Best NBA Player Props Today: VanVleet Puts Rockets on His Back

Prop bet #1: Curious George

You can't just blindly fade George's props because he's on somewhat of a minutes restriction in his most recent games for the Los Angeles Clippers; the sportsbooks know this as well. This minutes restriction has been accounted for in the line and has driven his total down from 24.5 to 20.5.

At 20.5, and against the Washington Wizards, I believe we have an edge here with the Over.

The Wizards lineup is loaded with below-average defenders; it's why they're one of the worst teams in the NBA. Deni Avdija is the best defender in the starting lineup, but the Wizards should use him on Kawhi Leonard. This leaves Jordan Poole or Kyle Kuzma to guard George. I think you can see where I'm going with this; George will have an advantage all night in his matchup, and the Clippers could even run actions to get the smaller Tyus Jones on George. The Wizards aren't going to be able to stop George from getting to his spots; their focus will have to be on Leonard.

The scary part about playing an Over on Paul George odds is that the Clippers are a 12.5-point favorite, and a blowout could lead to reduced minutes for George. This is where I think the minutes restriction actually plays into your favor because we're projecting George as if he is playing fewer minutes than normal already. If you're expecting Leonard to play 36 and he only plays 28, that would be devastating for his props, but that isn't an issue for George. I think we have an edge over the 20.5 while expecting George to only play 28 minutes.

George is projected to score 22.8 points against the Wizards on Wednesday, allowing us to price the Over 20.5 points at -151.

Paul George prop: Over 20.5 points (-114 at Caesars)

Prop bet #2: Beasley buckets

Malik Beasley odds cost me a unit last week when he nearly went an entire game without attempting a shot. However, in sports betting, you can't live in fear, and I believe we have an edge on his points prop once again on Wednesday.

For Beasley, I love the fact that we can get this total at 8.5 points. When I attacked it last week, Beasley was trading at 9.5, and while it may seem insignificant, for a dead-eye 3-point shooter like Beasley, it at least opens the door to three made triples pushing us over the total.

Another encouraging sign for Beasley is that in his first game with Doc Rivers as the head coach, Beasley played 31 minutes against the Denver Nuggets. This is almost two minutes more than his season average. You never know how minutes might change under a new head coach, so this is an encouraging sign for Beasley, who led the Bucks in plus-minus against the Nuggets.

Beasley is projected to score 10.7 points on Wednesday against the Trail Blazers, allowing us to price the over 8.5 points at -174, but it is trading at -125 at DraftKings. Based on this projection, this bet is showing a positive expected value of 14%.

Malik Beasley prop: Over 8.5 points (-125 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Right said Fred

In his game on Monday against the Los Angeles Lakers, VanVleet was so busy dropping dimes and setting up his teammates that he forgot to score. VanVleet picked apart the Lakers' defense for 14 assists, but only scored three points. Combine that performance with some recent Unders, and we're seeing VanVleet trade with a total of 14.5 points, creating a probability gap in the odds for us to attack.

Against the Lakers' defense, everyone on the Houston Rockets was able to score. The Lakers' defense is in a really bad way right now, as evidenced on Tuesday night against the Atlanta Hawks.

The thing is, the Rockets won't be playing the Lakers on Wednesday; they will be playing a much more difficult opponent in the New Orleans Pelicans. Against better defenses, you lean more on your star players, so expect a ton of two-man game between VanVleet and Alperen Sengun against the Pelicans.

This is also a divisional game for the Rockets, and they can win the season series over the Pelicans with a victory. Ime Udoka has shown all season that he isn't afraid to push VanVleet's minutes into the 40s on any given night, and there's a strong possibility that given the increased stakes personally to the Rockets here, this could be one of those nights.

He's projected to score 16.9 points on Wednesday against the Pelicans, which allows us to price the Over 14.5 points at -168, meaning these Fred VanVleet odds are showing a positive expected value of 22%.

Fred VanVleet prop: Over 14.5 points (-105 at BetMGM)