Pacers vs Nuggets Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Don't Overlook Undermanned Indy

Two teams playing solid ball clash will clash in the Mile High City, as the Denver Nuggets host the Indiana Pacers.

The Pacers have wins in nine of their last 10, the last two without star point guard Tyrese Haliburton, who will miss his third straight with a hamstring injury.

Denver has wins in 10 of their last 13, the most recent being a bounceback effort over New Orleans after getting upended in Utah.

Tied for the most home wins in the West, it’s no surprise the Nuggets are 10.5-point favorites in the NBA odds.

Read below for my Pacers vs. Nuggets breakdown, complete with my free NBA picks and best bets.

Pacers vs Nuggets odds

Pacers vs Nuggets predictions

Down their leading scorer and the league leaders in assists at 12.5 per game, the Indiana Pacers have spread the love around to make up for the loss of Haliburton.

It was a total team effort in a 126-108 win over the Hawks last game, with eight players scoring in double digits. The team's three leading scorers in the game all came off the bench: Obi Toppin and Buddy Hield each scored 18 on a combined 14-for-18 shooting, while Bennedict Mathurin chipped in with 15.

The top assist team in basketball, the Pacers’ philosophy spreads up and down the roster, as evidenced by their 41 assists against Atlanta. Nine players had at least two dimes, led by reserve TJ McConnell, who dished out 14 assists.

If there’s one noticeable stat in this 10-game fun run, it’s their scoring defense. A bottom-feeder at 28th allowing 123.4 points per game, the Pacers have trimmed that to 116.7 points during the streak. 

A middling defense has made the difference, as Indiana continues to lead the league in scoring at 126.6 points per game. They will be tested, though, as the Denver Nuggets present the first legitimate opponent minus Haliburton. 

The defending champs are dynamite at home, averaging 120.8 points per game on 51.2% shooting from the field and 38.9% from 3-point range. They’re nearly 10 points per game better at home than on the road. 

While their interest seems to waver from time to time (as most title winners do at some point if they’re in contention the following season), Denver’s defense shows up most nights, allowing 111.1 points per game, second in the NBA to only the Timberwolves.

After a 124-11 clunker in Utah, the Nuggets regrouped with a 125-113 win back at home over the Pelicans. Having righted that previous performance, which head coach Mike Malone said "wasn’t Denver Nuggets basketball," I wonder how in tune they are for a Pacers team without Haliburton.

They’ve dominated this series, winning six straight head-to-heads, including the last three in Denver, covering all three. 

However, they're just 5-5 against the spread in those games, and this is only the second matchup that’s been set at double digits — with Indy covering that previous 10-point spread.

I’m almost certain Denver will take it, but Indy should stay within range.

My best bet: Pacers +10.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Pacers vs Nuggets same-game parlay

Pacers +10.5

Nikola Jokic Over 24.5 points

Andrew Nembhard Over 5.5 assists

+435 at DraftKings

There’s never a wrong time to throw Nikola Jokic into a same-game parlay, but it's getting increasingly harder to target your wager with how varied his game has been.

This week, he’s already racked up a 16-assist game where he only took three shots. Then again, he’s led the team in points, rebounds, and assists in back-to-back games.

I believe the safest bet is scoring, where he ranks 15th in the NBA at 25.5 per contest. During their current six-game win streak against the Pacers, Jokic has played in four and is averaging 28.3 points per game.

He's blown through his set line of 24.5 four times in the last five games overall, with the Pistons’ 2-for-3 effort the lone blip in the scoring binge. 

Let’s highlight Haliburton’s replacement in the starting lineup to add a third leg to this SGP. Andrew Nembhard has averaged 5.5 assists in his last two games as the lead guard — which happens to be his total against Denver.

In their last meeting, a Denver 134-111 thumping, Nembhard finished with six dimes, the same number he had last time out against the Hawks. This one should be fairly high-scoring, giving the 23-year-old ample opportunities to dish.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Pacers vs Nuggets spread and Over/Under analysis

For a brief time on Saturday afternoon, you could find this spread at less than double digits, but that 10.5-point line seems firmly entrenched at most books now, with some sites topping out at 11 points.

The Pacers are one of the top cover teams in basketball, going 22-16-1 ATS. Denver is just 18-22-0 ATS on the year, but a more respectable 11-8-1 at home.

The total has touched as high as 241 points, but most books have settled into the 238.5-239.5 range. The Over is 7-3-0 in the last 10 meetings.

Pacers vs Nuggets betting trend to know

The Nuggets have won 12 of their last 13 games against the Pacers at Ball Arena. Find more NBA betting trends for Pacers vs. Nuggets.

Pacers vs Nuggets game info

Pacers vs Nuggets latest injuries

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