slow down Durant and Irving, they’ll win. And unlike most teams, the Celtics have a variety of good options to guard both KD and Kyrie.

Big, physical wing defenders who can contribute on offense are the holy grail in the modern NBA, and the Celtics have managed to hoard more than their fair share. 

But losing Robert Williams III is a real blow, as shifting his role to a kind of defensive-free safety is what turned the Celtics' season around. Boston plays a switch-heavy scheme that forces opposing teams to score in isolation, but the Nets are better equipped to do so than just about any team in the NBA.

By location effective field goal percentage, the Nets would be expected to have the third-worst offense in the NBA per Cleaning the Glass. In reality, they were the eighth-best, and that’s with a part-time Kyrie and a lot of missed games for Durant. Boston forces a tough diet of looks, but Brooklyn is the ultimate tough shot-making team.

While Tatum will likely be the primary on KD, Durant will see a variety of defenders. The same goes for Irving who will no doubt start against Defensive Player of the Year candidate Marcus Smart, then face the similarly stout Derrick White.

Robert Williams III going out downgrades the Celtics' defense from an intractable problem, to a merely very difficult one. The step down from Williams to Daniel Theis is significant both because Theis can be attacked in isolation, but also because Horford as the backline defender is much less intimidating than Williams.

In turn, that opens up back cuts and drives to the basket that have been hard to come by in prior matchups between these two teams. Andre Drummond will also feast on the boards in Williams’ absence, and if Brooklyn wins the possession game, they’ll be tough to beat.

The Celtics were a juggernaut with Williams, but without him, they are merely a goliath, and this Nets team is full of giant killers. While they may not win the series, I like them to cover in Game 1.

Prediction: Nets +4.5 (-110 at 888sport)

Over/Under analysis

The Celtics' total has hit the Over in 10 of their last 12 games, but conversely, the Nets have gone Under in 9 of their last 12. But projecting this Nets team with regular-season statistics is foolhardy, as not since the latter-day LeBron James-led Cleveland Cavaliers has a team held less regard for the regular season. 

The trend that matters here then is that the Nets get up for, and score big, in games against quality opponents. The total has gone Over in each of the last four games that the Nets have played against a team with a winning straight-up record. 

That the Nets will struggle to contain the Celtics is a foregone conclusion, as they are simply too small on the perimeter. Kyrie Irving, Seth Curry, and Bruce Brown often start, with Goran Dragic and Patty Mills coming in off the bench.

That is five core rotation players that are 6-foot-4 or under.  6-foot-7 rookie Kessler Edwards might get a shot, but it appeared the lights were too bright for him during his first taste of postseason play, going 0-4 from the field in the play-in.

Tatum, Brown, Smart, and White are bigger, stronger, and will physically dominate the Nets guard rotation. And at least in this first contest, Brooklyn will keep pace on the offensive end.

As we’ve seen in series past already, Steve Nash is not shy of playing his stars heavy minutes in order to win. These early games when Kyrie and KD are both on fresh legs are Brooklyn’s best shot to pull the upset, and with those two playing 42+ minutes, the Nets' scoring will soar.

Prediction: Over 224 (-110 at SportsInteraction)

Best bet

Jaylen Brown might have the most favorable matchup in the entire first round of the NBA playoffs. Not only will Jayson Tatum be drawing the eyes of the defense, as usual, but Steve Nash’s options for matching up with Brown also are not inspiring.

Brown shoots fewer threes than most wings and prefers to work out of the short mid-range or get all the way to the rim. And he’s an otherworldly finisher, scoring 70% of his looks at the basket. Stopping him takes a combination of physicality and size that Brooklyn simply does not have. Should the Nets go with their traditional closing lineup, Brown will be defended by Seth Curry.

Curry is still nursing a troubling ankle injury and was a zero in the Nets’ play-in game against the Cavaliers. But even healthy, he would struggle to handle Brown. Remember, it was just last playoffs that Kevin Huerter blew a healthy Seth Curry off the court.

Brown is simply too physical for anyone the Nets can throw at him and should have a great chance to hit the Over.

Pick: Jaylen Brown Over 26.5 points (-118)

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