Whether Easter Monday is the end of your long weekend or the start of your week, the NBA Playoffs have two Round 1 games waiting for you tonight.
In the East, the Detroit Pistons try to get even with the New York Knicks. In the West, the Denver Nuggets look to take a 2-0 lead over the Los Angeles Clippers.
I dive into the long list of NBA player props for Monday’s matchups and give my best NBA picks and predictions for Monday, April 21.
Best NBA player props today
Porter Over 5.5 rebounds (-110 at bet365) 
Cunningham Over 1.5 threes (-120 at bet365) 
Towns Over 1.5 threes (+105 at bet365)
NBA player props for April 21
Michael Porter Jr. Over 5.5 rebounds (-110 at bet365)
Denver Nuggets interim head coach David Adelman has zero patience for passive play in the postseason, which is why Michael Porter Jr. logged just 26 minutes in Game 1’s win over the Los Angeles Clippers.
Adelman opted to go with Russell Westbrook's aggression for extended stretches, rather than giving Porter his usual floor time, leaving him to finish with only four shots and three points.
The coach talked about a lack of engagement from his small forward then pointed to those lengthy breaks as reason why Porter didn’t play as much, as he didn’t want to bring him in cold and “stunt runs” that Denver had made.
"There’s two ways to look at that," Adelman told the media about Porter’s playing time. "You can say, well, I chose not to play Michael. Or, you can say — should I put Michael in a really unfair situation? Should I do that to him? I don’t think so."
While Porter’s offense couldn’t find a flow over those choppy 26 minutes, he did haul down four rebounds. That finished below his rebounding prop total of 7.5 for Saturday’s game and drags his Game 2 number down to 5.5 O/U — a significant decrease from this standard prop range of 6.5 to 7.5 boards.
The 6-foot-10 forward averaged seven rebounds on the season and he was pulling down more than eight boards a night over his final 29 regular-season outings.
He’s hit the glass for six or more rebounds in 13 of his last 19 games before Saturday’s effort and player projections for Game 2 — based on a return to regular minutes — range from 6.4 rebounds to 7.3.
My projection sits at 6.8 boards from MPJ, which should have the Over 5.5 rebounds priced closer to -190 rather than -110. Of course, this all hinges on Adelman’s approach to his playing time tonight, which didn’t sound like a permanent plan.
Cade Cunningham Over 1.5 threes (-120 at bet365)
Playoff jitters may have played a role in an 8-for-21 shooting night (and six turnovers) from Detroit Pistons star Cade Cunningham, who was making his career postseason debut at Madison Square Garden on Saturday.
That’s not to take away from the New York Knicks’ defense, more specifically the job OG Anunoby did on Cunningham, who was just 2-for-8 from the floor with Anunoby in pursuit.
Cunningham’s bad day included a 1-for-4 record from beyond the 3-point arc. That was just the second time in the last seven games that Cunningham has failed to hit at least two triples.
On the season, he made 2.1 of his six 3-point attempts per outing and hit at least two from long range in each of his four matchups with New York in the regular season (13-for-25 from outside in those meetings).
The Knicks aren’t great at protecting the perimeter, watching foes fire at a 36.8% clip from distance (fifth-highest) on the year. And while Cunningham struggled from deep in Game 1, the rest of the Pistons shot a collective 14-for-28 from 3-point range.
Detroit knows it needs to get Cunningham going early on if it wants to avoid a 0-2 hole heading home. With Detroit set as 6.5-point underdogs, game script says the Pistons are trailing and need big buckets from beyond the arc from their star scorer.
Projections all come at 2.0 or higher for Cunningham’s 3-point makes, with my number at 2.25 triples. Given that forecast, the Over 1.5 3-pointers should be juiced to -160 but you can find it at Over 1.5 -120.
Karl Anthony Towns Over 1.5 3-Pointers (+105 at bet365)
It was a tremendous New York playoff debut for Karl-Anthony Towns in Game 1. Not only did the Knicks’ big man stuff the stat sheet but he was also vital in plugging up the Pistons’ plans on the defensive end.
Towns finished with 23 points on 10-for-14 shooting but went 1-for-3 from outside the arc. That output played Under his 3-pointer prop of 1.5 O/U and marked the sixth time in KAT’s last seven games that he’s failed to top his triple total, which was as high as 2.5 O/U back in late March.
That power outage from the perimeter is skewing KAT’s prop markets and has the Over 1.5 triples for Game 2 at plus money across the industry.
Towns is shooting just 33% from distance in that recent cold stretch, which is a sharp decline from his 42% success rate on the season. He averaged two triples on 4.7 attempts per outing and had a hot hand from deep in the second half of the schedule, making 2.4 of 5.5 attempts in a 20-game stretch from early February to late March.
Before Saturday’s playoff opener with Detroit, Towns has previous missed his only 3-point attempt in 29 minutes versus the Pistons in his final regular season appearance. However, in the two prior matchups with Detroit, KAT went 4-for-9 and 3-for-6 from long range.
Today’s NBA player models all sit north of two 3-pointers from Towns, boiling down to a projection of 2.1 makes. That forecast gives a lot of value to the Over 1.5 at +105.
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NBA odds today
Here are the full NBA odds for all of today’s matchups.
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