Nuggets vs Raptors Picks and Predictions: Raps Smoke Nugs on Home Turf

Don't look now, but the Toronto Raptors are charging. 

The Raps are surging up the Eastern Conference standings on the back of a 9-1 stretch over their last 10 and are currently in sixth, closing in on the chase for — gasp! — the No. 1 seed. 

Tonight, The North tries to inch closer to that fray as it welcomes the Denver Nuggets, fresh off a loss in Boston last night. 

Find out who has the betting edge with our Nuggets vs. Raptors picks and predictions for Saturday, February 12.

Nuggets vs Raptors odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Toronto opened as a -3.5 favorite and saw sharp action push to -4 quickly. The spread can be had anywhere from -3.5 to -4.5 as of late Saturday morning. The total opened at 222.5 and currently sits at 223.5 in most spots.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Nuggets vs Raptors predictions

• Prediction: Toronto -3.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 223.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Over 223.5 (-110)

Predictions made on 2/12/2022 at 11:50 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Nuggets vs Raptors game info

• Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
• Date: Saturday, February 12, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: TSN, ALT

Nuggets vs Raptors betting preview

Key injuries

Nuggets: Monte Morris PG (Questionable), Michael Porter Jr SF (Out), Jamal Murray PG (Out).
Raptors: Fred VanVleet PG (Questionable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Raptors are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Raptors.

Nuggets vs Raptors picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

The Raptors are on an absolute rampage right now, winning eight straight, including wins over East rivals Miami (twice), Atlanta (twice), Charlotte and Chicago. 

The trick to the Raptors' recent success isn't some huge secret: their bench sucks and Nick Nurse has effectively stopped playing it. While some will argue the long-term effects of going full Thibodeau and playing your starters 40+ minutes every night, the short-term results can't be disputed. 

Toronto has covered in all of its eight consecutive wins, clearing the spread itself by an average of 10.62 points in the last four and making opponents look like the feeding scene from Jurassic Park. 

And the Raptors are getting it from all angles: 

Fred VanVleet continues to prove why he's a no-brainer All-Star. Gary Trent Jr. is a constant liability to go off. After a slow start, Pascal Siakam is playing the best all-around basketball of his life. And even OG Anunoby, while not taking the leap many thought he would, is having a career year. This is a dangerous unit, even without a true center in its rotation. 

That whole lack of a center thing could be of note tonight when Toronto is trying to challenge reigning MVP Nikola Jokic, a 7-foot brute who can dominate from just about anywhere on the court, but will be relentless in pummeling the Raptors in the paint. 

But while Jokic will no doubt get his in this matchup, it's tough to see the rest of Denver's supporting cast leveling up here. Toronto owns the edge at basically every other position, and can outgun Jokic by committee even if his size is imposing. Think of a pack of hungry raptors ambushing an unsuspecting brontosaur.

The Nuggets took a tough loss to the Celtics just last night, while the Raptors haven't played an actual basketball game in five days (blowout wins over Houston and OKC this week). Their starters' legs will be as fresh as ever to play a bunch of minutes, and those results of late haven't been great for their opposition.

Prediction: Toronto -3.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

The Nuggets are one of the league's most mercurial teams for total betting. By nature, Denver is a slow team: it ranks in the Bottom 10 of the NBA in pace and has for several seasons. 

But operating with one of the most efficient scorers and distributors in the history of basketball as its offensive hub, Denver can put up points in a hurry, and fight fire with fire against pretty much any team in the league.

Jokic gives the Nuggets the power to open up if they so choose: a hidden Howitzer against any team that feels like getting into a shootout. And knowing what Toronto's been up to lately, that feels like exactly what we're about to get tonight.

The Raps have been the NBA's fourth-highest scoring team over their past ten games, matching that mark in offensive rating. Denver's not too far behind, at seventh and seventh over the same sample.

In that same ten-game stretch (which is a key sample for a team like Toronto that recently made a dramatic roster adjustment) the Raptors and Nuggets are averaging a combined 236.2 ppg, so obviously this 223.5 total is counting on a huge regression from the current pace. 

Given the Raptors' multiple weapons and Jokic's ability to impose his will down low to generate high-efficiency looks and second-chance points, we don't see an Under hitting against this total.

Prediction: Over 223.5 (-110)

Best bet

Either of the above picks could serve as a best bet. 

We have too much faith in the Raptors' current form, especially after Jokic had a great effort last night (23/16/11) and still came up short. The Nuggets will be weary after that loss and an overnight flight, while Toronto's starters will be fresh and, honestly, look like a completely different team this past month. 

Meanwhile, this total just seems way too low, especially given the matchup and how Denver can exploit easy buckets against a team with next-to-no rim protection, rather than grind the game to a halt. 

If forced to choose, we'd side with the Over, but feel great about either. 

Also, feel free to sprinkle on Pascal Siakam Over 37.5 points + rebounds + assists at -120, a total he's topped in four of five games and eight of his past 11.

Pick: Over 223.5 points (-110)

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