The Denver Nuggets and the Atlanta Hawks will face off at Ball Arena on Wednesday night as Nikola Jokic goes head-to-head with Trae Young. Tipoff is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. ET, with the game airing on NBA League Pass.
The narrative is shifting, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has gained significant momentum in the NBA MVP race, becoming the new favorite in the betting markets. This feels like the perfect time for Nikola Jokic to make a statement, and we're backing him to do so in our top Nuggets vs. Hawks predictions and NBA picks.
Nuggets vs Hawks SGP - January 1
Nikola Jokic 13+ assists
Michael Porter Jr. 15+ points
Nuggets moneyline
That's right, we're taking a swing here and playing a big alternate total on Nikola Jokic dropping 13 dimes against the Hawks on Wednesday. On the surface, it seems like a big number. But Jokic is more than capable, and I believe the matchup against the Atlanta Hawks opens the door to this bet — especially considering what we saw in their most recent matchup on December 8.
When the Hawks and Denver Nuggets last met, Jokic scored 48 points, and the Nuggets won by 30. The Hawks attempted to guard Jokic straight-up with Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu, and they got absolutely torched. Capela couldn’t keep up with Jokic, and Okongwu is just too small to guard him 1-on-1 in the post.
If the Hawks had won that game, maybe they would run this strategy back, trying to choke off Jokic's assists and allowing him to drop 40 points again. However, the Hawks lost by 30 points. The outcome of that game has me convinced we’ll see different defensive coverages from the Hawks.
They might start sending frequent doubles and over-helping, which would only create more assist opportunities for Jokic. The usage in the offense should also shift more toward Jokic because he has a favorable matchup against Capela and Okongwu, while Jamal Murray is likely to be harassed by Dyson Daniels all night.
If the Hawks send help to Capela and Okongwu and force the ball out of Jokic's hands, Michael Porter Jr. will likely be a massive beneficiary as a catch-and-shoot player. Porter should consistently find himself one pass away from Jokic, keeping the defense from overcommitting. I considered going with 20+ points for Porter but decided to play it safer with 15+ points and put the weight of this SGP on Jokic.
The final leg of the parlay is the Nuggets on the moneyline against the Hawks. At the end of the day, I think this is a bad matchup for the Hawks. They don’t have the defenders to slow down Jokic, and the Nuggets are rolling right now, especially after finding something with Russell Westbrook. I believe the Nuggets should be 6.5-point home favorites, so I’m more than happy to include the moneyline price in our SGP.
New Users
Choose your welcome bonus at bet365
Get in on the NBA action at bet365, which is offering new users a choice of two incredible offers:
- Up to $1,000 in bonus bets back (if your first bet doesn't win)
- Bet $5, get $150 in bonus bets instantly
Sign up now to pick your offer at bet365, or learn more with our comprehensive bet365 review.
Eligible U.S. locations only. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
