Can we pause the NBA Playoffs for a moment and just appreciate omega-level mutant Nikola Jokic?
The Denver Nuggets superstar is easily a Top 10 NBA player of all-time and his most recent stat line could have him knocking on the door of the Top 5. Seriously, think about it.
Jokic helped Denver pull off a massive upset against the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 1 of their conference semifinal set, recording 42 points, 22 rebounds and six assists.
That 121-119 victory marked just the 20th time a double-digit playoff dog won outright since 2004 and sets up an interesting angle for Game 2 tonight.
I have the pleasure of digging into Jokic’s potential box score for Wednesday's clash in OKC, giving my best NBA picks and Nuggets vs. Thunder predictions for May 7.
Nikola Jokic player prop picks
- Best bet
Nikola Jokic triple-double Yes
(+150) - SGP pick
Nikola Jokic 25+ points
Nikola Jokic 13+ rebounds
Nikola Jokic 10+ assists
(+450)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Nikola Jokic best bet
Nikola Jokic triple-double Yes (+150 at bet365)
Looking at the Game 2 forecasts for Nikola Jokic, the scoring and rebounding demands for this triple double prop shouldn’t be an issue. It’s the assist column we’ll be sweating.
Jokic recorded only six assists in Game 1, which was his lowest passing output of the playoffs and ties as his fewest assists in a game going back to late March.
His advanced stats for the series opener showed 12 potential assists from the savvy center, but with teammates Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. shooting a collective 7 for 24 from the field, many of those set-ups were wasted.
Jokic averaged just over 10 dimes in the seven-game set with the L.A. Clippers, with his potential assists metric soaring to 18.1 per contest in that series. In his four meetings with OKC in the regular season, Jokic posted eight, nine, 13 and 16 assists with an average of 21.3 potential assists per outing.
The pace of this series is ripe for plenty of possessions (Game 1 pace rating of 105.0) and the Thunder have to do a better job getting the ball out of Jokic’s hands, so expect the Oklahoma City Thunder to swarm Joker with doubles and mix twin 7-footers Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein in coverage.
Player projections for Jokic’s assists range between 8.4 and 9.5 with my number at 9.1 dimes from the Denver Nuggets big man. His assist Over/Under is at 8.5 with the Over juiced to -135 and some books have jumped that total to 9.5 O/U. Of course, the ceiling on assists is "Rocky Mountain" high with Jokic dishing out 21 dimes in Game 4 versus Los Angeles.
Outside of assists, his scoring models all come in north of 25 points and his rebounding forecasts sit between 12.1 and 16.1 boards in Game 2, after bringing down an insane 22 rebounds on 31.0 rebounding chances on Monday.
If you solely focus on Jokic’s assists and played his milestone market of 10+ dimes, you’re looking at a +125 payout. But we're basically asking for the same result – with a little extra risk around rebounds (10+ rebounds is -600 – an 86% probability) – but getting +150 in return.
Nikola Jokic same-game parlay
Nikola Jokic 25+ points
Nikola Jokic 13+ rebounds
Nikola Jokic 10+ assists
If you want a triple double prop on steroids (something Jokic obviously has never used), you can take his points prop at 25+ with every models showing at least 25 points from him tonight and his scoring O/U flirting with 29 points.
Again, you can pump his rebounding bar up to 13 boards for a bigger return. He did clean the glass for 22 and game models balance out to around 14 rebounds.
Assists will be the key to any triple double action or milestone market. Models say nine dimes but we all know that ceiling is much higher. I expect better shooting from Murray and Porter, who will cash in those set-ups after going ice cold in Game 1.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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