We tip off the first full week back to action after the NBA All-Star break with seven games on the schedule for hungry NBA player prop bettors to dig into.
Today, we take a look at a Khris Middleton prop, as the Bucks’ sharpshooter might have turned the corner on his (relative) shooting woes. While tough defense and play of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander have made the Thunder a tough out of late. Can the Kings slow him down?
Check out our NBA player prop picks for Monday, February 28, as we bank on some of the NBA's best to do their thing.
NBA player props for February 28
Picks made on 2/28/2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
Duncan's buckets
Miami Heat shooting guard Duncan Robinson averages 11.3 points per game this season. But the sharpshooter definitely seems to have an all-or-nothing output this season. We’re hoping he’s leaning towards the “all” side for tonight’s matchup against the Chicago Bulls.
Robinson’s last 10 games are a perfect example of his up-and-down nature. Here are his point totals over that stretch: 5, 17, 3, 12, 10, 17, 5, 21, 0, 6. So, what makes me think he’ll have an up performance tonight.
Well, for starters, the matchup with the Bulls. While DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine are having outstanding offensive seasons for the Bulls, the effort only appears to be at that end of the floor. The Bulls rank dead last in the NBA when it comes to points per game allowed to opposing guards while ranking 26th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage and Robinson has taken advantage.
In two matchups against the Bulls, this season has put up 16 and 26 points. On top of that, Heat starting point guard Kyle Lowry will miss this game due to personal reasons, which could mean more of a run for Robinson. Bet the “all.”
Pick: Duncan Robinson Over 10.5 points (-110)
Khris cooks Charlotte
Milwaukee Bucks sharpshooter Khris Middleton is having a down year when it comes to his 3-point shooting, at least by his standards. But he’ll have a great chance to find his shooting stroke when the Bucks host the Charlotte Hornets Monday night.
The Hornets’ inability to play decent defense continues to haunt them. After a big win over the Toronto Raptors coming out of the All-Star break, they followed it up with a loss to the Detroit Pistons as 10-point favorites, allowing one of the worst offenses in the NBA to put of 116 points in regulation.
The Hornets' real problems are on the perimeter. Charlotte allows the second most 3-point attempts per game while ranking 21st in opponent 3-point shooting percentage. So, this is exactly the matchup Middleton can take advantage of.
Middleton is a career 39.6% shooter from beyond the arc but that is down to 36% this season. But maybe the All-Star break was just what he needed to get back on track. In his first game out of the break, he went 3-5 from deep against the Spurs.
Middleton has also been a problem for the Hornets all season. In three games against them, he has gone 11-21 from three (52.4%), making at least three attempts from deep in each of those games. That means we’ll happily take the plus money for him to go Over 2.5 made threes in this one.
Pick: Khris Middleton Over 2.5 made threes (+110)
Canada's finest
Scrappy defense and the play of guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander have made the Oklahoma City Thunder a surprisingly solid team to back this season. But Gilgeous-Alexander has taken his game to the next level and he’ll look to keep that up when OKC visits the Sacramento Kings.
The long and athletic guard is scoring 27.3 points per game over his last 11 games, shooting 49.8% from the floor. Now, SGA faces a Kings team that continues to struggle at the defensive end of the floor.
Sacramento ranks second-to-last in both defensive rating and scoring defense while allowing the most points in the paint per game in the NBA which is where the Thunder guard does a good deal of his best work. The Kings have also had issues with opposing guards since the trade deadline, ranking 23rd in opponent guard scoring since Feb. 10.
With SGA putting up 29 or more points eight times over this 11-game stretch, it’s hard to envision the Kings will be the team to slow him down.
Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 27.5 points (-105)
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