Buckle up, strap on your crash helmet, and don’t forget to hydrate because the No. 9 Indiana Pacers play the No. 8 Washington Wizards in the second round of the NBA’s play-in tournament Thursday.
Indiana and Washington rank No. 1 and No. 2 in pace rating since April 1 and produced some high-octane and high-scoring NBA betting results, combining for 799 total points in regulation (266.3 ppg) in their three meetings. The Pacers are off a huge win over Charlotte on Tuesday while the Wizards fell at Boston, setting up this must-win matchup.
Here are free NBA betting picks and predictions for Pacers vs. Wizards on May 20.
Pacers vs Wizards game info
• Location: Capital One Arena, Washington, DC
• Date: Thursday, May 20, 2021
• Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT
Pacers vs Wizards odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NBA Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonPointsBet USA moved Washington from Wednesday morning's -3.5 opener to -3 within a few hours, then this morning returned to -3.5, where the number remains at 5 p.m. ET. The Wizards are drawing 64 percent of tickets and 61 percent of money on the spread. The total opened at 241, dropped to 237 this morning and is now 238.5, with the Over getting 73 percent of tickets/79 percent of dollars.
Check out the full line movement for this gamePacers at Wizards betting preview
Injuries
Pacers: Jeremy Lamb G (Questionable), Caris LeVert F (Out), Myles Turner F (Out).
Wizards: Bradley Beal G (Probable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 13-3 in Pacers’ last 16 games as road underdogs. Find more NBA betting trends for Pacers vs. Wizards.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Indiana turned heads with its squashing of the Hornets in Round 1 of the play-in, hanging 69 points on Charlotte in the opening half en route to a 144-117 ass waxing and a ticket to Round 2 of the tournament.
The Pacers’ scoring depth was bolstered by the return of standout guard Malcolm Brogdon, who eased his way back from a hamstring injury with 16 points and eight assists in just over 21 minutes in his first action since April 29. Brogdon was one of eight Indiana players to score 12 points or more versus the Hornets.
And speaking of hamstring injuries, Washington’s star scorer Bradley Beal fought through just that in Tuesday’s loss at Boston. Beal was visibly slowed by the injury, shooting a honking 10 for 25 from the field (1 for 6 from 3-point range) for only 22 points. If the Wizards are going to keep pace with the Pacers (yeah, I said it), Beal needs to heal up in a hurry.
You can almost smell the stink of a momentum swing between these two clubs.
Indiana was plagued with injuries the past two months and slid down the standings with a rough patch in April but finished the season stronger than it seems and is much healthier. The Pacers played elite teams like Philadelphia, Milwaukee and the L.A. Lakers (going just 1-2 SU) and took a win over feisty Toronto to finish the schedule on a four-game ATS run, before blasting Charlotte.
On the other hand, Washington put together an incredible run in April (12-5 SU) but showed signs of sputtering in the season's home stretch and appears to have peaked too soon. The Wizards looked listless in Tuesday’s defeat, shooting 43 percent as a team and going an embarrassing 3 for 21 from distance.
The Pacers are a rare breed that actually plays better away from home, owning a 21-15 SU mark on the road while going 19-16-1 ATS as visitors. Indiana is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine road stops overall and although one of those losses was in D.C., it’s not enough to scare us off the Pacers and the points Thursday.
PREDICTION: Indiana +3.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The Pacers and Wizards own the highest NBA betting total this season, posting a closing number of 250 points for their meeting in Indiana on May 8: a 133-132 overtime win for Washington that needed the extra frame to go Over the total after being tied 124-124 after 48 minutes.
That said, these clubs laid waste to the Over/Under marks in the two games prior, including combining for 295 points versus a 245.5-point total in Washington on May 3. The Wizards’ poor offensive effort on Tuesday, as well as Beal’s busted wheel, may scare some folks off another high-scoring finish but you’re not going to get much push back from the Pacers.
Indiana’s interior is softer than the midsection of a 40-year-old father of three (trust me, I know), giving up an NBA-high 53.8 points in the paint per game while watching opponents make an average of 21.4 field goals inside of five feet of the basket (another league high). Washington thrives on getting to the hoop, scoring a league-best 58.7 points in the paint per game since April 1 and averaging an incredible 78.7 PITP over its three meetings with the Pacers.
The Wiz will trade high-percentage looks with Indiana’s barrage of triples (16 for 35 from 3-point land vs. Charlotte and hitting 38.7 percent of looks from distance over this five-game ATS run), and push this final score Over the number Thursday night.
PREDICTION: Over 240.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
The Wizards’ season could be resting on Russell Westbrook’s shoulders with Beal at less than 100 percent.
Russ wasn’t great in Tuesday’s loss to the Celtics, scoring 20 points on 6-of-18 shooting, and has hit a bit of a rut at the end of a very long season and frenzied postseason push. Westbrook is a collective 19 for 51 in his last three games, with point tallies of 20, 23, and 21.
However, Indiana’s revolving door defense is just what Westbrook needs to get back on track. He had efforts of 33 and 35 points in past clashes with the Pacers and while he may have scored just 14 points in the May 3 matchup, he was busy dishing out 24 assists and grabbing 21 rebounds.
If Westbrook is going down, he’s going down swinging.
PREDICTION: Russell Westbrook Over 25.5 Points (-115)
Pacers vs Wizards betting card
- Indiana +3.5 (-110)
- Over 240.5 (-110)
- Russell Westbrook Over 25.5 Points (-115)
Picks made on 5/19/2021 at 10:31 a.m. ET
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