Today’s NBA Player Prop Picks: Collins Thrives in Favorable Defensive Matchup

The eyes of the basketball betting world may be elsewhere this Sunday, but while the college kids figure out their travel plans, the NBA season marches on.

Sunday’s pro slate has six games to choose from and countless NBA odds to wager on. I sort out those options with my best NBA player prop picks for March 12 below.

NBA player props for March 12

• Collins Over 1.5 blocks + steals (-130)
• Finney-Smith Over 1.5 made threes (+120)
• Embiid Under 10.5 rebounds (-140)

Picks made on 3/12/2023 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best NBA player props

The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.

Spur of the moment

San Antonio Spurs center Zach Collins is having a rough weekend.

He got dunked on by Denver forward Michael Porter Jr. on Friday night and after some light taunting from MPJ, Collins went after Porter and was ejected following a brief dust-up between the two. Collins was then trolled on social media, most notably by Atlanta guard Trae Young.

Collins will be tested at the rim plenty when the Spurs host the Oklahoma City Thunder this afternoon. The Thunder own the highest drive rate in the league and average the third-highest amount of points in the paint per game. That’s led OKC to get stuffed 5.6 times per outing.

Collins’ block total for Sunday is 0.5 O/U but the Over is sitting as high as -200. However, you can get his combo prop of blocks + steal at 1.5 with the Over as low as -130.

Implied probability says Collins has a 66% chance of recording at least one swat, which is something he did in the four games prior to getting the hook against Denver after only 21 minutes. And he blocked two shots in two of those four games.

Collins also has quick hands on defense. Since taking over as San Antonio’s starting center following the Jakob Poeltl trade to Toronto, he’s averaging 1.3 steals and has recorded at least one steal in eight of those 10 games.

Given the matchup around the rim and his recent awareness, we like the variety the combo prop offers for the Spurs center on Sunday afternoon.

Zach Collins prop: Over 1.5 blocks + steals (-130)

Nothing but Nets

Since coming over to the Brooklyn Nets in the Kyrie Irving deal, Dorian Finney-Smith has had trouble finding his 3-point touch.

Finney-Smith is attempting about the same number of triples per game as he was with the Mavericks (around five per contest), but he’s making just 23.4% of those long-range looks compared to 35.5% from deep in Dallas.

Part of the problem is the Nets’ road-heavy schedule since acquiring DFS with eight of the team’s last 13 contests away from home and another road stop in Denver tonight, but the biggest issue is the constant mixing and matching of lineups and looks, which hasn’t given Finney-Smith the same spacing he flourished in within the Mavs’ stretch-five offense.

However, Brooklyn head coach Jacque Vaughn dabbled with a smaller lineup similar to Dallas’ attack in Friday’s win over Minnesota and not only got rave reviews from his team but also jump-started Finney-Smith from beyond the arc with two triples (2-for-5), including a huge shot in overtime.

Finney-Smith is a more-than-capable perimeter threat but his 3-point total for tonight is 1.5 with the Over paying our +120. It’s a number that’s tempered due to dwindling floor time in recent outings.

Before the overtime affair with Minnesota in which he played 37 minutes, he logged only 11 minutes in a weird bench-hefty rotation against Milwaukee and was limited to just 26 minutes in a Brooklyn blowout of Houston. In the two games prior to that span, Finney-Smith logged 33 and 38 minutes – the latter of which included a 5-for-11 shooting night from beyond the arc at Boston.

Sunday’s date with the Denver Nuggets has a higher total of 232.5 points with the Nuggets set as 9-point home chalk, with the game script calling for plenty of points and Brooklyn battling from behind: a good spot for 3-point attempts.

I expect Vaughn to go small again at times and find Finney-Smith on those dribble-drive kick-outs to the wing shooter.

Dorian Finney-Smith prop: Over 1.5 made threes (+120)

Back off the boards

Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid is making MVP voters think long and hard about their decision with his recent efforts. Embiid is putting up a monster March, averaging more than 37 points over his five games this month.

With Embiid stepping up his scoring efficiency in March, his rebounding rate has taken a bit of a dive. After averaging close to 10 boards per game on the season, Embiid has snatched only 6.6 rebounds per outing this month with a high of eight boards.

Yet, bookies are still hanging double-figure rebounding totals for the Sixers’ star. Embiid has gone Under his rebound prop in five straight games and while some shops are dipping this O/U to 9.5, the majority of books are still at 10.5 boards with the Under priced at -140.

Sunday’s matchup with the Washington Wizards not only puts Philadelphia against one of the better rebounding teams in the Association (Washington ranks No. 6 in rebound rate) but Embiid’s primary matchup is the versatile Kristaps Porzingis.

The Wizards’ 7-footer is not a traditional “back to the basket” center and likes to play on the perimeter, dragging Embiid away from prime rebound range. Embiid had 10 rebounds in the last meeting with Washington back in January, during a stretch of games in which Embiid was very active on the glass.

The spread is calling for a comfortable win for Philadelphia, with the home team laying as much as eight points. The Wizards are stumbling heading into this game with just one win in their last five contests. There’s a good shot Philly gets up and opens a window for the starters to take a seat after playing major minutes in the thrilling comeback against Portland on Friday.

I’ll pay a little extra to get on the high side of Embiid’s rebound prop and hope he pulls down 10 or fewer boards tonight.

Joel Embiid prop: Under 10.5 rebounds (-140) 

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