Pelicans vs Lakers Picks and Predictions: Zion Still Good on Road

The Lakers got their first win of the season, but the Pelicans have a low-key deep lineup and Brandon Ingram's absence is one they can stomach. Our NBA picks explain why bettors should see the Lakers' woes continue Wednesday night.

Shawn Wronka - Contributor at Covers.com
Shawn Wronka • Betting Analyst
Nov 2, 2022 • 11:41 ET • 4 min read
Zion Williamson NBA picks
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The New Orleans Pelicans (4-2) have held together unbelievably strong despite missing games from the likes of Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, and Herbert Jones. They will still be missing Ingram for the final game of this three-game road trip, a date with the Los Angeles Lakers (1-5).

The Lakers are fresh off of their first win of the season, an admittedly impressive 121-110 victory over the Denver Nuggets. LeBron James (26 points, 8 assists, 6 rebounds) and Anthony Davis (23 points, 15 rebounds) led the way, with Russell Westbrook playing a pivotal role off of the bench.

Find out which team has the short-term answers with our Pelicans vs. Lakers NBA picks and predictions for Wednesday, November 2.

Pelicans vs Lakers best odds

Pelicans vs Lakers picks and predictions

In many ways, the Wednesday night matchup between the Pelicans and Lakers features two teams that are polar opposites. On one hand, you have the Lakers — recent champions chock full of proven MVP and first-team All-NBA level players with LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Russell Westbrook combining for five of the former and a whopping 31 of the latter.

The Pelicans have none of either. Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, and CJ McCollum are all extremely talented in their own right and range from brimming with unmatched potential (Zion) to being on the verge of a superstar-level breakout (Ingram) to being a pivotal and much-needed No. 3 (McCollum) on a team looking to make even more playoff noise come springtime.

New Orleans also has a breadth of depth across their lineup to complement their "Big Three", ranging from All-Rookie defensive stalwart Herbert Jones to per-36 god Jonas Valanciunas, to the pesky Jose Alvarado and versatile and athletic Larry Nance Jr. In fact, there’s an argument that the Pelicans have one of the better 1-through-9 rotations in the entire league.

That is another area where these teams differ in extreme fashion. The Lakers' bench ranks eighth-worst in scoring (29.8 ppg), fifth-worst in three-point percentage (31.5%), and second-worst in field goal percentage (40.9%).

The perimeter deficiencies actually are much worse when extended out to the entire team, with Los Angeles shooting a league-worst 26.6%. In fact, the gap between them and the second-worst team (OKC, 29.5%) is as large as the gap between OKC and the three teams behind them.

It's that kind of inefficiency and lack of depth that makes winning games night in and night out really tough. And although they looked good their last time out, the Lakers' 1-5 record both straight up and against the spread is a perfect demonstration that their being NBA odds dogs of just three points for Wednesday's affair is just a bit too short.

My best bet: Pelicans -3 (-105 at Pinnacle)

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Pelicans vs Lakers spread analysis

In comparison, the New Orleans Pelicans are 4-2 against the spread this year, largely on the back of outstandingly impressive shorthanded performances. To that point, Ingram (22.0 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 4.0 apg) did not make the trip for this three-game road stretch and will be out Wednesday.

However, the Pelicans should be getting Jones back (listed as probable), who brings a level of defensive proficiency and intensity that can lock down one of the Lakers' very limited offensive options.

Zion also returned in the last game, putting up 21 points, 12 rebounds, and 7 rebounds en route to a 112-91 beatdown of the Clippers. In fact, that game was a very well-rounded effort with five different players chipping in 15 or more points, with CJ McCollum chipping in a team-leading 22 points on 4 of 8 shooting from three.

Pelicans vs Lakers Over/Under analysis

Despite all of their shortcomings, the Lakers have been somewhat decent on the defensive end. Their 110.5 points allowed per game ranks eighth-best in the league and their 104.7 defensive rating is second only to the Bucks.

To that point, New Orleans has allowed 111.3 points per game (13th) and a 111.1 defensive rating (14th). Despite the general proficiency of both teams' defenses, their matchup features the second-highest total on the night at 228.5.

And with neither team having played since Sunday, it may take some time early in the game to shake off the shooting cobwebs. Last year, New Orleans played to a 13-7 record towards the Under on two or more days of rest, and last played on Sunday heading into tonight's game.

Pelicans vs Lakers betting trend to know

New Orleans went 13-7 towards the Under last year on two or more days of rest. Find more NBA betting trends for Pelicans vs. Lakers.

Pelicans vs Lakers game info

Location: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA
Date: Wednesday, November 2, 2022
Tip-off: 10:30 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports, Sportsnet

Pelicans vs Lakers key injuries

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Shawn Wronka - Covers
Betting Analyst

Shawn Wronka is an analytics-based sports bettor who was drawn to analytics at an early age via the stats on the back of sports cards. He began sports betting in 2016, and took an immediate interest in UFC before finding his way towards other major sports.

After years of casual betting, he took an interest in the numbers-based approach and specialized in learning and applying those techniques to niche markets such as player props, the NFL and NBA drafts, and F1. Shawn finds writing a good way to balance the time he spends on numbers, giving him an outlet to paint quantitative edges into qualitative narratives.

A graduate of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, his work has been seen in dozens of publications including the National Post, Financial Post, Calgary Herald, Vancouver Sun, and The Province.

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