Hoops fans (and basketball bettors) can rejoice with the 2022-2023 NBA season tipping off on Tuesday night.
Although there are just a pair of games on the NBA betting board, all four teams have star-studded lineups led by big names like Joel Embiid, Jayson Tatum, LeBron James, and Stephen Curry.
We zero in on which stars will exceed or fail to live up to early season expectations with our best free NBA player prop picks for October 18.
NBA player props for October 18
Picks made on 10/18/2022 at 10:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Al Boardford
The first matchup of the day has the Boston Celtics hosting the Philadelphia 76ers as 2.5-point home faves. The Celtics will be missing center Robert Williams III until the middle of December, which will mean more minutes and rebounding opportunities for their other big man, Al Horford.
The 36-year-old is coming off a season where he averaged 29.1 minutes and 7.7 rebounds per game but those numbers ticked up to 35.4 mpg and 9.3 rpg in 23 playoff games.
Horford will likely see plenty of the floor in this matchup as Boston tries to contain MVP candidate, Joel Embiid. Despite Embiid, the Sixers ranked just 20th in the NBA last season in rebounding rate and were the worst team in the league on the offensive glass.
Although adding P.J. Tucker in the offseason will help a bit in that area, it won't be a huge upgrade and the veteran is listed as questionable for tonight. I'm taking the Over 7.5 on Horford's rebounds total.
Al Horford Prop: Over 7.5 rebounds (-130)
Selfless king
In the late game, the Golden State Warriors will begin the defense of their NBA championship when they welcome the Los Angeles Lakers to Chase Center.
The Lakers will look to turn things around after a massively disappointing 2022 campaign where they failed to make the playoffs despite entering with the second-best title odds.
Injuries played a role in that with All-NBA big man Anthony Davis missing 42 games with various injuries while LeBron James was sidelined for 26. When James was in the lineup he had to carry the scoring load, resulting in him averaging 30.3 points per game (the second-highest number of his career) but a modest 6.2 assists per game (his lowest number since 2012).
Davis is made of glass but he's listed as probable for tonight which means that LeBron doesn't need to be the No. 1 scoring option. In 108 career games alongside Davis, James has averaged 8.9 assists per game. Over his last six seasons, King James has dropped 8.5 apg as he has preferred to become even more of a facilitator at this stage of his career.
I'm taking the Over 5.5 on his assists total even though it's now juiced to at least -140 with bettors hammering that low number since it hit the odds board.
LeBron James Prop: Over 5.5 assists (-140)
Hot Curry
Although injuries certainly played a role in the Lakers' struggles last season, so did their poor defensive play which looked even worse due to their fast tempo. L.A. was 22nd in the league in opponent effective field goal percentage (54%) and 28th in scoring defense (115.1 ppg allowed).
That should mean a strong offensive game from the Warriors who have the perimeter shooters to avoid attacking AD in the paint and can instead pick them apart from the outside. And you can't mention outside shooting for Golden State without thinking about NBA Finals MVP Stephen Curry.
The two-time scoring champion actually hit one of the worst shooting slumps of his career last year when he averaged just 21.2 PPG on 37% shooting from the end of December until the end of January. Despite that uncharacteristic cold streak, he still finished the regular season with 25.5 ppg after leading the league with 32 ppg the previous year.
Sure the Dubs have other scoring options surrounding him now (including the improving Andrew Wiggins, a finally healthy Klay Thompson, and last year's breakout star Jordan Poole) but the points total for the baby-faced assassin still looks too low at 22.5.
Stephen Curry Prop: Over 22.5 points (-115)
