After taking control of this series with a commanding win in Game 3 on Thursday, the Los Angeles Clippers will look to zoom ahead of the Denver Nuggets in a home game on Saturday and move closer to the second round.
We’ll play a few Nuggets vs. Clippers props for Game 4 on Saturday, focusing on the three-point line along with one under-appreciated rotation player.
Let’s get into my NBA picks for April 26.
Best Nuggets vs Clippers props
Leonard Over 2.5 made threes (+145)- Dunn Over 3.5 rebounds (-130)
Gordon Over 1.5 made threes (+165)
Nuggets vs Clippers player props for April 26
Kawhi Leonard Over 2.5 made threes (+145 at bet365)
Kawhi Leonard turned into a different player this season, taking 29% of his shots from outside the arc which marked the second-highest clip of his career and the most since 2012.
Leonard maintained excellent marks, too, shooting 41.1% in his abbreviated season – and thus far in this series he’s shooting 50% on roughly five looks per game.
That would seem to make this one a sharp line, but I love the price on the Over with Leonard taking 13 shots from outside in the last two and cashing in three times in each. The Denver Nuggets ranked 21st against the three over the course of April and haven’t looked much better in the playoffs in allowing 39.8% shooting from downtown to rank among the worst in the field.
Expect Leonard to continue forcing the issue from outside as the Los Angeles Clippers look to exploit a massive weak spot in this Denver defense.
Kris Dunn Over 3.5 rebounds (-130 at bet365)
The Clippers finished the season at a torrid pace on the glass, ranking second in rebounding rate in April and finishing in fourth for the season. Now, Denver did sit second, but we can’t expect the rebounding discrepancy to remain this large over the course of the series.
One way the Clippers can get back into this battle on the boards is by deploying Kris Dunn for more minutes – and thus far he’s been rather important with 27 per game. H’s an excellent rebounder for a guard, averaging 5.1 per 36 minutes this year, but it’s taken a further leap in the playoffs with 14 total boards across his last two games.
Denver’s a tough team to rebound against if you’re assigned to Nikola Jokic, Aaron Gordon or Michael Porter, Jr. but for Dunn, the task is a bit easier coming from the arc. This is a trend I like to continue as we see L.A. close the gap between these teams on the glass.
Aaron Gordon Over 1.5 made threes (+165 at bet365)
The Clippers have been lights out on defense, but one area they’ve been ever so vulnerable is the three-point arc, where they’ve allowed 37.5% shooting in this series.
Now, it’s no surprise given Denver can shoot the ball, but it’s also not entirely shocking with this team ranking just 16th against the three in April.
With Porter listed as questionable here and Denver looking for more creative ways to score after an 83-point performance in Game 3, I’m going to take a shot here on Gordon to hit a couple of threes.
He should theoretically find himself open given L.A.’s issues against the three and his low shot frequency from outside, and he’s at least taken three or more in every game this series with two of his looks falling last time out.
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