The top-seeded Phoenix Suns wasted no time reminding the New Orleans Pelicans – and the rest of the West – just who the reigning conference champs are in the opener of this Round 1 playoff series Sunday.
Phoenix jumped out to a quick lead and pounded NOLA, who was playing its third game in five days after advancing through the play-in tournament. Now, New Orleans has little time to turn around from that loss and is pegged as a near double-digit dog in Arizona for Game 2.
Check out our free NBA picks and predictions for Pelicans at Suns on April 19.
Pelicans vs Suns odds
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After a 110-99 victory in Game 1, Phoenix opened as a 10.5-point favorite for Tuesday’s tilt. That spread dipped to as low as -9.5 and money on the Suns has pushed that line back to double digits at some shops, with Phoenix as big as -10.5 as of Tuesday morning. The total opened at 222 points and has slimmed to 221.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Pelicans vs Suns predictions
- Prediction: Pelicans +10.5 (-125)
- Prediction: Over 221.5 (-110)
- Best bet: Pelicans TT Over 105.5 (-114)
Predictions made on 4/19/2022 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Pelicans vs Suns game info
• Location: Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ
• Date: Tuesday, April 19, 2022
• Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT
Pelicans vs Suns series odds
Pelicans: +1,200
Suns: -3,000
Pelicans vs Suns betting preview
Key injuries
Pelicans: Zion Williamson F (Out).
Suns: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings between the Pelicans and Suns. Find more NBA betting trends for Pelicans vs. Suns.
Pelicans vs Suns picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
New Orleans looked lost in the first 24 minutes of true playoff action, falling behind 53-34 to Phoenix at the break. However, the Pelicans didn’t pack it in – despite their sticky schedule situation – and clawed their way into competition in the second half, outscoring the Suns 65-57 but ultimately losing by 11 points.
So which version shows up tonight?
New Orleans’ offense was quite efficient in the two play-in tilts, firing at a collective 51.5% success rate from the field in wins over San Antonio and the L.A. Clippers (two sound defensive teams). And if you excuse an 11-for-49 first-half shooting performance in Game 1 and focus on the 25-for-46 effort in the second half, the Pelicans are punching above their weight in recent games.
The big issue for New Orleans was its defensive motor Sunday. The Pelicans looked like a team playing a tight schedule down the stretch, most notably sucking fumes in the fourth quarter when Phoenix shot almost 65% from the floor and Chris Paul took over with his playmaking.
NOLA's defense was inconsistent in the home stretch of the season but tightened up in the play-in, checking the Spurs and Clippers (without Paul George) to less than 41% shooting including a 31% clip from beyond the arc. Phoenix was able to fire at 64% on 2-point attempts in Game 1 but hit just 10-for-38 from long range.
While a day off isn’t much rest for the weary Pelicans, the team didn’t have to jam travel plans into that downtime like the past two outings. They are about as fresh as they will get before the series swings to the Big Easy, which means a better effort on defense while the offense will pick up where it left off in the second half of the series opener.
Stealing a game in Phoenix is a tough ask for New Orleans but staying within this inflated double-digit spread should be easier than it was in Game 1.
Prediction: Pelicans +10.5 (-125 at 888Sports)
Over/Under analysis
The Pelicans’ offense was dead in the water in the opening two frames and showed the wear and tear of the team’s postseason path to Game 1.
Star guard C.J. McCollum admitted the offense was too slow and not nearly as aggressive, while also stating that New Orleans got good looks at the basket but just couldn’t knock those shots down. As mentioned, things picked up in the second half of that opener and I expect the Pelicans to play with more intensity in this second outing.
Phoenix is no stranger to tempo, ranked eighth in the NBA’s pace metric during the regular season. The Suns struggled to connect from beyond the arc in Game 1 but scored at will from inside, putting up 50 points in the paint and also racking up 15 fastbreak points thanks to quick transition off turnovers.
New Orleans finished the game with 13 turnovers but if it picks up the pace and pushes the tempo, the margin for those errors could spike. The Suns are fifth in the league in converting mistakes into buckets and sixth in forced turnovers per contest (14.7). And when the offense needs a boost, they have plenty of star power in Paul and Devin Booker, who showed they could take over offensively at any time.
The total for Game 1 opened at 226.5 points and was trimmed as low as 223.5 before closing at 224. Books may be overreacting to that first result, opening the Game 2 number as low as 221.5, but if the second half of Game 1 was any indication (122 total points scored) tonight’s total is way too low.
Prediction: Over 221.5 (-110 at PointsBet)
Best bet
The Suns are a great defensive team but part of that stingy effort in Game 1 – in which they held New Orleans to just 99 points – can be chalked up to the Pelicans’ compressed schedule as well as a classic letdown after fighting their way into the tournament after finishing ninth in the regular season.
New Orleans snapped out of that funk and scored 65 points in the final two quarters of Sunday’s game and notched more than 105 points in eight of its previous 10 contests before that loss, including exactly 105 in the win over L.A. in the play-in.
The Pelicans are one of the best teams in the NBA at drawing fouls and scoring from the line, which to NBA Over/Under bettors means scoring with the clock stopped: The key ingredient to a successful Over bet.
New Orleans was 18-for-26 from the stripe in Game 1 (just 69%) – a steep dip from its season free-throw success rate of 78.4% – but went from making 8 of 13 free throws in the first half to 10 of 13 in the second.
The Pelicans plan to be more aggressive in getting to the paint and attracting whistles in Game 2. The big and bruising starting frontcourt of Brandon Ingram, Jonas Valanciunas, and Jaxson Hayes combined for 16 of those foul shots in Game 1 and will go after the Suns’ smaller lineup tonight.
Pick: Pelicans team total Over 105.5 (-114 at FanDuel)
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