Best NBA Player Props Today: Bey Showcases Shooting Strengths

Prop bet #1: Back to reality

Donovan Mitchell has been on a hot streak with his assists prop lately, clearing the total in four straight games and dropping 13 dimes in his most recent outing against the Orlando Magic. While Mitchell has hit the Over in four straight, he would only be 2-2 to the over in his last four games against a total of 7.5, and I think we can leverage a matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks against his elevated total, thanks to the 13 dimes against the Magic.

The 13 assists that Mitchell had against the Magic might discourage you from playing the Under tonight, but he accomplished this on only 15 potential assists. That is a crazy high conversion rate, and the Bucks present a matchup that can bring that back down to earth. 

The strength of the Bucks' defense is their interior, so the passes to Jarrett Allen won't be as easily converted at the rim, and I'm also pretty sure that Sam Merrill won't knock down every three-pointer that Mitchell passes to him, as he did against the Magic.

By the way, did the Bucks make any news on Tuesday? If the Bucks came together to have Adrian Griffin dismissed and the front office listened, you better believe they will have some defensive energy on Wednesday night. 

Mitchell is projected to drop 7.3 dimes against Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks, which means we can price the Under 7.5 assists at -121, but it is available at bet365 at +110.

Donovan Mitchell prop: Under 7.5 assists (+110 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Back to the well

We played Vince Williams Under the total of 4.5 assists at -120 on Monday, and while the number has dropped to 3.5, there is still an edge we can exploit thanks to the +124 price point available at DraftKings. 

After what I saw against the Toronto Raptors on Monday, Williams isn't going to be a one-and-done bet. We can ride this prop back down until it is properly adjusted to represent Williams' ever-changing role in the Memphis Grizzlies' offense. 

When Desmond Bane went out and the Grizzlies' backcourt was depleted, Williams took advantage and raised his assists total from 1.5 to 4.5. However, the starting lineup Williams had three straight Overs with to increase his total isn't the same starting lineup he is playing with now. 

John Konchar is back in the starting lineup, pushing Williams off the ball more and making him a stand-in-the-corner type of guy. Not to mention that the Grizzlies are evolving Jaren Jackson Jr.'s role in the offense as well. Jackson is handling the ball more and running the offense. 

Williams led the Grizzlies in minutes against the Raptors and only had two potential assists. His role is constantly changing, and the sportsbooks are having a difficult time keeping up. 

Williams is projected to have 3.6 assists on Wednesday against the Heat, which allows us to price the Under 3.5 assists at -114. Based on this projection, this bet shows a positive expected value of 19%.

Vince Williams prop: Under 3.5 assists (+124 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Back up top

Five straight Unders for Saddiq Bey has dropped his total from 15.5 to 13.5. However, with Trae Young still out due to concussion protocol, the Atlanta Hawks are going to need Bey's offense tonight.

One of the main reasons I like the Over on Bey's points prop is I am confident he will see 35-plus minutes against the Golden State Warriors. With De'Andre Hunter and Young both injured, the Hawks only have so many options.

It's also a bonus for Bey that the strength of the Warriors offense lies in the backcourt of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, which will help limit how much the Warriors can expose Bey's defense. This should allow Quinn Snyder to keep Bey on the floor for elevated minutes and help him space the floor for Dejounte Murray, who will be the focal point of the offense.

Not only should Bey be the beneficiary of Murray collapsing the defense and drawing a ton of attention, but the Hawks have also put Bey on the trade block. Therefore, they will want to showcase his shooting, and he is probably motivated to shoot his way out of Atlanta. The minutes, the field goal attempts, everything is there for Bey. He just has to make the shots.

Bey is projected to score 15.9 points, allowing us to price the Over 13.5 points at -171 to go over the total of 13.5. However, it is available at Caesars at -125.

Saddiq Bey prop: Over 13.5 points (-125 at Caesars)