Monday sucks as we wave bye-bye to the weekend, but helping us cushion that blow is a pair of Game 4 matchups in the NBA Playoffs: Celtics at Bucks and Grizzlies at Warriors.
These series are into the nitty-gritty as books and bettors know a lot about these four teams, which means NBA bettors need to dig deep into the nuances of these conference semifinals, injury impacts, and coaching adjustments.
We do just that with our free NBA player prop pick for May 9.
NBA player props for May 9
Picks made on 5/9/2022 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Tatum and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day
Considering the high level of play from Boston star Jayson Tatum since the beginning of 2022, his lousy Game 3 performance is like falling face-first off the Empire State Building.
Tatum finished Game 3 shooting just 4-for-19 from the floor – including 0-for-6 on triples – scoring a mere 10 points in a 103-101 loss to the Milwaukee Bucks. What’s more, Tatum dished out only three assists, not only struggling to hit shots but finding them for others.
The Bucks have done a solid job defending Boston’s slick small forward but for the most part, Tatum has been able to generate offense one way or the other. He recorded assist totals of six and eight in the opening two games and has recorded at least six dimes in five of his seven playoff performances so far.
Milwaukee is getting inside Tatum’s shorts on the perimeter and helping aggressively when he does drive, trying to strand him in mid-range land where he’s shooting just 18% for this series. If Tatum keeps coming up cold, he has to decide to become a playmaker and find cutters or kickouts for smarter shot selections.
The Celtics weren’t the best playmaking offense in the regular season, sitting 13th in assists per field goal made, but have needed extra passes to penetrate the Bucks defense in this round, boasting a conference semifinal-best assist percentage of 73.5%.
We like Tatum to spark Boston with his passing in a dire Game 4 in Milwaukee tonight and top his assist prop of 5.5 helpers.
Pick: Jayson Tatum Over 5.5 assists (-114)
Buck stops here
Milwaukee Bucks’ big man Brook Lopez had a solid showing in Game 3, scoring 13 points and grabbing 10 rebounds despite foul trouble dampening his efforts.
Lopez gives the Bucks a notable size advantage against a smaller Boston frontcourt which tops out at 6-foot-9. That’s helped the 7-footer swat six blocks this series to go along with three steals thanks to his lengthy wingspan.
The Celtics were more aggressive getting inside in Game 3, scoring 32 points in the paint – after efforts of 20 and 24 PITP in the opening two games – and could take that approach again in Game 4, given how poorly they shot the ball Saturday.
All that traffic inside means more opportunities for Lopez to slam the door shut or scoop up an errant pass. His blocks + steals combo prop is set at 2.5 for tonight – a bar he’s played above in three of his last five games.
It’s a solid prop in terms of probability, given Boston's schemes and Lopez’s size advantage – save for any early foul trouble limiting the Bucks' big guy. However, at plus-money, we’ll roll the dice.
Pick: Brook Lopez Over 2.5 blocks + steals (+160)
Feel the pain, Bane
With Ja Morant likely out of action for Game 4, the Memphis Grizzlies will look to their backcourt support to chip in with ball-handling duties at Golden State tonight.
That means shooting guard Desmond Bane could find himself playing point more than he’d like, rather than feeding off of Morant’s energy and thriving in open space when defenses collapse on the Grizzlies’ superstar. Bane will see an uptick in touches either way, which also means the promise of an uptick in turnovers.
The Warriors had been playing passive perimeter defense in this series, mixing in heavy help-side man with zone sets to keep Morant out of the paint. Without that threat in Game 4, expect the Dubs to dial up the pressure with more man-to-man matchups.
Bane has recorded four turnovers in three games so far in the conference semifinals and is averaging 1.7 turnovers in the playoffs, including a couple of rough games at the tail end of the Minnesota series. He’s still fighting through a lingering back injury and will draw the ire of the Warriors' defense with Morant MIA, prompting at least two turnovers in a pressure-packed Game 4.
Pick: Desmond Bane Over 1.5 turnovers (-135)
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