Today’s NBA Player Prop Picks: Ayton Makes Statement vs. Wizards

Thanks to postponements, we are down to just four games on the NBA schedule tonight, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t plenty of value in the NBA player prop betting market.

Today, we focus on a pair of big men with juicy matchups, and whether Patty Mills continues to be Kevin Durant’s partner in crime with the Nets expected to be shorthanded for a second straight game.

Check out our NBA prop picks for Thursday, December 16, as we bank on some of the NBA's best to do their thing.

NBA player props for December 16

• Sabonis Over 30.5 Points + Rebouds (-120)
• Mills Over 3.5 Made Threes (-120)
• Ayton Over 19.5 Points (-105)

Picks made on 12/16/2021 at 11:35 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best NBA player props

Domination nation

It sounds like the Indiana Pacers have a rebuild in mind and are looking to unload all their best pieces. That includes Domantas Sabonis and the Pacers’ center seems to be doing everything he can to up his trade value.

In the month of December, Sabonis is averaging 20 points while shooting 62.9 percent from the floor while hauling down 13.5 rebounds over 10 games. Now, he’ll get a chance to keep rolling against a Detroit Pistons team that knows all about rebuilding. 

The Pistons have dropped 12 straight games and will have many issues they’ll need to address in the offseason. But there are a few places they really struggle.

For starters, the Pistons are arguably the worst rebounding team in the NBA. They rank dead last in rebounding percentage and 25th in opponent rebounds per game. They also aren’t the best at getting hands in shooter's faces. The Pistons rank dead last in opponent field goal percentage while ranking 17th in opponent points in the paint. 

This game sets up well for Sabonis. His points + rebounding total is on the board at 30.5, a number he has gone Over eight times in the last 10 games, with this one maybe being his juiciest matchup yet.

Pick: Domantas Sabonis Over 30.5 Points + Rebounds (-120 at DraftKings)

Shoot to Mills

The Brooklyn Nets, like many other teams in pro sports at the moment, are suffering from a COVID outbreak. Despite being down to basically Kevin Durant and a bunch of dudes, the Nets managed to survive against the Toronto Raptors, outlasting them 131-129 in overtime.

It sounds like the Nets will be shorthanded once again for tonight’s matchup against Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers. And it appears that the Sixers have hit another rough patch, dropping three of their last four games. 

But one place Philly has struggled all season has been defending the perimeter, where they rank 21st in the NBA in opponent 3-point percentage. 

Now, it’s a little unfair to say KD is completely on his own, as shooting guard Patty Mills stepped up in a big way on Tuesday, going a ridiculous 7-14 from deep against the Raptors, ending up with 30 points. 

But this isn’t a new thing for Mills. The Nets’ shooting guard has been jacking up 8.9 threes per game over his last 15 games, hitting on a crazy-good 45.5 percent of his attempts. With Mills hitting four or more threes eight times over that 15-game stretch, the Over on his made threes in this matchup looks like good value.

Pick: Patty Mills Over 3.5 Made Threes (-120 at DraftKings)

Ayton in Full

The Phoenix Suns bounced back from their mini-slump (which, for them, is losing twice in four games) by taking down Dame Lillard and the Portland Trail Blazers in overtime on Tuesday night. They’ll try to start another winning streak when they welcome the Washington Wizards to town.

The Wizards have hit the skids after a hot start to the season, losing six of their last seven games, and now will be playing in the second half of a back-to-back against one of the best teams in the NBA.

Washington has played much better on the defensive end of the floor this season under new head coach Wes Unseld, but one place they have struggled is on the inside. The Wizards allow the second-most points in the paint per game in the NBA and now must deal with Deandre Ayton.

The Suns center is averaging 16.9 points per game for the year, but he has picked up his play lately bumping that average up to 21.2 over his last five games.

Expect Ayton to lean on Wizards early and get those already-tired legs feeling even heavier, and bet the Over on his point total in this one.

Pick: Deandre Ayton Over 19.5 Points (-105 at FanDuel)

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