Best NBA Player Props Today: Ingram Plays Role of Facilitator

If the Pelicans want to pull off a massive comeback vs. the Thunder, they will need more out of Brandon Ingram. However, this doesn't have to manifest in his points total, as Jon Metler points out in his favorite NBA player prop picks tonight.

Jon Metler - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Jon Metler • Betting Analyst
Apr 29, 2024 • 11:53 ET • 4 min read
Brandon Ingram New Orleans Pelicans NBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers will look to keep their season alive against Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets, and we have searched through the NBA odds to find you the best NBA player prop bets as part of tonight's slate. 

Like the Lakers, the New Orleans Pelicans will also look to stave off elimination against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Will the Thunder be barking once again in their postgame interview, or will the Pelicans finally show up for a game?

Find out which NBA player props I'm backing in my free NBA picks and predictions for Monday, April 29th.

Best NBA player props today

Picks made on 4-29 at 7:00 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.

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NBA player props for April 29

Prop bet #1: More Russ, no fuss

I've been slightly nervous about pursuing any Over bets on D'Angelo Russell or Austin Reaves in this series because their minutes could be reduced due to their perimeter defense. It's already challenging enough to slow Nikola Jokic down, and it becomes even more difficult when your defense is weak at the point of attack against Jamal Murray. 

When the Los Angeles Lakers won Game 4, Russell played 40 minutes while Reaves only played 29. This boosts my confidence in Russell's playing time, which is why I'm focusing on his assists prop. Not only did Russell play 40 minutes with Reaves spending more time on the bench, but the Lakers also won. After eleven losses in a row to the Denver Nuggets, Russell played 40 minutes and had the highest plus-minus on the Lakers at +15.

This suggests that if anyone is headed to the bench for defensive reasons, it will be Reaves, but there's also another factor that could help secure Russell's minutes: Murray and Reggie Jackson are both tagged as questionable. If Murray is unable to play, the Lakers might not even seek more perimeter defense, which would benefit Russell's playing time.

Russell only had four assists in Game 4, but those came from 11 potential assists, leading the team. Once again, this occurred in a victory, so why would the Lakers limit Russell's involvement in the offense? I also like the fact that Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is the primary defender on Russell because it encourages him to pass more in the pick-and-roll. Whenever Russell sees Murray guarding him, he becomes more interested in scoring.

Russell is projected for 5.4 assists, which allows us to price the Over 4.5 assists at -152, but it is available at DraftKings at +114.

D'Angelo Russell prop: Over 4.5 assists (+114 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Giddey gumdrops

Josh Giddey dropped six dimes in 31 minutes on Saturday against the New Orleans Pelicans, and while I don't expect him to see the same minutes again, we have a nice edge on his assists prop.

The 31 minutes were somewhat inflated because Jalen Williams had to briefly leave with an eye injury. It's more realistic to project Giddey in the 24-minute range, which is why I like this prop. We aren't banking on high minutes to establish our edge, just in case the Pelicans already have their eyes on Cancun and don't show up.

With the Pelicans assigning Herb Jones as the primary defender on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and giving a lot of attention to Williams as well, it opens the door for Giddey to collect some potential assists. Giddey consistently catches the ball against a rotating defense because he is the one person the Pelicans are going to leave open on the perimeter. When this happens, Giddey has options. He can make an additional pass to a better shooter or drive the lane and create for someone else.

The Thunder are also using Giddey as the screener in the pick-and-roll for SGA and Williams. If the Pelicans blitz either of the Thunder guards, they can then find Giddey, and he can create for his teammates with one less defensive player in the picture.

Giddey is projected for 4.7 assists, allowing us to price the Over 3.5 assists at -206, but it is available at FanDuel at -130. Based on this projection, this bet shows a positive expected value of 19%.

Josh Giddey prop: Over 3.5 assists (-130 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #3: Ingram changes gear

I'm not going to lie, buyer beware with this bet on Brandon Ingram. The Pelicans are down 0-3 to the Oklahoma City Thunder, and who knows if they will even show up. I'd like to think they bring some fight in front of the home fans, just like the Lakers did, but you never know, especially since they are missing Zion Williamson.

That being said, if this game is remotely competitive, I love the price on Ingram's assists prop. The Pelicans need Ingram's offense if they are going to win, but he hasn't been able to shake Lu Dort's defense in this series and has been held below 20 points in all three games.

If you're Ingram, at what point do you flip the script and try to create a little more for your teammates instead of scoring? It's not that he's not creating. He's averaging 8.3 potential assists per game in the series, but Ingram averaged 10.5 in the regular season, and it wasn't uncommon for him to have 12 to 15 in a game.

The best game plan might be to use Ingram more as a facilitator than a scorer. Some of the best offense I saw from the Pelicans during the regular season was when Ingram was on the ball and creating for others.

Ingram's total has also dropped from 5.5 to 4.5 because he has gone Under the number in all three games, which is also a significant factor as to why we are hitting the button here.

Ingram is projected to have 5.5 assists. This allows us to price the Over 4.5 assists at -176, but it is available at DraftKings at -108.

Brandon Ingram prop: Over 4.5 assists (-108 at DraftKings)

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Betting Analyst

Having played, coached, and officiated basketball, Jon immediately turned his attention to the NBA when he entered the sports betting space. Sports betting has been a part of his life for over 14 years, and he specializes in futures markets and player props, particularly in the NBA. In pursuit of value, he keeps a close eye on movements in the betting markets. He believes strongly in analytics and staying ahead of the curve and, when possible, lets the numbers do the talking.

Jon hosts the NBA Prop Picks show powered by EV Analytics, which airs on the Covers YouTube channel, and he is also a regular guest on Before You Bet with Joe Osborne.

Jon keeps his eye on the NBA betting markets 365 days a year and uses 10-plus sportsbooks to always shop around for the best price for whichever bet he is looking to place. If there are NBA games on for that current day, you can guarantee that Jon woke up way too early, has already had some caffeine, and is ready to begin placing bets on NBA player props.

His favorite sportsbooks are Pinnacle, Caesars, and Betano, with the first two being where he places the majority of his bets, while Betano sneaks into the top three because of their creative futures markets for the NBA.

Before joining Covers in December 2023, Jon worked as a sports betting analyst at Sportsbook Review. He also holds a Bachelor's degree from the University of Windsor, where he studied Human Kinetics with a focus on Sports Studies.

Jon's top piece of advice for sports bettors: "Any outcome is possible in sports betting; you're just hunting for one that is more probable than the sportsbooks have it priced."

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