After a night without any playoff basketball, a pair of games inhabit the NBA betting board this Friday as the 76ers and Mavericks head home looking to avoid a 3-0 deficit against the Heat and Suns.
Both Miami and Dallas need to make adjustments if they want to win these pivotal Game 3 matchups which is why we're looking to back James Harden and fade Dwight Powell in the NBA player prop market.
We're also betting on Bam Adebayo once again as we bring you our best free NBA player prop picks for May 6.
NBA player props for May 6
Picks made on 5/6/2022 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
If at first you don't succeed...
We were on the Over 10.5 rebounds for Bam Adebayo in Game 2, and while it didn't cash, we're going back to the well with what we think is a favorable matchup for the Miami big man.
Although 76ers superstar Joel Embiid just cleared concussion protocol he's still banged up with a torn thumb ligament and broken orbital bone so even if he does suit up with a mask he might not be anywhere close to 100 percent.
Even with Embiid and his 11.7 rebounds per game during the regular season, Philadelphia ranked just 23rd in the league in rebound rate. Without him, they've been getting killed on the glass, with the Heat boasting a plus-10 rebounding margin in each of the first two games of this series.
Adebayo had just two rebounds until midway through the third quarter of Wednesday's contest and still finished with nine boards. He led the team with 10.1 rpg during the regular season and has grabbed at least 11 boards in three of his last five games.
With the O/U on his rebounds total ticking down from 10.5 on Wednesday to 9.5 this morning and then to 8.5 after Embiid was upgraded, we're taking the Over.
Pick: Bam Adebayo Over 8.5 rebounds (-108)
Harden hand-offs
James Harden isn't the shot-maker and volume scorer that he used to be, but he's still a productive passer that has a high usage rate and does an excellent job of kicking the ball out. He was second in the league with 10.3 assists per game during the regular season and averaged 10.2 apg in the first round versus the Raptors.
Harden had nine assists in Game 2 despite often kicking the ball out to teammates that missed wide-open shots. That was the same story in Game 1 with the Sixers going an ugly 0-10 from three-point range on Harden's passes.
The 76ers shot 0-10 from 3-pt off James Harden's passes.
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) May 3, 2022
That was tied for the worst 3-pt shooting off a player's passes in the last 8 playoffs.
The Celtics shot 0-10 on threes off Isaiah Thomas' passes in 2016. pic.twitter.com/eEs0gPx2u6
Matter of fact, through the first two games of this series, Harden is averaging 13.5 potential assists per game according to the player tracking passes filter on NBA.com.
The 76ers need to start hitting open shots when they get the chance, especially guys like Danny Green and Georges Niang, who have struggled in this series despite being 40% shooters from deep in their careers. Look for positive regression to set in for Philly's shooters at home and expect Harden's assists numbers to benefit as a result, especially if Embiid plays.
Pick: Harden Over 9.5 assists (-118)
Slight Dwight
It's becoming increasingly obvious that the Mavericks can't keep starting Dwight Powell at center. Every time the big man was on the floor in Game 2, the Suns would go on a run and Dallas had a minus-18 rating in the 13 minutes that Powell played.
The Mavs were minus-10 in the 16 minutes he logged in Game 1, so it's apparent that they need to keep him off the court as much as possible if they want to keep things close. To be fair, they have tried fading him out of the rotation lately, with Powell averaging just 13.3 minutes, 2.7 points, and 0.8 rebounds per game over the last three contests.
Powell's points plus rebounds total is set at just 8.5 tonight, but we're expecting plenty of bench time for the big man and taking the Under.
Pick: Dwight Powell Under 8.5 points + rebounds (-111)
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