Today’s NBA Player Prop Picks: Ayton Owns the Paint vs Mavs

There are two playoff games on the NBA betting board this Wednesday but there are still plenty of wagering options in the NBA player prop market.

Today, we're going big by putting our money on a pair of centers and also backing Spencer Dinwiddie to help Luka Doncic carry the burden for the Mavericks.  

Here are our best free NBA player prop picks for May 4.

NBA player props for May 4

• Adebayo Over 10.5 rebounds (+115)
• Ayton Over 19.5 points (-104)
• Dinwiddie Over 2.5 assists (-130)

Picks made on 5/4/2022 at 11:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best NBA player props

The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.

Bam Bam big down low

With Joel Embiid out of action in Game 1, the 76ers were forced to use a combination of DeAndre Jordan or Charles Bassey at center for about half the game. For the other half, they went with a small-ball lineup featuring Georges Niang, Paul Millsap, or Paul Reed and tried to force the Heat out of the paint. 

Either way, they got cleaned on the boards with Miami boasting a 47-37 edge on the glass. Despite sometimes matching up against a much smaller big, Heat center Bam Adebayo displayed his mobility and defensive versatility and grabbed 12 rebounds in 34 minutes. 

The 76ers finished the regular season just 23rd in the NBA in rebound rate despite having Embiid and his 11.7 rebounds per game and without him, they're going to get killed in that area. With the Over/Under on Bam's rebounds total set at 10.5, a number he has eclipsed in three of his last four games, we're grabbing the Over at plus money. 

Pick: Bam Adebayo Over 10.5 rebounds (+115)

Can't contain Ayton

Dallas coach Jason Kidd complimented Phoenix center DeAndre Ayton just before Game 1 but if you thought that respect would result in a game plan to shut him down, you were mistaken. Ayton dropped 25 points on 12-20 shooting in the Suns' Game 1 victory. That was a significant uptick in volume for Ayton, who averaged 12 field goal attempts and just under 30 minutes per game during the regular season but has seen those numbers tick up to 14.3 FGA and 34.7 mpg in the playoffs. 

Ayton also logged 36.4 mpg in 22 playoff games last season after averaging 30.7 mpg during the regular season, so it's apparent that Suns coach Monty Williams likes to use his big man more when the stakes are at their highest. 

The Mavs have terrific perimeter defense but they don't defend anywhere near as well inside. Dallas is allowing 47.1 ppg in the paint during the postseason, the fourth-worst number among all playoff teams.

During the regular season, the Mavs allowed the second-fewest overall points per game (104.7) but surrendered an identical 47.1 ppg in the paint, which ranked just 14th in the NBA. They also allowed 22.7 ppg on 58.2% shooting to opposing centers, the sixth-worst FG% in the league. 

With Dwight Powell and Maxi Kleber typically being used as bigs, the Mavs won't be able to contain the highly efficient Ayton, who had a whopping 63.4 FG% during the regular season. 

Pick: Deandre Ayton Over 19.5 points (-104)

Dinwiddie dishes 

The Mavs lost by seven points in Game 1 despite 45 points and eight assists from Luke Doncic. They're going to need Spencer Dinwiddie and Jalen Brunson to step up (like they did in Luka's absence in the beginning of the first round) if they want to make this series competitive.

In Game 1, Dinwiddie had just eight points in 30 minutes but he did chip in with four dimes and didn't turn the ball over once. 

The Mavs traded for Dinwiddie in February to add another ball-handler and shot-creator to their lineup and he has averaged 4.0 assists per game in 30 regular season and playoff games with his new team. Expect Dinwiddie to play a bigger role as a playmaker in this contest and take the Over 2.5 on his assists total. 

Pick: Spencer Dinwiddie Over 2.5 assists (-130)

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