NBA play resumes tonight following the All-Star break and with three-quarters of the season in the rearview mirror, it's go time for teams trying to secure playoff spots. The Denver Nuggets won five of six before the break and will play their next six against teams below .500. They begin with a home-and-home set against the Sacramento Kings, whose playoff chances are slowly evaporating. Will Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets keep the ball rolling or will the new-look Kings have something else in mind Thursday night?
Continue reading for free NBA betting picks and analysis for the Nuggets vs Kings matchup on Thursday, February 24th.
Nuggets vs Kings odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
WRITER ANALYSIS (Where it opened, line moves at time of writing, closing odds for last H2H meeting).
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Nuggets vs Kings predictions
Predictions made on 2/24/2022 at 2:50 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Nuggets vs Kings game info
• Location: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA
• Date: Thursday, February 24, 2022
• Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: NBCS-California, Altitude
Nuggets vs Kings betting preview
Key injuries
Nuggets: DeMarcus Cousins C (Out).
Kings: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Kings are 12-5 to the Over in totals of 230 or more and have played 6-1 to the Over in their last seven. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Kings.
Nuggets vs Kings picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
The Denver Nuggets have been taking care of business since Christmas, boasting an 18-9 record during that time while dropping just two games to sub-.500 teams compared to the five times in the 31 games prior to that. There are still questions regarding the Nuggets' ceiling, seeing as they've managed just a 6-7 record against teams above .500 during this 18-9 stretch, but that's still miles better than the 5-11 record they managed against those teams prior to Christmas.
So what has changed?
| Stat | Before Christmas | Since Christmas |
|---|---|---|
| Net rating | -0.8 (19th) | 5.3 (6th) |
| Offensive rating | 109.0 (18th) | 115.3 (7th) |
| Defensive rating | 109.7 (20th) | 110.0 (12th) |
| Assist % | 63.7% (5th) | 69.0% (1st) |
| Turnover % | 13.9% (12th) | 15.5% (29th) |
On offense, the Nuggets have been a bit more daring with the ball. They are pushing the pace a bit more (15th in fast-break points before Christmas compared to 10th since) while also leaning on small-window passes to cutters through the paint (14th in points in the paint vs. 7th). While doing these two things can lend their hand to more turnovers, they also in theory provide higher percentage looks.
On paper, that approach looks like it could pay huge dividends in this home-and-home series against the Kings, who rank 23rd in points allowed on fast breaks and dead last in points allowed in the paint. But their roster overhaul at the trade deadline may make season-long numbers irrelevant when examining the matchup. In an admittedly small sample size of four games since acquiring the likes of Domantas Sabonis, Justin Holiday, Donte DiVincenzo, and Jeremy Lamb, Sacramento has allowed just an average of 9.3 points on fast breaks and 46 points in the paint. Those marks would rank a much more respectable 2nd and 14th against league-wide seasonal averages. Again, a small sample size but one worth noting.
On top of that, Kings head coach Alvin Gentry is a much better coach than he gets credit for, and it'd be unwise to think he wouldn't use the entirety of the All-Star break to the team's full benefit, whether that means acclimating the new additions or shaping the team's schemes to best fit the new pieces. Gentry can take someone like Sabonis, who is averaging 12 rebounds on the year, and put him in the best position to bolster the Kings' 23rd-ranked defensive rebounding rate. He can lean on Holiday as a ball-handler and unlock a wider range of responsibility for De'Aaron Fox, who has averaged 28 points per game while shooting above 50% from the field in the four games since the Kings began making major moves.
There are certainly plenty of things to be critical of when it comes to Kings, but most of that should be levied against the people above Gentry's pay grade (the front office and ownership). And while the Kings' play this season has been less than spectacular, Gentry should be able to find some fun with his new toys.
Prediction: Kings +4.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
The total for tonight's game has been pushed from 229 at open all the way to 233.5. Denver has only seen five totals of 230 or more and has gone 3-2 to the Over. Sacramento is much more familiar with that territory, having seen totals in this range 17 times this season while going 12-5 to the Over. They've also been privy to high-scoring affairs of late, going 6-1 to the Over in their last seven.
Much of that is a product of the Kings' ninth-ranked pace of play, and their second-worst rank in defensive rating — to say they invite boat races would be underselling it. And within the context of the extended break and Sacramento's roster shakeup, there are a lot of elements pointing towards more scoring.
Jokic is a machine in his own right but he's been prone to gassing out from time to time down the stretch. Sabonis is an extremely proficient scorer — and is a huge addition on offense — but he also has an earned reputation of being defensively deficient. And as mentioned, the new-look Kings have seemingly opened up things for Fox on offense.
This isn't a strong inclination by any means, especially given the movement that's already occurred on the line, but the case could be made.
Prediction: Over 233.5 (-110)
Best bet
With Thursday being the return of NBA games, there will undoubtedly be more eyes and action on tonight's slate than usual. That typically means more recreational bettors, and the Nuggets being "only" 4.5-point favorites is going to catch a lot of eyes from that crowd — especially against a team that has been so widely criticized in the media.
But when examining the structure of the underlying matchup, the value is actually on the unsuspecting side. If the Kings are even remotely close to the team they looked to be just prior to the All-Star break, then they have the tools to punish a Nuggets team that has been more daring as of late with their approach.
Expect Alvin Gentry and the new-look Kings to give the Nuggets trouble tonight.
Pick: Kings +4.5 (-110)
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