Today’s NBA Player Prop Picks: McCollum and Markkanen Have a Points Party

It’s a lighter night of NBA action with just five games on the board but that doesn’t mean there isn’t plenty of basketball betting value to be found in the player prop market.

Tonight, we look at an intriguing point total for CJ McCollum as he’s set to take on a Bulls team that struggles to contain opposing guards, and do we dare fade a Nikola Jokic prop when the Nuggets host the Suns?

Check out our NBA player prop picks for Thursday, March 24, as we bank on some of the NBA's best to do their thing.

NBA player props for March 24

• Markkanen Over 2.5 made 3s (+140)
• McCollum Over 24.5 pts (-125)
• Jokic Under 8.5 asts (-105)

Picks made on 3/24/2022 at 12:57 p.m. ET.
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best NBA player props

Lauri Marksman

It feels like everyone and their moms are on Evan Mobley to have a big game when the Cleveland Cavaliers face off against the Toronto Raptors tonight in a matchup that has a ton of seeding implications in the Eastern Conference.

And I get it. Mobley’s numbers are way up since Jarrett Allen suffered a broken finger against this same Raptors team just a few weeks ago, but it feels like we are losing some value there. Today we’re looking elsewhere, and that’s in the direction of Lauri Markkanen’s made threes prop.

Markkanen is another Cavs player who has taken advantage of his added opportunity with Allen sidelined. The Cavs’ stretch-four is averaging 18.1 points per game in the eight games since Allen got hurt, well up from his season average of 14.4.

Simply put, Markkanen hasn’t been afraid to let it fly from deep. He has taken 7.6 threes per game compared to the 5.9 he was taking when sharing the floor with Allen and is hitting them at a 37.7% clip.

In that same stretch, he has hit three or more threes four times, including hitting four against the Raptors back on March 6.

Now, Toronto does play some great defense but its aggressive style is full of switches and double teams which can leave players alone in the corners for open threes at times. As a result, the Raps rank 19th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.

This means the plus money we are getting on this prop is a little ridiculous. Bet on The Finnisher to keep letting it fly in this one.

Pick: Lauri Markkanen Over 2.5 made threes (+140)

Buckets upon buckets

Zion who? CJ McCollum is doing his best to make the New Orleans Pelicans forget it is another wasted year for their former No. 1 pick. McCollum has excelled with his new team and the Pels have even climbed into one of the Western Conference play-in spots. He’ll look to stay hot when he and the Pelicans host the Chicago Bulls.

McCollum has been everything the Pels could have hoped for since coming over from the Portland Trail Blazers.  In his first 16 games with NOLA, he is averaging 26.1 points while shooting 50.6% from the floor, which includes 39.3% from 3-point range. Expect him to be able to stay hot against the Bulls.

Chicago has not played well since the All-Star break, going just 4-9 straight up and 3-10 against the spread. Even though the Bulls are getting great performances from DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine, those performances seem to be focused on the offensive end of the floor, as they struggle to contain opposing guards.

Chicago allows the most point per game to opposing guards in the NBA at 81.9 per contest, five more points than the next closest team. It also ranks 24th and 25th respectively when it comes to opposing guards' field goal and 3-point percentage.

With McCollum eclipsing this point total in eight of his 16 games with the Pelicans this looks like a matchup he can take advantage of and go Over once again.

Pick: CJ McCollum Over 24.5 points (-125)

Joker out of change

Now, I don’t make it a habit to fade Nikola Jokic props on the regular since the guy is making a strong case to repeat as the NBA’s MVP and can stuff the stat sheet better than anyone. 

But every now and then, that success can lead to some numbers we can take advantage of and that appears to be the case when Jokic and the Denver Nuggets host the Western Conference-leading Phoenix Suns.

The Joker has been a force since the All-Star break, averaging 26.7 points, 12.9 rebounds, and 8.3 assists per game over those 14 games. That said, his assist total of 8.5 might be a touch too high in this matchup against the Suns.

For starters, Jokic is averaging 7.1 assists per game over his last eight games, and the only time he would have gone Over 8.5 in that stretch was when he recorded nine dimes against the Warriors on March 10. 

Now, he faces the Suns, who are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. They rank third in defensive rating, second in opponent effective field goal percentage, and allow the second-fewest opponent assists per game.

And while the only other game Jokic played against the Suns was all the way back on opening night, they held him to just two assists in that contest. It doesn’t hurt that we’re getting close to even money here as well.

Pick: Nikola Jokic Under 8.5 assists (-105)

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