Two more NBA Playoffs series start in the conference semifinals Tuesday night with Philadelphia at Miami and Dallas visiting Phoenix.
Beating the NBA player props market get tougher and tougher the further we branch down the postseason bracket, as books and bettors hyper-focus on a handful of games. However, Game 1 scenarios leave the window for value open before teams feel each other out and adjust.
Here are our free NBA player prop picks for May 2’s action on the NBA hardwood.
NBA player props for May 2
Picks made on 5/2/2022 at 12:15 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
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The Philadelphia 76ers’ NBA title hopes took a shot with the loss of star center Joel Embiid for at least the first two games of their second-round series with the Miami Heat. Embiid is out with a broken face, which means the Sixers' frontcourt needs to pick up the slack.
All eyes swing to Tobias Harris, who has somewhat been in limbo since the team acquired James Harden in late February. With Harden at the helm, Harris’ normal inside attack was pushed to the perimeter in the halfcourt and left in the dust in transition with the 76ers ticking up the tempo.
However, with a glaring gap inside for Philadelphia in Game 1, it’s clear where the 76ers need Harris to shine. He’s had a subtle surge in the playoffs, averaging almost 18 points and hauling in 9.5 rebounds per game versus Toronto in Round 1.
Harris, who averaged fewer than seven boards during the regular season, has snatched double-digit rebounds in four of the past five games and will need to be big on the glass tonight. Miami isn’t a large team inside — save for active 6-foot-9 center Bam Adebayo — so Harris should be able to hold his own battling on the boards.
The Tennessee product has a rebounding Over/Under anywhere from 7.5 to 8.5, so shop around and get the lowest number possible.
Pick: Tobias Harris Over 7.5 Rebounds (-138)
Maxey-mum power outage
The loss of Embiid not only takes away the Sixers’ versatile offense but erases their primary interior defender, leaving Philadelphia to either go really small or march out 6-foot-9 forward Paul Reed at center. Either way, it’s not a great result.
Miami isn’t an offensive powerhouse by any means, but it runs an efficient system (54.2% effective field goal rate in Round 1) and is one of the most methodical attacks in the NBA, ranking third lowest in pace during the regular season.
That means the Heat are getting high-percentage looks, sucking the energy out of this game, and forcing Philly to start its possessions off the inbounds. The Sixers will be stuck in the mud. And that’s before facing Miami’s insano defensive pressure once they get over half.
No player benefits more from up-tempo play than speedster Tyrese Maxey, who ranks behind only Giannis Antetokounmpo in terms of transition offense in the NBA Playoffs. Maxey is averaging 21.3 points per game this postseason and 7.5 of those come in transition — 35% of his total output.
The Heat were sound against transition in the regular season and really put the clamps on the Atlanta Hawks’ pace-pushing style in Round 1, limiting them to 1.00 points per play in transition and a scoring frequency of just 46.7% in that five-game series victory.
Maxey did have a big game against Miami back on March 21, scoring 28 points on 9 of 15 shooting and doing so with Embiid and Harden sitting out. However, he'll share backcout touches with Harden (who will have the green light) tonight and the Heat will have him circled in film study with their aggressive switching on the perimeter padded even more considering they don’t have to worry about the Sixers’ size inside.
Pick: Tyrese Maxey Under 22.5 Points (-118)
Shook by Book
Devin Booker has enjoyed some extended downtime to rest the ailing hamstring that cost him three games in the Phoenix Suns’ opening-round matchup with New Orleans. Booker returned to action in Game 6, scoring just 13 points on 5 of 12 shooting, including a dismal 1-for-6 night from beyond the arc.
But given that break and the likeliness of Dallas padding the interior — taking away the Suns’ mid-range mojo, and offering open looks from long range — Booker will return to his shooting form that knocked down 11 of 19 triples in the opening two games versus the Pelicans. Or he’ll at least have plenty of chances to work off any rust.
Booker averages 2.7 makes from 3-point range on the season and upped that to 2.9 after the All-Star break. While he was a collective 6-for-20 from deep over three meetings with the Mavericks in the regular season, I expect him to have plenty of clean air in front of him tonight — especially if Suns center Deandre Ayton gets going and the Mavericks must collapse inside.
Booker has knocked down three or more triples in five of his last eight outings going back to the regular season and his Over 2.5 from deep is playing a pretty plus-money tonight.
Pick: Devin Booker Over 2.5 3-Pointers (+130)
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