We've got a busy Wednesday on the hardwood with 10 games on the NBA betting board, which means hundreds of player props to choose from.
Today I'm backing a resurgent big man after a slow start to the year, fading a young guard who has been forced into a starting role, and expecting Spencer Dinwiddie to thrive with the Rockets focusing on slowing down Luka Doncic.
Here are my best free NBA player prop picks for November 16.
NBA player props for November 16
Picks made on 11/16/2022 at 12:05 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Cooking with Capela
Hawks' big man Clint Capela has been on a tear lately and is coming off a strong performance against the Bucks where he scored 19 points and pulled down 10 boards.
Capela was averaging just 8.8 points in 26.3 minutes per game through his first eight contests of the season, but in six games since then has bumped those numbers up to 15.3 ppg in 28.7 mpg.
The Boston Celtics were the league's best defensive team last season but have dropped off massively in that area, currently ranking 19th in both defensive rating and points per game allowed (114.1).
They've been especially vulnerable inside the paint without their best interior defender — Robert Williams III — who will be sidelined until the new year.
With Capela's points total set at just 10.5, a number he has surpassed in seven of his last nine games, take the Over.
Clint Capela Prop: Over 10.5 points (-102)
Turnover machine
The Chicago Bulls are just 1-4 straight up (2-3 ATS) in their last five games and head to New Orleans as 3.5-point underdogs. Chicago has really missed point guard Lonzo Ball, who is sidelined indefinitely following knee surgery.
Ayo Dosunmu has slotted into Ball's spot in the starting lineup but his play has been uneven at best. Dosunmu has turned the ball over at least twice in seven of his last eight games.
The Pelicans do a good job of forcing turnovers and rank eighth in the league in opponent turnover rate. With the Over 1.5 on Dosunmu's turnovers paying out at +100, I'm hammering it.
Ayo Dosunmu Prop: Over 1.5 turnovers (+100)
Dinwiddie Dominates
The Houston Rockets have a league-worst 2-12 record thanks in large part to awful defense, surrendering the second-most points per game (118.1) in the NBA. Today they travel to Dallas to face off against the Mavericks who have won six of their last eight games (albeit without covering the spread in any of those contests).
The big name for Dallas is obviously MVP favorite Luka Doncic, but with defenses focused on stopping Cool Hand Luka, guard Spencer Dinwiddie has been able to get open looks.
Dinwiddie had a brutal game against Brooklyn last week, scoring just two points while going 1-for-8 from the field. Despite that ugly performance, Dinwiddie is still averaging 20.1 ppg on 47/43/88 shooting splits in seven contests this month.
The O/U on Dinwiddie's points is set at 18.5 tonight and he has dropped at least 20 points in five of his last seven games. Expect him to go Over that number against a fast-paced, defensively vulnerable Rockets squad.
Spencer Dinwiddie Prop: Over 18.5 points (-110)
