The NBA playoffs begin this Saturday and we've got four games on the NBA betting board. With plenty of All-Stars set to take the court, we've got lots of NBA player prop bets to dig into.
Today we're fading Grizzlies superstar Ja Morant on a lofty total, backing James Harden to continue dropping dimes, and expecting a strong performance from a high-flier who might be hiding in the shadows of the MVP favorite.
Here are our best free NBA player prop picks for Saturday, April 16.
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NBA player props for April 16
Picks made on 4/16/2022 at 11 a.m. ET.
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
Limiting Ja
Oddsmakers are expecting a shootout when the Timberwolves square off against the Grizzlies, with the Over/Under currently sitting at 236.5. The player with the highest O/U in points is Memphis point guard Ja Morant, with a total of 28.5.
Morant had an incredible regular season, leading the team with 27.4 points per game but there are plenty of reasons to like the Under in this spot.
Playoff games, in general, tend to see a slower pace than the free-flowing regular season so the full game total might be a tad inflated which will have a domino effect on all the player prop totals as well. Keep in mind that we saw a much more methodical tempo from Minnesota in their play-in game where they limited the Clippers to 104 points.
While the Wolves finished the regular season 24th in the league in scoring defense (113.3 ppg allowed), they were much better at defending inside the paint where they ranked 11th with 46.1 ppg allowed. Morant does most of his damage at the rim and actually became the first guard to lead the NBA in ppg in the paint since the NBA started tracking that stat in 1997.
In recent games, Pat Beverly and the Wolves have also done a terrific job of defending Morant, holding him to 20 points or less in the last three meetings while shooting just 30% from the field.
Another factor to consider: Dillon Brooks missed most of the regular season with injuries but is now back to full strength which means that Ja doesn't need to look for his own shot quite as much and can look to facilitate more.
Pick: Ja Morant Under 28.5 points (-110)
Double-digit dimer
James Harden might not be feeling any pressure but the 76ers certainly are as they lock horns with the Raptors in the first round.
Harden's shooting has been as inconsistent as ever since coming over to Philly and he has shot a pathetic 34.2% from the field in his last six games. That said, he's been much more consistent when it comes to dropping dimes and has averaged 10.5 assists per game in 21 contests with the 76ers.
The Beard has racked up at least 13 assists in four of his last five games, which includes a 15-assist performance against the Raptors nine days ago. With Philadelphia not boasting the greatest depth, expect massive minutes for Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, and Tobias Harris, which should in turn lead to plenty of assists for Harden.
Pick: James Harden Over 10.5 assists (-105)
Every Batman needs a Robin
All eyes will be on NBA MVP favorite Nikola Jokic as he tries to lead Denver past the Warriors in the opening round, but if the Nuggets want to pull off the first-round upset they'll need some big performances from their supporting cast.
Jokic has been a one-man machine for Denver this season, carrying the team in the absence of Jamal Murray and Michael Porter, but one teammate has helped pick up the slack lately: Aaron Gordon.
Gordon has dropped at least 18 points in seven of his last eight games. Over that span, he has averaged 20 points and 7.6 rebounds per game.
With the Warriors likely focusing on containing Jokic, we like Gordon to go Over his points and rebounds total set at 22.5.
Pick: Aaron Gordon Over 22.5 points + rebounds (-120)
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