Best NBA Player Props Today: Wemby Continues Defensive Tour de Force

Prop bet #1: Victor's return

The Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs play for the second time in three days today, and while Steph Curry remains sidelined with his ankle injury, Victor Wembanyama is expected to suit up.

As we just saw when the Spurs upset Golden State on Saturday, this is quite likely to be a competitive game with Steph out. I’m expecting a big defensive playmaking game from Wemby, in part because of Steph’s absence. 

Curry and Klay Thompson being two of the five greatest shooters who have ever lived masks what is otherwise a Warriors team fairly thin on shooting. It’s their gravity that allows the rest of the Warriors to attack the paint with a spaced floor.

Draymond Green, Kevon Looney, Chris Paul, Jonathan Kuminga, and Gary Payton II are all players with limited or no credibility on the outside. That means the Warriors are going to have to venture inside the paint more than they’d like, with weak spacing and Wemby an ever-present threat to disrupt the action.

Wemby is averaging 5.1 blocks and 1.9 steals over his last 10 games, for an even seven per game in that span. He’s also had at least five blocks in six of his last seven, which is patently absurd.

These Victor Wembanyama odds are not accounting for his ability to gum up the works for a Warriors offense missing their most important outside threat.

Victor Wembanyama prop: Over 5.5 steals + blocks (-135 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Muted Micic

The Charlotte Hornets overhauled their roster at the trade deadline, essentially taking in every Thunder player who couldn’t crack the Top 10 of Mark Daigneault’s rotation. One player who has been making the most of his newfound opportunity is former two-time EuroLeague MVP Vasilije Micic.

The Serbian point guard has brought some much-needed stability to the injury-depleted Hornets backcourt as their temporary starter.

However, oddsmakers are getting a bit over their skis with these Vasilije Micic odds. Micic has played well as a Hornet but he’s still averaging just 5.8 assists over his last 10 and has only had eight or more twice in that time.

Of course, the reasoning goes that because the Detroit Pistons are terrible, it will be easy for Micic to rack up assists, but I’m not so sure that thinking holds water.

For one thing, assists require teammates to hit open shots and the Hornets have shot abysmally since the beginning of March.

Detroit also has strong and long perimeter defenders like Ausar Thompson who can make otherwise promising passing windows vanish. The Pistons' defense has been respectably bad of late, rather than historically terrible like they were much of the year.

Vasilije Micic prop: Under 7.5 assists (-110 at SIA)

Prop bet #3: Cashing in on Cunningham

A couple of days ago, I backed a play on Cade Cunningham to hit 2+ threes against the Mavericks and he promptly rewarded me by hitting three. I'm a firm believer that the long-awaited Cade shooting leap is finally here, and I’m going to take advantage of it as long as oddsmakers allow.

Cade’s shooting improvement has taken center stage, but his scoring is just better from everywhere. He’s taking about two more free throws per game than he was to begin the season and in March, he’s hitting them at a stunning 96.3% clip. 

He’s doing a great job working off screens, getting better shots, and attacking off the catch once Jaden Ivey has already put the defense in rotation. His improvement is a perfect storm of skill development, more judicious shot selection, and a better offensive environment.

While the Cade Cunningham odds for his 3-point shooting aren’t as favorable as they were this weekend, his points prop being at just 22.5 makes for a strong value bet. 

Cade is averaging 24.5 points over his last 10 games and has scored 23+ in seven of those games. A few of his recent down games were blowouts where Cade didn’t have a chance to take that many shots. As I suspect this game against the Hornets will be competitive, I strongly favor this Over.

Cade Cunningham prop: Over 22.5 points (-115 at bet365)