A new month and a new round of the NBA Playoffs start Sunday with two games on the board: Milwaukee at Boston and Golden State at Memphis.
As the conference semifinals tip off, bookies and bettors hyper-focus on the shorter schedule, which means the NBA betting odds are drum-tight with little margin for error. However, Game 1 scenarios are often ripe for value as teams feel each other out.
We dive into the potential strategies, adjustments and game plans, and give our favorite free NBA player prop picks for May 1.
NBA player props for May 1
Picks made on 5/1/2022 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Brook “Nopez”
The Milwaukee Bucks have a size advantage over the Boston Celtics inside, anchored by big man Brook Lopez.
He’ll have a busy series protecting the paint from the likes of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown while also clashing with Boston’s smaller frontcourt of Robert Williams III, Al Horford, and Daniel Theis – all standing 6-foot-9 or shorter.
Lopez, who averaged 1.2 blocks during a very abbreviated regular season (due to injury), showed off his shot-blocking prowess versus Chicago in Round 1. The 7-footer recorded eight total blocks in five games in Round 1, including two blocks in three of those contests, while playing shorter minutes due to the Bucks’ blowout wins. Expect Lopez to log 30-plus minutes of action at Boston in Game 1 today.
Lopez’s height and length will change plenty of shots and victimize some courtside popcorn or beer with at least two blocks in Game 1 Sunday.
Pick: Brook Lopez Over 1.5 blocks (+146)
Dray day
The Golden State Warriors’ star-studded lineup of scorers gets a lot of the spotlight, but everyone knows, this is Draymond Green’s team. The point forward is multiple sticks stirring multiple drinks for the Dubs, doing it and doing it well in almost every aspect of the game.
Green has an opportunity to set the tone for this second-round series against the Memphis Grizzlies today, especially with Memphis missing big man Steven Adams for at least Game 1. That leaves the Grizzlies’ young and inexperienced frontcourt at the mercy of one of the peskiest and most potent postseason players in NBA history.
Green is coming off one hell of a series versus Denver in Round 1, averaging 9.6 points, 7.4 assists, and 5.4 rebounds while also antagonizing NBA MVP Nikola Jokic on defense. His defensive duties aren’t as demanding versus Memphis, and he’ll be at the center of a slowed-down offensive approach for the Warriors in Round 2.
If the Grizzlies opt to take away the long-range looks, the offense will feed through Green in the high post and lead to plenty of assists from back screens and backdoor cuts beating overzealous defenders.
Adams’ absence trims Memphis’ beef on the boards and with Golden State protecting the paint, Green could wrangle his share of rebounds. Toss in some well-time pump fakes getting the best of over-eager shot swatter Jaren Jackson Jr. and Draymond will continue to stuff the stat sheet in Game 1.
Green’s combo prop for points/rebounds/assists is as high as 23.5 for Sunday, but you can find it a tick lower at books like bet365 and Caesars.
Pick: Draymond Green Over 22.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115)
Ain’t in the paint
The Warriors know keeping Ja Morant’s motor at a low idle is the best way to slow down the Grizzlies. That means playing protective with the basketball – no turnovers – as well as padding the paint and forcing the Memphis star to do damage from outside.
Golden State has two capable defenders that can share the one-on-one load with Morant in Andrew Wiggins and Gary Payton Jr. and with no real interior terrors or consistent outside threats from the Grizz, the Warriors’ weakside help can cheat off the ball to help clog up the key.
With the way the Dubs effectively score, the transmission could be shot in the Grizzlies’ transition and Memphis will find itself in a halfcourt set more than it would like. That means Taylor Jenkins has to cook up off-the-ball sets to get Morant space.
He enters Round 2 going a wretched 4-for-20 from 3-point range in the playoffs (18%) but is a much better shooter than that. Morant finished the regular season making more than 40% of his looks from long range at home for an average of 1.6 triples per contest inside FedExForum.
The Dubs will dare Morant to shoot from outside to start this series and he’ll oblige. It might not be pretty in the end, but he’ll have a good chance to go Over his modest 3-point make total tonight. The Over is sitting anywhere from EVEN money to as high as +114, so shop around.
Pick: Ja Morant Over 1.5 made threes (+114)
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