After a drama-filled and injury-fraught weekend, the NBA keeps rolling tonight with a five-game slate that features the 11-0 Cleveland Cavaliers.
Though we’ve also got some tank candidates on the schedule, the NBA player props market offers up some high-value wagers, especially with some of the league’s leakiest defenses in action.
Check out my top three NBA picks for Monday, November 11, including two players set for bigger roles.
Best NBA player props today
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Jalen Williams Over 19.5 points (-120 at bet365) -
Jose Alvarado Over 20.5 pts+ast (-115 at bet365) -
Donovan Mitchell Over 24.5 points (-110 at bet365)
Picks made on 11-10 at 2:10 p.m. ET.
NBA player props for November 11
Prop bet #1: Jalen Williams Over 19.5 points
The Oklahoma City Thunder pecking order after Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been largely fluid this year, but Chet Holmgren’s hip injury may have shifted the ecosystem.
Jalen Williams was already putting up solid numbers with the Thunder at full strength, but he’s one of the likeliest candidates to soak up the 11 shots per game vacated by Holmgren.
That makes him a value pick for the Over on a points O/U of 19.5 against the Los Angeles Clippers tonight.
Williams is averaging 21.5 ppg in his last four outings, shooting 55% or better from the field in each of those contests, and his physicality will be needed on both ends of the floor without Chet.
Playing off SGA, he should have chances to attack a scrambling defense, and he had a 25-point night against the Clippers back in January.
The Thunder are just inside the Top 10 in points per game this year (115.7) and I’m banking on Williams helping maintain that kind of pace here.
Prop bet #2: Jose Alvarado Over 20.5 points + assists
These are tough times for the New Orleans Pelicans, with a monster injury list that includes a hamstring issue for Zion Williamson.
But that opens up opportunities for the back end of the roster — and I’m looking at Jose Alvarado props tonight, with Dejounte Murray and C.J. McCollum still sidelined.
In such a makeshift starting five, Alvarado has no choice but to dominate the ball, acting as a de facto No.2 next to Brandon Ingram.
So, I’m loading up on the Over for Alvarado’s combined points and assists. He’s blown past the 20.5 line in his last three games, headlined by 27 points and five dimes against the Cleveland Cavaliers last week.
Even in a bleak 115-88 loss to the Orlando Magic last time out, Alvarado led the Pelicans in field-goal attempts and assists.
The volume will be there and a matchup with the Brooklyn Nets should be a good spot to attack. Sign me up for the Over.
Prop bet #3: Donovan Mitchell Over 24.5 points
The scary part about the Cleveland Cavaliers’ relentless start is that they’re brushing teams aside without needing heroics from Donovan Mitchell.
Mitchell has been able to step back and share the spotlight with Darius Garland and Evan Mobley, and his scoring numbers have been solid but a little less spectacular than usual (22.5 ppg, 47% shooting).
But I’m buying into some fireworks here against the Chicago Bulls’ shaky defense and taking the Over on the Mitchell points prop.
The magic is still there — Mitchell has posted 25 or more points four times this year — and he finished with 30 points or more twice against the Bulls last season.
Cleveland looks revitalized and more balanced under Kenny Atkinson, but Mitchell is still the No.1 guy and I expect him to provide a reminder of that tonight as the Cavs try to move to 12-0 against a Chicago team that’s 1-4 in November.
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NBA odds today
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