Remember when the NBA dominated Christmas and was the only game in town? Those days are long gone now, but December 25 is usually the unofficial start to the NBA season.
This year’s five-game slate has a bit of everything. You want new school? Victor Wembanyama is in Gotham, while nostalgics will see LeBron, Curry, and Durant all in action.
And of the teams at the top of the charts? Well, no disrespect to the OKC Thunder, who didn’t get an invite, the defending champs are here, as are their finals opponents from Dallas.
Without further ado, here are my NBA picks for Christmas Day.
NBA Christmas Day against the spread
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Spurs vs  Knicks |
(+9) |
 Timberwolves vs  Mavericks |
(-4.5) |
 76ers vs  Celtics |
(-9) |
 Lakers vs  Warriors |
(=4.5) |
 Nuggets vs  Suns |
(-1.5) |
Lines courtesy of DraftKings as of 12-24.
Expert NBA Christmas Day ATS picks
Spurs vs. Knicks: Spurs +9
The New York Knicks traded for Karl-Anthony Towns, knowing their defense would suffer, but it would unlock their offensive abilities. That’s exactly what’s happened. The Knicks are Top 10 in scoring while ranking second in both field goal percentage (50.1%) and 3-point shooting (39.9%).
New York is still sixth in defensive scoring and 10th in field goal shooting defense, but if it can’t get a stop, it can outscore those woes.
The Knicks should take care of business against the San Antonio Spurs, but San Antonio’s point differential on the season is -0.9.
Finally, in a prime-time game, Victor Wembanyama delivers a Christmas gift for the casual fan yet to jump on the Wemby train.
Timberwolves vs. Knicks: Mavericks -4.5
A rematch of last year’s West Final, only both teams are fundamentally different.
The Timberwolves are a mess, clinging to the final play-in spot in the conference. Anthony Edwards has already twice addressed how bad this team is playing, the most recent after a 133-107 whipping at the hands of the Knicks.
Defensively, they’re still fourth in points allowed, but the offense kept together by the departed Karl-Anthony Towns doesn’t work quite as well with Julius Randle. They’re in the bottom half of the league in scoring and field goal shooting.
Dallas, meanwhile, is in the Top $ of the West, with a Top-5 offensive rating and a Top-10 defensive rating.
Klay Thompson is shooting nearly 40% from three, Luka Doncic is all-world, and Kyrie Irving is a supercharged second option. Dallas already beat Minny 120-114 earlier this season, and it should roll again.
76ers vs. Celtics: Celtics -9
There might not be a team as disappointing in the league right now as the 76ers. They are currently 12th in the Eastern Conference, 1.5 games behind the final play-in.
You can still count the number of games Joel Embiid has played on two hands, and Paul George won’t hit 20 games played by Christmas, a big reason why Philly is the lowest-scoring team in the league, putting up just 105.7 points per game.
Boston is chugging right along, cruising in second in the East, and within earshot of the Cavaliers.
The C's have leaned into the analytics — the apparent poster child for the NBA’s ratings decline — by attempting 51 3-pointers per game. That’s the most in NBA history, and no team is even attempting 44 per contest.
Coupled with a Top-8 defensive rating, Boston should rip the visitors.
Lakers vs. Warriors: Warriors -4.5
These teams are caught in a mammoth traffic jam in the West, where 3.5 games separate the fourth-place Mavericks from the 11th-place Suns.
The Lakers have improved defensively but still rank in the bottom half of the league, allowing 113.7 points per game. Golden State is just outside the Top 10, at 110.8.
LeBron James is the Christmas Day career leader in points (476) and games played (18) and the co-leader in victories (10) with Dwyane Wade, but it’s Anthony Davis who needs to be the main character in this story.
Golden State has won three straight in this head-to-head, two of those as betting favorites. It's also scored at least 128 points in each of the last four meetings with L.A.
Nuggets vs. Suns: Nuggets -1.5
The slate wraps from the Valley of the Sun, as the Nuggets are in Phoenix. The Suns have won the past two head-to-head matchups, both as underdogs.
However, the Suns have yet to see this version of Nikola Jokic this season, who is setting the league on fire, averaging 31 points on 56.4% shooting while pulling down 13 rebounds and doling out 9.8 assists per game.
He also happens to lead the league in 3-point shooting at an incredible 50% clip.
Jokic should feast on Jusuf Nurkic and Mason Plumlee. Like most teams facing Jokic, the Suns won’t have an answer.
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