Two massive Game 5 matchups in the NBA Playoffs get us “over the hump” on Wednesday with the Milwaukee Bucks battling the Boston Celtics and the Golden State Warriors going in for the kill against the Memphis Grizzlies.
If you’re passing on the spreads and totals or just want to bet everything on the NBA board, we dive deep into these two contests, breaking down our best free NBA player prop picks for May 11.
NBA player props for May 11
Picks made on 5/11/2022 at 11:20 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Too good to be Jrue
Have the Milwaukee Bucks hit the wall?
The defending champs looked absolutely gassed in the final frame of Game 4 vs. the Boston Celtics, including veteran guard Jrue Holiday. His ice-cold 0-for-5 effort in the fourth quarter played a big part in Boston busting the Bucks open and tying this series at 2-2 with Game 5 back in Boston tonight.
Holiday’s offensive output has been all over the place this series, posting 25-point showings in Games 1 and 3 but mustering 19 and 16 points in the other two outings, including a 5-for-22 shooting performance on Monday.
In fact, Holiday has been very inefficient overall for Milwaukee. He’s shooting a collective 33.6% for the series but still taking 26% of the Bucks' total shots, including 24% of their 113 total 3-point attempts — connecting on just 8 of 27 triples. He’s also drawing plenty of checks from elite defensive stoppers Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown, which doesn’t help matters.
Defensively, Holiday has been sound and will continue to spend the bulk of his energy on that end of the floor. He’s logging significant minutes with 40 or more in each of the past three outings and the grind of last year’s title run is starting to show on the Bucks. Holiday may have to conserve whatever is left in those legs for defense and find spots to rest on offense.
Pick: Jrue Holiday Under 20.5 points (-110)
Greek on the glass
With Boston using forward Al Horford’s outside shooting touch to stretch the Bucks’ interior defenders, it pulls big man Brook Lopez away from the rim and out of rebounding position.
Milwaukee may have to go smaller more than it would like tonight if Horford stays hot, which means Giannis Antetokounmpo slides to center. The “Greek Freak” has the ability to cover a lot of ground on closeouts while also hustling back to the help side, and that should keep him active on the glass.
Antetokounmpo pulled down 18 rebounds in Game 4 and is averaging 13 for the series, which is pretty much where his rebounding total sits tonight.
If Lopez is dragged outside or the Bucks go small, Giannis needs to crash the glass hard to avoid any extra-chance buckets from Boston. Offensively, his lanky 6-foot-11 frame can wrangle rebounds for putbacks over a shorter Celtics frontcourt, which could still be missing center Robert Williams after the “Time Lord” sat Game 4 with knee soreness.
Most books are dealing Antetokounmpo’s rebounding total at 13.5 (Over is plus money) but you can still scoop Over 12.5 boards price at -132 at FanDuel.
Pick: Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 12.5 rebounds (-132)
MF'ers act like they forgot about Klay
The Warriors can wave bye-bye to the Grizzlies tonight and give themselves some much-needed downtime before the Western Conference finals. And with Memphis missing star guard Ja Morant and books giving the Grizz four points at home, a Golden State win is likely.
But the Dubs are a savvy bunch and know the young Grizzlies won’t just roll over without their stud scorer, as Klay Thompson informed the media. Thompson said Game 5 will be the “hardest one yet” and we like Klay to lead the way to the West finals for the Warriors.
Thompson’s offensive efforts have been hot and cold in this series, scoring 15 points or fewer in three of the four games, with a 21-point performance in Game 3 being the outlier. He’s shooting just 36% from the floor including a chilly 28% clip from beyond the arc.
But despite the downtick in production, books are still confident in Klay, setting his Game 5 prop total between 20.5 and 21.5 points. Thompson is still logging major minutes, playing 41, 35, and 38 in the past three games, and while his shooting stroke hasn’t been as smooth, he’s always a threat from deep (as evidenced by his Over/Under prop total of 3.5 triples made for Game 5).
Stephen Curry, Andrew Wiggins, and Jordan Poole also struggled from outside in Game 4 but were able to get inside the aggressive Memphis defense for interior makes. The Grizzlies may have to pad the paint a bit tonight and that can leave space for Thompson on kick-outs.
We're giving Klay the benefit of the doubt and putting faith in his killer instinct in a closeout game.
Pick: Klay Thompson Over 20.5 points (-115)
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