Best NBA Player Props Today: Duren Lends a Helping Hand

Prop bet #1: Easy night out

Giannis and the Milwaukee Bucks recently played against the Detroit Pistons on Saturday. While the Greek Freak was just one assist away from recording a triple-double, I think it's important not to be blinded by this stat line when looking at Giannis Antetokounmpo's odds tonight.

For starters, Saturday's game between the Pistons and Bucks was highly competitive, with Detroit leading for the majority of the game.

This led Antetokounmpo to play 38 minutes where he was actively involved in the offense. With Milwaukee trading as a 12.5-point favorite on Monday and having already been caught off guard once by the Pistons on Saturday, there's no guarantee Giannis will see the same workload.

Not only are we on blowout watch — which could decrease Antetokounmpo's minutes — but in the second half against the Pistons on Saturday, the Bucks were able to get Giannis going downhill against Mike Muscala and Danilo Gallinari. And guess what? He wasn't passing.

Milwaukee was able to expose Detroit's interior defense and rotations because it lacks help defenders who can meet Antetokounmpo at the rim after he explodes by Jalen Duren or Muscala off the bounce, or in the pick and roll as the ball handler.

Giannis is projected to have 6.6 assists on Monday against the Pistons, allowing us to price the Under 6.5 assists at -103, but it's available at DraftKings at +135. While the projection of 6.6 assists isn't significantly below the total by any means, it's the +135 price point that offers us a nice edge on the Under.

Giannis Antetokounmpo prop: Under 6.5 assists (+135 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Total too high

Vince Williams odds? It's like an episode of "Who He Play For" with Charles Barkley for this analysis. Williams is a second-year guard for the Memphis Grizzlies out of VCU, and he recently signed an extension with the team. Williams has been thrust into a much larger role with the Grizzlies in the absence of Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, and Marcus Smart, but I think his total might be a little too high on Monday.

Since Williams has started seeing increased minutes for Memphis, his assists total has moved from 1.5 to 4.5, which is a significant shift. I considered betting the Under on his total when the Grizz played against the Timberwolves on January 18, but I didn't mind that matchup for Williams, and the total was trading at 3.5. However, a total of 4.5 against the Raptors is a whole different story.

Against Minnesota, it was going to be challenging for Luke Kennard and Jacob Gilyard to create offense for the Grizzlies because the Timberwolves have considerable positional size and one of the best defenses in the NBA. That won't be the case against the Raptors on Monday, who rank 26th in team defensive rating over their last ten games.

Everyone on Memphis should be able to create offense against Toronto, and I expect the assists to be more evenly distributed. Not only do I anticipate the playmaking to be more spread out against the Raptors, but Williams could potentially be without his main threat in the dunker's spot for potential assists — Xavier Tillman. Tillman missed Saturday's game with knee soreness and is questionable for Monday.

Williams is projected to have four assists tonight — allowing us to price the Under 4.5 assists at -174 — but it's available at BetMGM for -125.

Vince Williams prop: Under 4.5 assists (-125 at BetMGM)

Prop bet #3: Duren diming

If you've been following along with my assists prop bets over the last several months, you would know there's a common theme I target against the Bucks — but only if I have the right player and a solid price available on the Over. On Monday, Jalen Duren's odds represents both of those, with the Over 2.5 assists trading at +140 at bet365.

Milwaukee is vulnerable to assists from the center position, and it's been a recurring theme all year. It makes sense when you think about it from a basketball perspective. The Bucks have rim protectors in Brook Lopez and Antetokounmpo, which results in opposing bigs being used more as a hub than attacking them one-on-one at the rim.

If Milwaukee didn't play the Pistons on Saturday, I'd have more doubt about this bet because Duren isn't a jump shooter who can pull Lopez away from the rim, opening up opportunities for assists to cutters. 

However, Duren is a much better passer than he gets credit for, and while he only had one assist on Saturday against the Bucks, he had seven potential assists. This statistic pops off the page, especially when you see the Over 2.5 trading at +140.

For perspective, in the three games prior to Saturday's game against Milwaukee, Duren went Over the total of 2.5 assists in each outing and averaged 4.7 potential assists per game. The opportunities were there for Duren on Saturday: the potential assists just didn't convert for him. Lucky for us, that's why we can snag a +140 on Monday.

Duren is projected to have 2.6 assists against the Bucks, which isn't quite the three we need for a green checkmark, but it's the +140 price point that is the key to this wager. Based on this projection, we can price Duren at +116 to go Over the total of 2.5 assists.

Jalen Duren prop: Over 2.5 assists (+140 at bet365)