Tuesday's busy NBA betting slate is highlighted by the New Orleans Pelicans visiting the Phoenix Suns, in a clash of two favorites to assume one of the West's lower-rung playoff spots.
Both squads have the jump out of the gate, starting 2-1 and notching wins over ostensibly-superior teams. NBA odds opened at Suns -3.0, with a total of 221.5.
This game could very well have huge implications for the West's play-in race, so even though it's very early in the season, don't write off its impact. Let's jump into our Pelicans vs. Suns picks and predictions for Tuesday, December 29, tipping off at 10:00 p.m. ET.
New Orleans Pelicans at Phoenix Suns Betting Preview
Key Injuries
Pelicans: Wenyen Gabriel F (Out).
Suns: Dario Saric F (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Under is 6-1 in Pelicans' last seven and 4-0 in Suns' last four overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Pelicans vs. Suns.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
Sifting through early-season variance can be tough, especially for two squads with so much roster turnover and expected upside.
For example, the Suns signed one of the NBA's most elite and efficient playmakers (Chris Paul), and are posting a worse offensive rating than last year so far, suggesting they've yet to hit their stride.
The Pelicans lost one of their best players in Jrue Holiday, but are counting on Lonzo Ball and Eric Bledsoe to replace him on each side of the ball in aggregate. They'll also be able to fully unleash Zion Williamson, who so far is playing over 35 mpg and averaging 21.7/11.7 and 2.3 steals.
Whichever of Phoenix's defensive swingmen doesn't have his hands full with Zion will have to deal with reigning Most Improved Player and West Player of the Week Brandon Ingram, a literal Slender Man who's evolving into one of the NBA's best scorers.
Meanwhile, the Pels match up well on D with Phoenix's dangerous backcourt, sicking bulldog Bledsoe on CP3 and letting the 6'6" Ball be a larger obstacle for Devin Booker to shoot over.
The Pels probably benefit from this matchup more, and are getting points. Phoenix may very well be the better team by season's end, but we're not siding with them for this one.
PREDICTION: New Orleans +3.0 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
Fun (and surprising) fact: The Suns have been the NBA's best defensive team by a mile so far this season. Phoenix is first with an adjusted D-rating of 89.09. The gap between them and the second-place L.A. Lakers (95.21) is enough to engulf spots two through nine in the rankings.
Now, clearly, this is an unsustainable small-sample result. Milwaukee posted a 103.73 adjusted rating as one of the best defensive teams ever last year. But it does hint at a big leap for the Suns, who inserted Paul (still an elite defender), jettisoned liability Kelly Oubre, and continue to see Ayton progress on D.
It may have formerly been tempting to hammer a New Orleans Over, since they played like they were on speed last year (108.0 pace - in a virtual tie for first in the NBA). But Van Gundy is a guru of defense and discipline, and in likely-related news, the Pels are 24th in pace after three games.
The Suns have been even more deliberate, ranking 27th in pace. They held the same Dallas Mavericks team that's averaged 119.5 points in its other two games to just 102.
Both trends and the matchup suggest an Under is on the way in this one, and looking at the opening total, we have no reason to disagree.
PREDICTION: Under 221.5 (-110)
Player Prop Pick
Unless we're over-thinking this, Booker and Ingram are solid choices to be this game's top scorer. Booker scored almost 26.6 points per game last year, a mark Ingram has one-notched to 26.7 through three games so far. Several factors point to Ingram as the pick here.
The first is Booker's early-season trend. While his usage rate is about the same, his scoring has fallen almost four points to 22.6. With Paul now sharing the backcourt, and wing options like Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson emerging, Booker may not be able to replicate his pure scoring volume from last season.
Ingram, meanwhile, has also put up numbers against better opposition so far, including 24 on 52% from the floor against a Raptors team that ranked second in D-rating last year. Booker's results have come against the Mavs and Kings, who straddled the bottom-10 in the same category.
When you factor in the price (+230 for Ingram vs. +145 for Booker), this becomes a pretty easy Ingram bet. Those who think Zion will play bully-ball might also consider sprinkling on his +210.
PREDICTION: Brandon Ingram Top Scorer (+230)
Pelicans vs Suns Betting Card
- New Orleans +3.0 (-110)
- Under 221.5 (-110)
- Brandon Ingram Top Scorer (+230)
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