The Portland Trail Blazers will look to even their series with the Denver Nuggets in Game 4, before the series returns to Denver for what could be a fifth and final game, should the Nuggets go two-for-two in the City of Roses.
Can Damian Lillard and Portland deliver a win in front of their home crowd? Find out in our free NBA betting picks and predictions for Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers on May 29 at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Nuggets vs Trail Blazers game info
• Location: Moda Center, Portland, OR
• Date: Saturday, May 29, 2021
• Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT
Nuggets vs Trail Blazers odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NBA Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonThe line opened at Trail Blazers -3.5, with the total at 228.5. Early action favored Portland and Under. Check back later for a full report from Patrick!
Check out the full line movement for this gameNuggets vs Trail Blazers series odds
Nuggets: -213
Trail Blazers: +150
Nuggets vs Trail Blazers betting preview
Injuries
Nuggets: Will Barton SG (Out), PJ Dozier SG (Out), Jamal Murray PG (Out).
Trail Blazers: Zach Collins PF (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 4-0 in Denver and Portland's first round series. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Denver handled its division rival Blazers during the regular season, dropping just one of three meetings — a loss which came after Jamal Murray's season-ending injury. While that win may have given Portland the confidence that it could knock a Murray-less Denver off in four of seven tries, Murray's absence wouldn't mean much if the Blazers couldn't contain Nikola Jokic with any sort of consistency.
Through three games, that is not going well. Portland center Jusuf Nurkic has fouled out twice already this series, as he has been completely incapable of defending Jokic cleanly. Nurkic's foul trouble has put the Blazers in a bind, as their backup center, Enes Kanter, is famously difficult to play in the postseason and didn't even hit the six-minute threshold in Game 3.
Jokic has dominated, and will continue to dominate, his matchup to such a degree that the Blazers' only hope of winning is a scorching shooting night combined with Denver getting absolutely nothing from Michael Porter Jr. or the rest of Jokic's supporting cast. Unfortunately, Porter Jr.'s cold night in Game 3 — 15 points on under 50 percent shooting — coincided with Austin Rivers hitting 5 of 10 3-pointers in a 21-point outburst.
Rivers effectively halted any Blazers hope of stealing Game 3, and now Portland has to rebound knowing Jokic and Porter Jr. are likely to deliver in every game the rest of the way. A one-dimensional team dealing with a gut punch and the league MVP is a recipe for a loss. The Nuggets can set themselves up for a gentleman's sweep in Denver.
PREDICTION: Nuggets +4 (-106)
Over/Under pick
While it hasn't come as a surprise, given the series is contested between teams that finished fourth and fifth in offensive rating during the regular season, plus Portland's dreadful defense, it's been three straight easy Overs to begin the series. Denver and Portland have combined to clear the total by 8.6 points per game, with hot shooting and Nikola Jokic's brilliance driving two great offenses thus far.
Both the Nuggets and Trail Blazers' reliability as an Over bet was on display in Game 3. Denver, shooting 51.9 percent through two games, connected on 46.4 of its attempts in Game 3, while Portland drained 45 percent of its attempts, down from its field goal rate of 47.5 through games one and two. Despite both teams' worse shooting night of the series coming in the game with the highest total, they still went Over by eight points.
Not only do both teams have an All-NBA level threat on offense, between Jokic and Lillard, but they play in an analytically sound manner. Both Denver and Portland were in the Top-10 in 3-point field goal percentage during the regular season and between the two aforementioned superstars, as well as Michael Porter Jr. and C.J. McCollum, boast a pair of high-efficiency scorers each.
If Portland is going to level this series up before it returns to Denver, it's going to need to outscore a phenomenal Nuggets offense. Whether the Blazers are successful or not, it will lead to another high-scoring affair.
We will continue to be all Over this series.
PREDICTION: Over 228.5 (+100)
Player prop pick
Not that there was any doubt remaining, but Jokic has put his stamp on an MVP campaign through three games of the postseason. Operating without his running mate and proven playoff stud Jamal Murray, Jokic has absolutely dominated for Denver, upping his usage while continuing to operate as the league's best hub on offense.
Big Honey is averaging 36 points per game with 11.7 rebounds and 3.7 assists, as he has handled a matchup with former teammate Nurkic with little problems. Jokic is in the rare class of superstar capable of increasing his production to absurd rates in the playoffs, and he'll get to continue to do that against a Portland defense that's never been close to having an answer.
PREDICTION: Nikola Jokic Over 50.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-120)
Nuggets vs Trail Blazers betting card
- Nuggets +4 (-106)
- Over 228.5 (+100)
- Nikola Jokic Over 50.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-120)
Picks made on 5/28/2021 at 6:35 p.m. ET
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