Nuggets vs Spurs Picks and Predictions: Nuggets Control Tempo, Game

The Denver Nuggets continue their wayward season, traveling to visit the San Antonio Spurs Thursday night. 

The Nuggets have been besieged by injuries this year, hanging on at .500 due to the brilliance of reigning MVP Nikola Jokic. Meanwhile, the Spurs are basically in rebuild mode, further from the playoff picture than they've been in over 20 years,  

Find out who's worth backing tonight with our NBA picks and predictions for Nuggets vs. Spurs on December 9.

Nuggets vs Spurs odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Denver opened as -1.5 favorites at some outlets, -1 at others, with neither line seeing any movement as of Thursday morning. The total opened at 214.5 with slight movement to the Under from select outlets. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Nuggets vs Spurs predictions

• Prediction: Denver -1 (-115)
• Prediction: Under 214.5 (-110)
• Best bet: stay tuned!

Predictions made on 12/9/2021 at 7:25 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Nuggets vs Spurs game info

• Location: AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX
• Date: Thursday, December 9, 2021
• Tip-off: 8:30 p.m. ET
• TV: BSSW-SA, ALT

Nuggets vs Spurs betting preview

Injuries

Nuggets: Jamal Murray PG (Out), Michael Porter Jr. SF (Out), P.J. Dozier SG (Out), Austin Rivers SG (Out).
Spurs: Keldon Johnson SF (Doubtful), Devin Vassell SG (Doubtful), Zach Collins PF (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a losing record. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Spurs.

Nuggets vs Spurs picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

Despite the gap in records between these two teams, there's very little separating their current forms. The Spurs are 4-6 in their last 10 games while the Nuggets are 3-7, and the two sides have nearly identical net ratings, ranked 16th (Denver) and 17th (San Antonio), separated by just 0.2 points. 

But what the Spurs don't have is Nikola Jokic, a seven-foot-tall virtuoso who can win games in a multitude of manners. He ripped San Antonio for 32/16/7 in their earlier meeting this season, a 102-96 Denver victory on October 22. 

Obviously, since then, the Nuggets have lost ascendent swingman Michael Porter Jr., which can't be counted as much of a negative. Porter was clearly hobbled (hence his season-ending back surgery), averaging less than 10 points on just 36% shooting, while playing minus defense. Denver isn't much worse off without him, if at all. 

The Nuggets are getting contributions from others: Will Barton has had a completely resurgent season, Aaron Gordon continues to be solid all-around, Monte Morris remains an efficient and underrated option at point guard, and even rookie Bones Hyland has come out nowhere with sparkplug minutes as a backup PG. 

The Spurs have the better point guard in this game, but that might be it if starting PF Keldon Johnson sits out tonight, further depleting San Antonio's already-thin front line. Jokic can have his way with a frontcourt that coughs up opponent center points at a Bottom-10 rate, while collectively raising the floor of those around him in ways nobody on the Spurs can. As good as Dejounte Murray is, he can't even hope to go blow-for-blow with a player like Joker.

Denver's back-to-back is one reason to pause before siding with them, but Jokic is averaging 28.3/13.6/6.3 on the back-end of three such sets this year, with that sample depressed by a matchup with Utah and reigning DPOY Rudy Gobert. Joker destroyed New Orleans down the stretch last night, and even if not perfectly fresh, will come into this game on a high. 

Denver hasn't been the better ATS team this season, but they are better on paper and have, by far, this game's best player. Sometimes the trends don't tell the whole story, and in a matchup with margins this thin, the MVP should make his presence felt.

Prediction: Denver -1 (-115)

Over/Under analysis

This shouldn't profile as a high-scoring game — it usually doesn't with Denver involved. The Nuggets are only a league-average defense, but still allow the NBA's third-fewest points per game (104.5) by virtue of playing at its second-slowest pace. Likewise, Denver only scores (104.4) ppg, collectively putting their projection well below tonight's 214.5 total.

We can probably expect a further regression based on last night's Denver OT win. They'll be looking to milk every possession and keep their relatively thin roster's legs fresh, rather than getting into a track meet and trying to outscore the Spurs. 

While San Antonio plays at the NBA's sixth-fastest pace, they're only its 23rd-ranked offense and probably can't control tempo as well as Denver, who are more experienced and have a slow-moving MVP center who can milk every possession and pass out of double-teams better than any big man ever if the Spurs swarm him. 

The Spurs are less likely to catch fire and put up a huge number anomalously, as they shoot the fewest 3-pointers in the NBA. Look for Denver to strangle this game's pace to a crawl and keep it below the total.

Prediction: Under 214.5 (-110)

Best bet

Given Denver's OT win in a different city last night, it's natural that they might come out of the gates a little fatigued in this game. 

It's also natural that the Spurs, more rested and with younger legs, could assert themselves at home early. San Antonio owns the NBA's second-best first-half ATS record this season at 15-7. 

Given both that number and the situational matchup, we like the Spurs to have the lead going into the half, before Jokic and Denver buckle down as they did against the Pelicans.

Pick: San Antonio 1H -1 (-110)

Pages related to this topic