Oddsmakers set a record-high total for Game 1 of Cavaliers-Warriors NBA Finals

The Cavaliers and Warriors have produced a 4-7-2 Over/Under record in their previous two NBA Finals meetings. Can they top a record-high total in Game 1 Thursday?

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst
May 26, 2017 • 11:00 ET

If “defense wins championships”, the world must also be flat and photographs steal your soul. That popular sports cliché is about as truthful as a dating profile, especially with oddsmakers setting a record-high betting total for Game 1 of the NBA Finals.

Sportsbooks opened the Game 1 Over/Under at 225.5 points, with both the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors possessing a surplus of offensive weaponry. That Over/Under number is the largest total in the Covers database (1990-91-2017) and easily eclipses the previous high of 214 points, which was set for Game 3 of the 1995 NBA Finals between the Orlando Magic and Houston Rockets.

The Cavaliers are averaging 116.8 points per game this postseason while the Warriors are putting up 118.3 ppg, and the two conference champs have combined for an 18-7 Over/Under count in the playoffs. That’s a 72 percent winning clip if you blindly bet the Over in each of their postseason games.

Looking back at the biggest totals in NBA Finals history, there have been just 21 championship series games with a number of 200 or more points since 1991. Those contests finished 8-12-1 Over/Under, staying below the total 60 percent of the time. There have been four finals games with totals of 211 or more points in that span, and those have split 2-2 O/U. Those previous 21 NBA Finals games, with totals of 200 or more points, saw an average of 200.9 points scored.

With this being the third installment of the Cleveland-Golden State finals saga, basketball bettors do have some history to weigh these totals trend against. In 2015, the Cavs and Dubs combined for a 2-3-1 O/U record in the NBA Finals (194.16 ppg vs. 196.7 ave total), and last year they finished 2-4-1 O/U in the finals (200.28 ppg vs. 207.93 ave total).

Overall, the NBA Finals is a breeding ground for low-scoring basketball. Going back to the 1990-91 season, NBA Finals games have a 54-80-5 Over/Under record (59.7 percent Unders) with an average combined score of 187.18 points versus an average closing total of 189.81. And since 2000, the NBA Finals has pumped out a 36-48-5 O/U count (57 percent Unders).

Focusing specifically on Game 1 of the NBA Finals over the past 25 years, the Under has been a profitable 9-15-1 O/U since 1991 with an average combined score of 185.56 points versus an average closing total of 191.56. That Game 1 trend is 3-9-1 O/U since the 2004 finals.

And, breaking it down by spread, there have been 24 NBA Finals games with favorites of seven or more points the last 25 postseasons. Those contests finished 9-14-1 Over/Under – a 61 percent winning clip for the Under.

Golden State opened as a 7-point home favorite versus Cleveland for Game 1 of the NBA Finals Thursday night.

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Jason Logan Senior Industry Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst “JLo” has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.

Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he’s honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet.

He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous “NFL Underdogs” column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason’s first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns.

On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast – WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio – he’s had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers’ flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.

His best advice for bettors new and old is “Handicapping isn’t a ‘one size fits all’ process. The impact and importance of information varies from bet to bet. Treat each wager different than the last.”

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